Is the Jalen Green breakout for real, or just a break from what’s real?

The Houston Rockets selected Jalen Green with the second pick of the 2021 NBA draft to usher in a new era of Rockets’ basketball. Taken ahead of Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, and Franz Wagner, Green was viewed as the best pure scorer in the draft due to his rare athletic gifts.

His combination of explosion and mid-flight contortion is reminiscent of a young Michael Jordan. At times, he will make you believe you’re watching a superhero with the way he flies. Yet, for all his gifts, Green hasn’t lived up to his draft position, that is until now.

Jalen Green’s breakout 

There is nothing quite as magical as a player breaking out. The NBA is brutal for young players, but watching a precocious talent figure it out on the fly is as breathtaking as it is satisfying. It’s like the scene when a newly-endowed superhero finally figures out how to harness their powers and the endless possibilities that come along with them. 

Jalen Green, in his third NBA season, is in the midst of a breakout. Since Mar. 29 (coincidentally leap day), Green has taken a massive leap, averaging 28.2 points per game on 61.3 percent true shooting over 13 games, compared to 17.6 points per game on 52.1 percent true shooting in the 58 games prior. 

The leap couldn’t have come at a better time for the Houston Rockets. Their 11-2 record since Mar. 29 has seen them surge to 36-35, only a half-game behind the Golden State Warriors for the final play-in spot in the Western Conference, and helped them weather Alperen Sengun’s injury absence. 

The high-volume scorer that Jalen Green was promised to be has finally arrived, but will he stay? The answer to that could determine if the Rockets make the play-in or watch as the competition plays game 83. 

Jalen Green’s rollercoaster act

Young guards are not known for their consistency. Scoring in the NBA is hard enough, but generating it on your own is at a whole other level. Green has had his fits and spurts throughout his career, but his past 13 games have been the best scoring stretch of his career. 

Before the Rockets’ Feb. 29 clash with the Phoenix Suns, Green was in the midst of a scoring slump not seen since his rookie season. His five-game rolling average for points per game in the four games preceding his breakout were 12.6, 14.0, 11.0, and 11.0. After two 34-point outbursts against the Suns, he dragged it up to 21.8, and since then it hasn’t dropped below 20.0, peaking at 34.4 points following his 41-point ravaging of the Utah Jazz.

The consistency of Jalen Green’s inconsistency has been frustrating for Rockets fans. There are spells where he’s an unstoppable bucket-getter, followed by prolonged stretches of ineptitude. If Green were an elite passer or defender, it’d be easier to stomach his inconsistent point production. But when all you offer are points, your points are the point. 

What’s driving Jalen Green’s breakout 

At the most basic level of analysis, Green’s production is tied to his 3-point shot. His 3-pointers made per game have a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.691 to his points per game (1.0 is perfect correlation, and 0 is no correlation), while his 3-point attempts per game comes in at 0.632, and his 3-point shooting percentage is 0.535. For a perimeter player, this is hardly an earth-shattering discovery, but it is incredibly important when discussing Green’s future. 

The peaks and valleys in Green’s scoring are largely driven by the fluctuations in his 3-point volume and efficiency. They’re the tectonic plates of his scoring, and as they move, they create the mountains of his tantalizing potential and the valleys of his frustrating lows. However, for a career 33.8 percent 3-point shooter, his increased proficiency from 3 can be viewed as either a significant improvement or a harbinger of impending decline. 

Over the past 13 games, Jalen Green has been unstoppable from beyond the arc. He’s shooting 40.9 percent from 3 on 10.2 attempts per game. Those figures would rank 23rd and third if maintained over a full season, and he’d be just a tad below Stephen Curry as the league’s most lethal high-volume 3-point shooter. 

In just about every tracked 3-point shooting category, Green has seen an explosion in his efficiency. Whether it’s catch and shoot or pull ups, early or in the middle of the shot clock, and off of no dribbles or more than seven, Green has seen his volume and efficiency improve, save for on one dribble 3-pointers. 

The most heartening trend for Green’s development is that he hasn’t been feasting on a steady stream of catch-and-shoot 3s, which have actually declined in frequency due to the overall uptick in 3-point volume. Instead, he has been generating his 3s the hard way, just like a star. 

Green has seen his efficiency and volume on pull-ups and multiple dribble 3-pointers grow by significant margins, meaning his efficiency has improved despite increased difficulty. Simply maintaining his 3-point efficiency, while taking on this new shot diet, would represent a significant improvement in 3-point shooting talent. 

Another interesting change, outside of what 3s Green is taking, is when he’s taking them. Over the past 13 games, he has seen a spike in 3-pointers taken very early and early in the shot clock, as well as an increase in 3s taken with between 15-7 seconds on the shot clock. Green has been absolutely lethal early in the shot clock, converting 51.9 percent of his 2.7 3-point attempts. However, his spike in 3-point volume and efficiency on mid-shot clock 3s is what’s most encouraging. 

Generally speaking, early shot clock shots are more efficient because they capture transition opportunities, and teams usually only opt for wide-open 3-pointers that early in the clock. Jacking up the volume of your early clock 3s is good for a player’s overall efficiency, but it doesn’t always mean you’re doing anything special. 

Mid- and late-clock 3s are a different beast. They’re almost always against a set defense and their degree of difficulty is generally higher. Green taking on a larger load of these 3s, while improving his efficiency, is what star players do. 

Jalen Green’s star-level impact

Catch-and-shoot 3s are the engine of modern hyper-efficient offense, as 3-point efficiency on catch-and-shoot jumpers has a 0.727 Pearson correlation coefficient to offensive rating, and the task of generating them falls to star caliber offensive player. A defense needs to be broken to generate the space necessary for a steady supply of catch-and-shoot opportunities, and the best offensive engines bend defenses to open up opportunities for their teammates.

