First Pitch: Why Kenley Jansen trade rumors don't necessarily mean Red Sox waving white flag on 2024

2024 was expected to be more of a retooling year than a year of competing for the Boston Red Sox judging by what they did over the offseason. Despite clear needs on their roster, Boston opted to spend very little money and mostly run back a roster that finished last in the AL East in 2023. They even showed a willingness to trade their closer, Kenley Jansen.

Jansen didn't go anywhere, and the Red Sox have gotten off to a solid start all things considered. They've dealt with a myriad of injuries, but still enter Tuesday's action at 29-29 on the season. They might be 9.5 games out of the AL East, but they're 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, meaning they're right in the thick of the race.

Despite Boston's place in the standings, USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that the Red Sox are planning on trading Jansen by this year's trade deadline. Trading away a closer when you have a chance for a postseason spot might sound like giving up on the year, but in this case, that isn't entirely accurate. Here are some reasons why.

Why the Red Sox would want to trade Kenley Jansen

First, let's discuss why the Red Sox might even want to trade Kenley in the first place.

The Red Sox trading Jansen while they're competing for a postseason spot wouldn't look great, but their reasoning does make sense They don't plan on bringing him back. Jansen is a free agent at the end of the season, and Boston wants to make sure they get something for him rather than let him walk for nothing.

That sounds exactly like something a seller would do, but trading one player to get value in return does not mean the Red Sox will be full-on sellers. It doesn't even mean the Red Sox are going to trade Jansen for a prospect. It just means they'll be trading him for something.

Red Sox can trade Jansen for a player who can help at another position

Let's say the Red Sox do trade Jansen. They should still have enough bullpen help to get by, and who's to say they won't get something worthwhile for him at another position?

Thanks in large part to their injuries, the Red Sox have several holes on their roster. Can Kenley net them a short-term solution at first base or shortstop? Can Kenley get them some starting pitching depth? Can Kenley get them a younger reliever with more team control?

The assumption is that the Red Sox will trade Jansen for a player in A-ball nowhere near the majors. All the report says is that Jansen will be traded. It does not say the kind of player Boston is targeting in return. The Red Sox can trade Jansen while making their team more well-rounded in the process. Their bullpen should be just fine without him.

Red Sox have built a deep bullpen that should be fine without Jansen

The Red Sox are where they are this season because of their pitching. It feels crazy to say, because all everyone did this offseason was crucify their pitching, but their 3.24 staff ERA ranks third in the majors only behind the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies.

Their rotation has been getting most of the credit, and deservingly so, but their bullpen has been outstanding as well. Their 3.42 bullpen ERA is tied for fifth with the Oakland Athletics in the majors, and that's despite their relievers throwing the sixth-most innings. They also rank second in the majors only behind the Cleveland Guardians with 2.7 fWAR from their bullpen. They easily have one of the five best bullpens in the majors right now.

While trading Jansen would undoubtedly make that unit worse, they have pieces in place to be fine without Kenley.

Greg Weissert, Chris Martin, Brennan Bernardino, Justin Slaten, and Cam Booser have all made at least 15 appearances with a sub-3.40 ERA. Guys like Josh Winckowski and Zack Kelly who are currently in the minors have pitched well in the majors as well when given the chance. That right there is a list of seven guys capable of getting outs in relief not including Jansen.

Kenley Jansen is far from the elite reliever he once was, especially when he pitches at home

Kenley Jansen has cemented himself as one of the greatest closers of all time, but he's 36 years old now and not the same guy as he once was. He's still good, don't get me wrong, but he's not Dodgers Kenley. In his brief Red Sox career, he hasn't even been any good when pitching at Fenway Park.

Jansen was an All-Star last season but he was a different guy at home (4.87 ERA in 23 appearances) than he was on the road (2.59 ERA in 28 appearances). Three of his four blown saves came at Fenway Park. Three of his six losses came at home. The same trend has held true this season.

Jansen has a 5.59 ERA in ten appearances at home while he has yet to allow an earned run on the road. His lone blown save came at home. His only loss came at home. It's hard to explain why this is happening, but the sample isn't so small anymore. If he can't pitch at Fenway, what's the point of keeping him around anyway?

The Red Sox would likely take a bit of a hit by trading Jansen, but shipping him off should not eliminate them from contention. They have enough bullpen depth to survive, and Jansen is not the pitcher he once was. If the Red Sox fall out of contention, it'll likely be for other reasons.