MLB Insider: Why the Blue Jays are unlikely to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette

Entering Thursday, the Toronto Blue Jays are 22-26 and in last place in the American League West. The record has fueled speculation about how they could approach the trade deadline, with rival executives speculating that a teardown could be coming. Of course, that has led to questions about the future of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

The speculation is valid. After all, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette are signed through 2025. By trading them now, Toronto would maximize any potential haul as the acquiring team(s) would have 1.5 years of control for each player. But the strong likelihood is that the Blue Jays will hold onto each player, barring an offer the team cannot refuse.

What has always been the most likely option, as previously written here, is that the Blue Jays will trade players on expiring contracts such as Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier and Yimi Garcia, among others.

In that case, the Blue Jays would acquire future assets for players that they are unlikely to re-sign as free agents in the offseason. But they would remain in position to contend in 2025 by keeping Guerrero Jr. and Bichette and adding around them after the 2024 season.

Why trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette makes little sense for Blue Jays

Besides, trading Guerrero Jr. and Bichette now would have major consequences on numerous fronts. One, it would signal to the clubhouse that the team is punting on the 2024 season. Two, it would further upset a fanbase after coming up empty in the Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto pursuits. Three, it could make adding a star via free agency in 2024 and beyond even more difficult.

Guerrero Jr., 25, would surely net the Blue Jays a haul in a trade. When he’s right, he’s one of the most tantalizing talents in baseball. He’s bounced back after a slow start to the season, hitting .279/.374/.385 with a .759 OPS, four home runs and 21 RBI. His home run numbers are drastically down; he has hit at least 26 homers the last three years, including 48 in 2021.

Bichette, meanwhile, is much more complicated. He’s hitting a mere .226/.284/.327 this season and has struggled mightily at the plate. His value has never been lower and by potentially trading him now, the Blue Jays would be selling a talented young infielder for pennies on the dollar. Teams will surely check in in an attempt to buy low, but it’s difficult to imagine the Blue Jays being motivated to pull the trigger on a trade.

By holding onto Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, the Blue Jays’ trade deadline would become much less interesting. But it has been, and continues to be, the most likely scenario. That both players will remain in Toronto for the entirety of the 2024 season.