MLB Home Run Derby predictions: Can anyone beat Pete Alonso?

When is the Home Run Derby and who is participating?

The MLB All-Star week festivities will kick off on Friday, July 12. You can find the full schedule of events here but the T-Mobile Home Run Derby tends to draw the most attention. The derby will begin at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN on Monday, July 15. 

Those that will be participating in one of baseball’s most entertaining events include Gunnar Henderson, Alec Bohm, Bobby Witt Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Jose Ramirez and Pete Alonso. Watching Pete Alonso put on a show in the Home Run Derby has become an All-Star Week tradition. Can anyone knock off the two-time champion in 2024? 

Participants 2024 home run numbers

• Gunnar Henderson — 27
• Marcell Ozuna — 23
• Jose Ramirez — 23
• Pete Alonso — 18
• Bobby Witt Jr. — 15
• Alec Bohm — 11

Who has the best chance to beat Pete Alonso? 

Just because Gunnar Henderson has the most home runs of anyone in the field does not mean he is the automatic favorite. From the sheer experience Pete Alonso has participating in the Home Run Derby, he is expected to claim his third title. 

However, with the new format of the derby this year, things could get a little more interesting. In years past, rounds were only timed. This gave Alonso a huge advantage with his short compact swing. Now rounds are three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first) and hitters get a bonus three outs. This means as long as hitters keep launching, they keep hitting. This new rule gives everyone a chance, regardless of time. 

The lack of experience in this event and major spotlight on young stars Gunnar Henderson, Alec Bohm and Bobby Witt Jr. could cost them. The pressure to hit the ball out of the yard on every swing often gets the best of young sluggers. 

Marcell Ozuna may be picked by many to challenge Alonso but the way his first half of the season is wrapping up indicates he likely won’t be a threat. Ozuna went through a slump which he admitted was caused by trying to lift the ball out of the park to reach 30 homers by the break. With his focus over the last few weeks to drive the ball the opposite way, the Home Run Derby may not be his forte. 

Jose Ramirez may have the best chance to take down Pete Alonso. He is now in his 12th season in the league and has consistently shown power from both sides of the plate throughout his entire career. We don’t know which batter’s box Ramirez will dig into but regardless, he appears to be Alonso’s biggest threat.