Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young: How does Caleb Williams compare to other number one picks so far?

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has only played three NFL games, but already we've seen the full gamut of takes on his play. Some armchair quarterbacks have pointed to some wild deep balls and ill-advised interceptions as signs that the former USC Trojan is going to be a bust. Some Bears fans have seen his laser arm and ability to throw off-platform and are already booking hotel reservations in Canton, Ohio for August 2049.

Caleb's performance against the Colts on Sunday was without a doubt his best as a pro, though it still did little to silence his doubters. The good: he threw for 363 yards and his first two NFL touchdowns. The bad: he got picked off twice, fumbled once, and the Bears lost the game.

There were certainly lots of reasons for Bears fans to be optimistic about Caleb's play despite the loss, but now a fresh batch of takes has arrived in the wake of the stellar game that Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels had on Monday Night Football. To be fair, Daniels was phenomenal. He set an NFL rookie record by completing over 91 percent of his passes on his way to 254 yards through the air, 39 yards on the ground and three total touchdowns in the 38-33 Commanders win. His 27-yard dime of a touchdown to Terry McLaurin with just over two minutes left was a fitting denouement to his historic day.

Right on cue, the so-called experts emerged from the woodwork to proclaim that the Bears made the wrong choice at number one. I get it, we live in a hot-take society where being loud is more important than being right, but with both rookies only having three games under their belts, I would urge everyone to step back and take a deep breath. Both Bears and Commanders fans alike should be excited for what the future holds, and if all goes according to plan, we'll have a decade or more of being able to compare these guys.

If we want to measure Caleb against anyone, let's widen our view and look at the last few quarterbacks who were also taken with the number one overall pick in the draft: Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow. There's a special kind of pressure that comes with having Roger Goodell call your name first. Some quarterbacks have enthusiastically embraced the mantle of being a franchise savior, while others have shrunk from the moment. Through three games, let's see how Caleb stacks up.

Caleb Williams vs. Bryce Young

Bryce Young may not have asked for any of this, but due to the trade that ended up landing him in Carolina and Caleb in Chicago, the two will always be compared.

Before Caleb ever pulled on a Bears uniform, the final grade on this trade seemed to be etched in stone. That's because Bears GM Ryan Poles was able to hoodwink the Panthers into giving up an excess of assets for the right to move up and take Young in the 2023 draft. Chicago still has the rights to Carolina's second-round pick next year, but in the meantime, they've been able to turn that one selection into Williams, DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson and Tory Taylor. Not too shabby!

Young is having a tough time of it lately, as he was benched after Week 2 in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle promptly lit up the Raiders for 36 points while throwing for more yards than Young ever has in a game, and the difference between new head coach Dave Canales' offense under the two quarterbacks could not have been more pronounced.

Time will tell if Young gets the chance to prove himself again, either in Carolina or elsewhere. The Panthers have reportedly rebuffed trade offers from other teams, which seems to indicate that they're not completely giving up on their young signal-caller, but as we saw when Frank Reich was fired last year after just 11 games as head coach, this is not a franchise that is known for patience.

Young hasn't been able to find his footing in the NFL, but how do the first three games of his career compare to Caleb? Let's take a look.

Young began his career with an 0-3 record (that would eventually stretch to 0-5 and 1-10), so as much as we shouldn't make wins a quarterback stat, that's a checkmark in Caleb's column. Caleb has the edge in passing yards too, with 630 compared to Young's 503.

Each QB threw for two touchdowns in his first two games, though Caleb has double the interceptions, with four compared to Young's two. He's also been sacked twice more than Young, 13-11. Young's 65 percent completion percentage is better than Caleb's 59 percent, though if you take out Caleb's rough debut against the Titans, he's at about 63 percent.

Much has been made about the supporting cast around the two quarterbacks. The Bears were said to have had the best situation that a number one pick has ever walked into before, but while it's true that Caleb is surrounded by skill position talent, Chicago's poor offensive line play has made his early life in the NFL difficult.

Whatever you believe about the Bears' talent level, Young was inarguably in a worse situation. The Panthers offensive line was also not good, which is why they doled out hefty contracts this offseason to a pair of guards, Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. There also wasn't much skill position talent around him, as his top weapons were an aging Adam Thielen and disappointing free agent signing Miles Sanders (the lesson — don't pay former Eagles running backs in free agency).

