NL Wild Card clinching scenarios for Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks

With 28 of the 30 MLB teams entering their final games of the 2024 regular season, most of the postseason picture is finalized. The six teams set to represent the AL in the postseason are completely set with seeding for the final two Wild Card teams the only thing up in the air on the season's final day.

The National League, though, is a completely different story. Not only is seeding unknown, but the teams that will participate in the postseason are anyone's best guess. There are currently three teams battling for the final two Wild Card spots.

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How the Atlanta Braves can clinch a NL Wild Card berth: What needs to happen

The team best positioned to punch its ticket to the postseason as of this writing is the team that shouldn't even be in the race thanks to all of the adversity that they've had to deal with. That team is the Atlanta Braves.

With a huge win over the New York Mets before Hurricane Helene's arrival and two wins against a Kansas City Royals team that already clinched its spot in the postseason, the Braves enter Sunday's action with a record of 88-71. They're only 1.0 game ahead of the Mets and Diamondbacks, but with the season series clinched over Arizona and the lead in the season series against the Mets, the Braves are on the brink of clinching their spot.

All Atlanta needs to clinch on Sunday is a win OR a Diamondbacks loss. Either of those things happening ensures that Monday's scheduled doubleheader with the Mets will be meaningless on their end. Atlanta is scheduled to start Charlie Morton against a Royals team that is preparing for the postseason.

What is the Braves Magic Number?

The Braves Magic Number to clinch a postseason berth is down to one. All they need is a win themselves or an Arizona loss to ensure their spot is secure. Even if they fail to clinch Sunday, they'll be one win on Monday against the Mets away from clinching. This puts them in the best position.

How the New York Mets can clinch a NL Wild Card berth: What needs to happen

The New York Mets have lost three games in a row for the first time in over a month at the worst possible time, but even despite their struggles, they have the second-best odds to earn a postseason spot.

All the Mets need to happen is to beat the Milwaukee Brewers and for the Diamondbacks to lose to the San Diego Padres. If BOTH of those things happen, they're in. If only one or none of those things happen, they cannot clinch a postseason berth on Sunday.

Clinching on Sunday might be tough, but the bright side is that the team cannot be eliminated even if they lose and their competitors win. If the Mets lose and/or the Diamondbacks win, at least one of their two doubleheader games with the Braves will commence on Monday.

The possibility of a doubleheader occurring even if the Braves win on Sunday is why Braves fans should be rooting for one of their biggest rivals just one time.

What is the Mets Magic Number?

The Mets Magic Number over the Diamondbacks currently sits at two. The only scenario in which they can get in on Sunday, as stated prior, is if they win AND the Diamondbacks lose. Even if only one or neither of these things happen, the Mets can get in over Arizona with one or two wins on Monday, dependent on what Arizona does on Sunday.

How the Arizona Diamondbacks can clinch a NL Wild Card berth: What needs to happen

Thanks to back-to-back losses against the Padres, the Arizona Diamondbacks find themselves with the worst postseason odds of the three fighting for the final two spots. The Diamondbacks lost tiebreakers with both the Braves and the Mets, and lost the three-way tiebreaker as well, so the only conceivable way that they can get in is if they finish with a better record than both New York and Atlanta.

The only way that they can clinch on Sunday is if they win, and both the Mets and Braves lose. This would ensure that they finish with a better record than at least one of the two other teams, making Monday's doubleheader meaningless on their end and a fight between the NL East rivals for one spot that much more entertaining.

If the Diamondbacks lose and the Mets win, Arizona is eliminated. If the Diamondbacks lose and the Mets lose, they're still alive, but the situation is completely out of their hands and is dependent on the right result occurring on Monday. The same can be said about the scenario of them winning and either the Mets and/or Braves finding ways to win as well.

What is the Diamondbacks Magic Number?

Since the Diamondbacks start the day outside of the postseason picture and do not control their destiny, they do not currently have a magic number. Despite that, they can still clinch a postseason berth on Sunday if everything goes their way.