The two most common avenues are through rim pressure or 3-point gravity, with many combining the two and using the threat of either to toy with defenses. Green’s improvement on off the dribble, pull-up, and mid-shot clock 3-pointers has unlocked his dormant gravity, and he has tailored his attack accordingly. 

Over the past 13 games, Green leaned heavily into the 3-pointer. Before March 29, only 6.0 of his 17.6 points per game came from 3s, but that figure has more than doubled to 12.6 since then. As a percentage of his total points, he has gone from generating 34.1 percent from 3-point range to 44.7 percent, and 62.2 percent of his 10.6 points per game increase has come from his improvement beyond the arc. 

The new-found 3-point gravity has helped Green ramp up the efficiency of his drives. In his past 13 games, he has averaged 10.1 drives per game, leading to 6.1 field goal attempts and 50.6 percent shooting. Those figures are a marked improvement over his full-season numbers of 9.3 drives and 4.9 field goal attempts per game on 45.4 percent shooting, and it has driven up his 2-point efficiency from 48.2 percent over his first 58 games to 55.1 percent in his last 13. 

While Green’s scoring has improved dramatically, he hasn’t yet started using it to set his teammates up. He’s averaging fewer assists per 36 minutes (3.4 to 3.3), even though his usage rate is up, and his pass percentage on drives has dipped from 25.9 percent to 22.1. However, with how efficiently Green is scoring the ball, passing, rightfully, should be a secondary concern. In time, Green will become better at using his scoring to open up opportunities for his teammates. 

Can Jalen Green keep it up?

Everything is clicking for Jalen Green right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s a new level that’ll stand the test of time. While Green hasn’t had a stretch this impressive in his career, he has had impressive scoring runs that were followed by serious fallow periods. To close out his rookie season, he scored 25, 30, 32, 33, 31, 30, 8, and 41 points in consecutive games (230 total points), which nearly equals his most recent eight-game run of 19, 16, 37, 26, 42, 26, 41, and 27 points (234 total points). 

Green’s 3-point shooting is also unlikely to stay at this level. Over his past 13 games, he has shot like Steph Curry, but for his career, he has been more Jordan Poole. The chasm between 40 percent 3-point shooting on 10 attempts a game and 33.3 percent shooting on seven attempts is massive, and his true talent almost assuredly rests somewhere in between. 

3-point shooting efficiency stabilizes at around 750 attempts, and Green has over 1,500 to his name at 33.8 percent. While the 132 3-pointers he has taken over the past 13 games have been exceptional, we’re still a season away before we can confidently say this is his new standard. 

His inconsistency is also another worry. Last season, he was better on catch-and-shoot 3s than pull-ups, but this season it has been reversed, and as a rookie, the figures were nearly identical. 

While it’s safe to say Green has underperformed this season on catch-and-shoot 3s, that cannot be said of his shooting on pull-ups, and it’s highly unlikely that he suddenly improved so significantly on both shots overnight. 

Another factor that needs to be considered is the Rockets’ quality of opponent over his hot streak. The Rockets have played teams with an average defensive rating of 117, compared to the league average of 115.5, and an average league defensive rating rank of 19.5. When we adjust for their opponents’ defensive ranks post-All-Star break, their defensive rating improves to 115.9, but the league average has also dropped to 113.3 in that period*, and their average league ranking is 21.3. Green deserves credit for torching poor defenses, but his hot streak coinciding with an easy slate of opponents can’t be ignored. 

*Defensive rating and rank is as of March 25

The 3-point shot, for better or for worse, is the key to Jalen Green’s game. When it’s clicking, he’s a legitimate lethal scorer who can carry a team, but when it’s clanking, he’s a drag on himself and his team. The question is: are the past 13 games the new or old Jalen Green? The true answer, unfortunately, will take time to answer, but there are a few encouraging signs that Green has actually progressed, even if not to such a significant degree. 

The first is that Green has seen his 3-point shooting improve across the board. If he was just scorching the nets on one particular type of shot, but everything else was the same, it’d be easier to scream variance and go along with your day. However, he’s been much better everywhere, which might still be fluky, but it’s a better suggestion that he has improved as an overall shooter. 

The next is about how he has simplified his approach. While so much has been spent on his 3-point shooting, Green has paired down his passing and focused on scoring. The result has been fewer assists per 36 minutes, but it has come with fewer turnovers as well. Now that Green just means go, it’s encouraging to see his improvement correlate with a shift in play. 

Jalen Green has had a breakthrough

Jalen Green hasn’t broken out, but he has had a breakthrough. His 3-point shooting will regress, and he’ll have a poor stretch, but that doesn’t mean he’ll go back to the old Jalen Green. This run has provided him and the Rockets with a blueprint for his success and raises the ceiling on what he can be as a 3-point shooter. Green needs to be allowed to get to his offense early and often and not be tasked with setting his teammates up.

Designing sets to get him going beyond the arc has to be a focus of the Rockets coaching staff going forward, as well as integrating them with Alperen Sengun’s play style. For as exceptional as Green has been, he hasn’t done nearly enough to replace Sengun in the Rockets’ offensive pecking order. 

After a roller coaster start to his career, Jalen Green is riding the highest he ever has. His 3-point shooting has been the key as it has allowed him to play more decisively than ever before. It’s up to the Rockets and Green to keep his shot hot and devise ways for him to contribute even when he’s ice-cold. The good times will eventually come to an end, but the lessons have been learned. Jalen Green is coming.