Bears fans would give anything to ensure that Caleb doesn't end up where Young is now, but just because the two had similar stat lines in their first three games doesn't mean that their careers will go the same way. Caleb is three inches taller than Young, with a bigger arm and a longer history of college success. He also has more weapons at his disposal and a defense that will do much of the heavy lifting when it comes to winning games. The Panthers had no such support for Young and a defense that finished the year bottom-five in points allowed.

Caleb Williams vs. Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence was viewed as a can't-miss prospect when the Jaguars took him first overall in the 2021 draft, but he's had mixed results early in his career.

Jacksonville liked Lawrence enough to reward him with a five-year, $275 million extension this offseason, though Lawrence's performance in the season's first three games already makes that look like a mistake. He's not only stagnated, it seems that he's regressed, and the Jaguars are one of the NFL's most disappointing teams at 0-3 after getting blown out by the Bills this past week.

Like Young, Lawrence began his career with five straight losses, and coincidentally, he attempted 118 passes in his first three games, the same exact number as Caleb. Whereas Caleb completed 70 of those throws though, Lawrence hit on 64 of them, but for 39 more yards.

Caleb has two touchdowns and four picks through three games, but Lawrence was much more risk-reward, with five touchdowns and seven picks of his own. He was also sacked only five times, and despite starting every game in his rookie year, he was never sacked more than three times in a game. Caleb has already been brought down four times by the Colts and seven times by the Texans.

The Jaguars scored more than 21 points only twice in Lawrence's entire rookie season — in a 23-20 home win over the Dolphins and in a 26-11 season-ending victory over the Colts. The only other win in Jacksonville's 3-14 campaign was a 9-6 win over Buffalo that wasn't unlike Caleb's first career game where the Bears defense carried him to a 24-17 win over the Titans.

Like Young, Lawrence had to deal with a coaching change before his rookie season even ended, as Urban Meyer was relieved of his duties after just 13 games amid some bad football and even worse PR. Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is already on the hot seat after three games. Will Caleb be put in the same position as Lawrence and Young?

Caleb Williams vs. Joe Burrow

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has undoubtedly been the best of the bunch of the recent number-one picks. He led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in just his second year and has proven to be one of the few quarterbacks capable of going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Burrow hit the ground running in his rookie season, though, like the other quarterbacks we've talked about today, he also didn't have many wins to show for it. Burrow went 2-7-1 in his first year before tearing up his knee, with two losses and a tie in his first three games.

Burrow directed arguably the greatest college offense of all time as he led LSU to the national championship, and the Bengals didn't hold back when it came to letting him throw the ball once he reached the pros. He attempted 141 passes in his first three games, and twice he threw for over 300 yards. He also boasted a 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, though he was sacked once more than Caleb.

Burrow took a beating his rookie year, as he was sacked three times or more in six of 10 games. This led to the debate the following year of whether the Bengals should draft Penei Sewell to help protect him, or draft Burrow's teammate Ja'Marr Chase to give him an elite wideout to throw to. The Bengals ultimately opted to go with Chase, and though he's without a doubt been one of the best receivers in the NFL, the amount of times Burrow has been sacked and injured in his over four years in the league makes me wonder if Cincinnati GM Duke Tobin would do things differently if he could go back in time.

Burrow's career arc should be used as a guidepost for how to handle Caleb and his development. The Bears should be prioritizing the offensive line to protect their best asset, while also letting him learn on the job by throwing freely without worrying so much about wins and losses. Burrow attempted at least 30 passes every game in his rookie year, and even after sustaining a catastrophic injury, he was already clearly one of the best quarterbacks in the league by his sophomore season.

A lot can happen with a number-one pick. Young, Burrow and Lawrence have all had wildly divergent career paths, but the book is not yet written on any of them. Go back even further and you'll find Baker Mayfield, who was discarded by the Browns but has experienced a career renaissance in Tampa Bay after bouncing around the league.

The Bears obviously hope that Caleb is more Joe Burrow than Bryce Young, but time will tell. The next chapter in Caleb's story is this Sunday when he takes on fellow top overall pick Matthew Stafford and the Rams at Soldier Field.