MLB Insider: Why I'm skeptical the Cubs will be trade deadline sellers

When the Chicago Cubs hired Craig Counsell as manager, the plan was not just to get to the postseason. It was to win championships. Multiple. His contract – a whopping five-year, $40 million contract that was the richest for a manager in baseball history – underscored that plan.

So far, the Cubs have been a disaster. They have dealt with injuries in the rotation and bullpen. They have lost 19 one-run games. The offense has been a huge disappointment. And the Cubs currently reside in last place in the National League Central, have a 39-46 record, and trail the first-place Milwaukee Brewers by 11 games.

Which has prompted the obvious question: will the Cubs sell?

Why I'm skeptical that Cubs will be trade deadline sellers

My current thought is that a trade deadline selloff is unlikely – for now. There is still a month left before the trade deadline, so the Cubs have ample time to go on a run and position themselves to buy. After all, the St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros and New York Mets – all teams that struggled in the first couple months of the regular season – have bounced back and put themselves back in playoff position.

Just look at what happened with the Cubs last season. In the first 85 games of the season, the Cubs were 40-45 and eight games back in the division. By July 31, the day of the trade deadline, they were 53-53 and only three games back in the division and went on to acquire Jeimer Candelario. A similar run this season is possible and the success of the Cardinals, Astros and Mets should give the Cubs a reason for optimism.

Jed Hoyer doesn't want to talk about Cubs selling just yet

But the Cubs’ current position is as bad as it has been in some time. When speaking with the media recently, team president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said, “I don’t think it’s time yet for that full conversation. But it’s just a reality that we have to play better in July. We’ve backed ourselves into a bit of a corner.”

Hoyer added: “We have to play well this month. I think you have to be a realist when you get to that point. But I don’t think that’s where we are mentally. You have to make the best decisions for the organization based on the hand you’re dealt that year. We’ll see what that is.”

If the Cubs do elect to sell, Cody Bellinger would be one of the most intriguing trade chips on the market. Bellinger, 28, is a former MVP, coming off a season in which he hit .307/.356/.525 with an .881 OPS, 26 home runs and 97 RBI. He’s signed for $30 million in 2024 and has player options for the 2025 and 2026 seasons, so it’s unlikely – yet possible – any acquiring team would have him for more than a postseason run.

But the Cubs hired Counsell and gave him the largest contract in baseball history for a reason. They’ll give him ample time to attempt to dig the franchise out of the hole it's currently in. Time is dwindling, but a trade deadline sell-off should not be done unless absolutely necessary. The Cubs aren’t at that point – at least not yet.