Every possible NL Wild Card scenario from Braves-Mets doubleheader on Monday

When the final two games of the series featuring the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves at Truist Park were postponed due to Hurricane Helene to be made up later as a doubleheader, it felt inevitable that both games would be crucial. Sure enough, that's exactly how it played out.

Just about every scenario that had to play out on Sunday to ensure that there would be the most possible chaos on Monday occurred. The New York Mets defeated the Milwaukee Brewers trimming their Magic Number to clinch a postseason berth down to 1. The Atlanta Braves lost their game to the Kansas City Royals keeping their Magic Number at 1. The Arizona Diamondbacks won their game, putting the pressure on both New York and Atlanta to perform well in Monday's doubleheader.

Atlanta, New York, and Arizona are now in a virtual tie in the NL Wild Card standings, but only two of the three teams can advance to the postseason. The Diamondbacks will finish with an 89-73 record, but with the Mets and Braves having two games left against each other, there are ways for any combination of the three teams to make it.

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What happens if the Braves sweep the Mets in doubleheader?

Sweeping the Mets in Monday's doubleheader is the dream scenario for the Braves and their fans. Not only will they ensure their own entrance into the postseason, but they would eliminate their NL East rivals from contention on the same day.

If the Braves win both, they'd be the No. 5 seed in the NL Wild Card race while the Diamondbacks would squeak in as the No. 6 seed. The Mets would finish with a record of 88-74, 1.0 game back of Arizona for that final spot.

As fun as that sounds for Braves fans, there's a good chance that the team will not go all-out to ensure New York misses out. The Braves announced that Spencer Schwellenbach will start Game 1 of the doubleheader with NL Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale waiting for a potential Game 2. If the Braves win Game 1, they almost certainly will push Sale back for the opener of the Wild Card series, giving the Mets greater odds to win Game 2. All Atlanta needs to get in is one win.

What happens if the Mets sweep the Braves in doubleheader?

The exact same written above can be written in reverse for the scenario of the Mets sweeping the doubleheader. The Mets would be the No. 5 seed, giving them a Wild Card Series matchup against the San Diego Padres. The Diamondbacks would squeak in as the No. 6 seed, and the Braves would miss out if they were swept on their home field.

New York will likely throw Luis Severino and Tylor Megill in the two games, but it's unclear which pitcher will start in which game. As is the case with Atlanta, the Mets only need one win to ensure that they get to the postseason, making it unlikely that they go all-out for a potential sweep.

What happens if Braves and Mets split Monday’s doubleheader?

Here's the one scenario that doesn't get the Diamondbacks into the postseason. If these teams split the doubleheader, they'll both get in thanks to them both holding the tiebreaker over Arizona.

It might seem unlikely that the Diamondbacks miss out since this is the only possible scenario in which that can happen, but as repeated above, whoever wins Game 1 will not have much of a reason to push for a sweep. Sure, it'd be nice to send your rivals home, but ensuring everyone is healthy and that the pitching staff is as rested as it possibly can be with the postseason starting the next day is more important for obvious reasons.

What is most interesting about this potential outcome, though, is that the Braves would hold the No. 5 seed over New York. This would happen because one win of the two games would give Atlanta the season series victory.