MLB Rumors: Cubs may have to wait until 2024 free agency to land this ace

The Chicago Cubs' offseason has been frightfully quiet since the team landed Craig Counsell on the biggest managerial contract in MLB history. Initially, there was hope Jed Hoyer and the front office could engineer multiple impact additions. Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were floated as early possibilities. And yet, we are in January and the Cubs have done little except watch Jeimer Candelario leave for a division rival.

Of course, there is plenty of time left for Chicago to change the narrative. Cody Bellinger's decision looms large. If the Cubs can convince the 28-year-old to re-sign, that would assuage a lot of concerns. That said, the Cubs are about to lose their No. 1 pitcher in Marcus Stroman. If Chicago wants to truly contend at the highest level, the rotation needs work. A lot of it.

Chicago hasn't been seriously mentioned as a candidate to sign either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. There are other quality arms on the market, such as Japanese southpaw Shota Imanaga, but none profile as proven top-line aces for a Chicago team in need of just that.

In lieu of free agents, Chicago could turn to the trade market. Several impressive names have been floating around the rumor mill lately, from White Sox ace Dylan Cease to Marlins up-and-comer Jesus Luzardo. One name often mentioned as a potential Cubs target is the Cleveland Guardians' Shane Bieber, who won the American League Cy Young award in 2020.

According to the latest report from ESPN's Jeff Passan, however, the Cubs might be out of luck.

"The chances of either Burnes and Bieber getting dealt in the coming months, though, are dwindling. They share a pair of traits that dampen their value: both are free agents at the end of the upcoming season and play for teams planning on contending for division titles."

The Guardians' desire to contend in 2023 — compounded by Bieber's waning value due to his contract situation — could keep him out of Chicago's grasp until 2024.

Cubs' chances of trading for Shane Bieber are 'dwindling'

Bieber would address the Cubs' need for experience in the starting rotation. Even at 28 years old, he is far more established than Chicago's current No. 1 ace, Justin Steele. Before last season, Bieber finished top seven in Cy Young voting three of the past four seasons. He has two All-Star berths on his résumé, and he is widely considered one of the American League's best pitchers when healthy.

Of course, the "when healthy" caveat has been the destroyer of many careers. Bieber made 21 starts and pitched 128.0 innings last season. He was pretty much healthy front-to-back in 2022, but he only managed 16 starts and 96.2 innings in 2021. Availability year-to-year is a concern, especially with his next contract factoring into the equation.

The Cubs shouldn't trade for Bieber unless there's reasonable confidence he can be re-signed. If the Guardians aren't keen to move off Bieber now, Chicago should still monitor the situation as the regular season progresses. If Cleveland doesn't stay in the AL Central race, the odds of Bieber being dealt — potentially at a significant discount — increase tenfold.

Bieber finished last season with a 6-6 record, posting a 3.80 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, and 107 strikeouts. It was his first season in five years without a single Cy Young vote or All-Star nod. Some of the indicators weren't great either. His hard-hit percentage (47.8) landed in the MLB's third percentile. On the other hand, Bieber was still in the 80th percentile for walk rate (6.4) and the 75th percentile for ground-ball percentage (47.5), per Baseball Savant. He's a command-oriented pitcher who strives to keep the ball inside the park.

He makes a lot of sense for Chicago as a buy-low candidate with the chance to lead the next half-decade of contention under Craig Counsell. But, with how the market landscape currently looks, the Cubs' fanbase should temper expectations when it comes to Bieber's actual availability.