Potential Houston Astros reunion is a postseason meltdown in the making

In an unexpected twist of fate, Hector Neris is a free agent with little more than a month left in the MLB regular season. The Chicago Cubs DFA'd Neris and passed him through waivers on Tuesday, allowing the 35-year-old to canvass the league for a new home. One would imagine that Neris ends up with a contender in need of bullpen help.

News flash, just about every contender needs bullpen help.

There are a few obvious candidates — New York and Baltimore jockeying in the AL East, or Philadelphia, where Neris spent the first eight years of his career — but few stand out more than the Houston Astros. Neris spent the two prior seasons in Houston, where he won the World Series in 2022. The Astros are intimately familiar with what a healthy and productive Neris can accomplish on the postseason stage.

As fate would have it, the bullpen has been an unexpected weakness for the Astros all season. Houston spent historic money on Josh Hader, only for his production to crater. Ryan Pressly was recently placed on the IL, leaving a glaring hole in the Astros' late-relief crew.

It's almost like the baseball gods conspired to put Neris back in Houston. That is, assuming the Astros' front office makes a run.

But... should they?

Astros are obvious landing spot for Hector Neris, but should proceed with caution

It's important to realize why Neris is available. The Cubs didn't DFA him out of good faith. It was to prevent Chicago's tax bill from ballooning even further. Had Neris remained in Chicago and appeared in 14 more games before season's end, his $9 million option for next season would have transformed from a club option into a player option.

Simply put, Neris has not performed on par with his $9 million salary this season. The Cubs didn't want to run the risk of Neris putting them on the hook for another $9 million. Craig Counsell was a staunch defender of Neris and leaned on him as a closer following Adbert Alzolay's injury designation, but the production simply hasn't been there.

His 3.89 ERA looks innocent enough, but Neris' statistical profile displays troubling regression across the board. Neris was among the best soft-contact pitchers in the MLB last season. In 2024, he has been among the worst. His walks are up, his strikeouts are down, and he's simply conceding far too many base runners (1.52 WHIP). Neris has always allowed walks at an unhealthy clip, but it stands out more sharply when he's also getting rocked on a regular basis.

Sure, there isn't much risk to signing Neris. The Astros can add him for pennies on the dollar and hope that a change of scenery and less burdensome responsibilities lead to a surge in productivity. Neris plainly was not built to carry the Cubs bullpen as the go-to closer. He would presumably transition to a middle innings or setup role in Houston, perhaps seeing fewer truly high-leverage situations. That could help, but it does not change the fact that Neris is 35 and displaying clear signs of decline.

The Astros should not expect too much from Neris if he ends up signing back with Houston. Proceed with caution.