March Madness 2024 Bubble Watch: First Four Out, Last Four In, more on Feb. 27
It's getting down to brass tacks for teams on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Only two weeks remain in the regular season for most conferences, and in the case of leagues like the WCC or the Missouri Valley it's really just one, meaning every game matters if you're trying to land a coveted at-large bid to March Madness.
We've had some significant movement week-to-week in FanSided's Bubble Watch as a few teams made big moves up the board while others slid out of the field entirely. Read on for a look at the latest in the world of the bubble as the picture remains as murky as ever. Quadrant records from the NET Rankings have been added this week to add some context into how the selection committee may compare these profiles since quality wins was a key factor cited in the committee's Top 16 Seed Reveal on Feb. 17.
Note: Records and NET Rankings are current as of Feb. 27. Teams currently leading their respective conferences are not eligible for Bubble Watch since they have been projected to receive their league's automatic bid.
March Madness Bubble Watch: Last Four Byes
Team | Conference | Record | NET | Quad 1 Record | Quad 2 Record | Quad 3/4 Record | Last Game | Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seton Hall | Big East | 18-9 (11-5) | 61 | 5-5 | 3-2 | 8-2 | W 76-64 Vs. Butler | At No. 12 Creighton 2/28 |
Nebraska | Big Ten | 20-8 (10-7) | 41 | 4-6 | 3-2 | 13-0 | W 73-55 Vs. Minnesota | At Ohio State 2/29 |
Gonzaga | WCC | 22-6 (12-2) | 21 | 1-5 | 2-1 | 18-0 | W 94-81 vs. Santa Clara | At San Francisco 2/29 |
Nevada | Mountain West | 22-6 (9-5) | 42 | 5-4 | 1-1 | 15-1 | W 84-63 vs. San Jose State | At Colorado State 2/27 |
Seton Hall did good work last week by sweeping St. John's and Butler to move to the last four byes. The NET doesn't love the Pirates thanks to their two Quad 3 losses but an 8-7 record against the Top 2 quadrants, including five Quad 1 wins, is not a profile that should be sweating ahead of Selection Sunday.
One of the more under-the-radar big wins last week for a bubble team came when Nebraska won at Indiana by 15, giving the Cornhuskers their second road win of the season and their first in Big Ten play. Thursday's trip to Ohio State is tricky but gettable for Nebraska, which can feel very good about their NCAA Tournament prospects if they win their final three games of the regular season.
Gonzaga appears to have righted the ship but the biggest thing working against them is their 1-5 record in Quad 1 games. This week's trip to San Francisco and Saint Mary's provides two more Quad 1 opportunities for the Bulldogs, who need at least a split to feel good heading into the conference tournament.
Nevada did some tidy work last week to go 2-0 and maintain their position on the bubble. Tuesday's trip to Colorado State would be a nice one to get but the more important result may be avoiding a home loss to Fresno State, which would add a bad loss to their resume.