First Pitch: Dave Dombrowski should ignore his first instinct with Phillies deadline plans
What a season it has been for the Philadelphia Phillies so far. At 58-32, they not only have the best record in the National League, but they have the best record in the majors. They lead the NL East comfortably by 7.5 games over the Atlanta Braves entering Tuesday's action.
This Phillies team has the makings of being the team that wins the World Series. They have an elite rotation, a deep bullpen, and a star-studded lineup. They've proven they can win in October too with back-to-back NLCS appearances and a World Series berth in 2022. The only thing missing is a World Series ring. They're searching for their first World Series win since 2008.
The Phillies having the record that they have means they'll be obvious buyers when the trade deadline arrives. The only question is what move(s) will president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski make?
MLB insiders Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo and Patrick Mooney tempered expectations for Phillies fans by saying this in an article for The Athletic ($).
"The Phillies are looking for role players and bullpen depth because they already have MVP-caliber talents and top-of-the-rotation starters who can swing playoff series. Different injury concerns could pop up between now and July 30 and shift priorities. Adding a new player can also be a delicate balance because it means subtracting someone else."
They're looking for role players and depth because they'd have too many stars if they made a big move? Am I reading that right? I can't say I've ever heard a team say "We're too talented and have to shoot lower."
Make no mistake. The time for Dombrowski and the Phillies to go all-in is right now. Dombrowski should strongly consider ditching his approach and going all-in for a variety of reasons.
The Phillies should go all-in because they have the prospects to acquire a game-changing talent
The Phillies have the opportunity to acquire a legitimate star in exchange for prospects. Sure, they might see those prospects succeed somewhere else in the future, but if they win a World Series because of the trade who cares?
They don't have the best farm system in the league, but they have several intriguing prospects that teams would value highly in trades that would make this Phillies team substantially better.
What if the Phillies can go out and get someone like Luis Robert Jr.? The White Sox would certainly covet Philadelphia's top prospect, Andrew Painter, but the Phillies probably have enough to go out and get him without trading Painter using guys like Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, and Mick Abel.
Even if they don't want to trade for a star player like Robert, what if they go out and get a Brent Rooker? He's more than a "role player" and would add a big bat to the lineup. Defense might be a concern, but they can simply out-slug everybody.
The bottom line here is will Dave Dombrowski really let prospects get in the way of what could be a World Series team? I'm not saying they should trade all of their top prospects, but if there's an offer out there that can seriously improve this team, how is this not the year to go for it? Dombrowski has a history of trading prospects, I don't see why he can't deal any of the good ones for a major upgrade.
The Phillies should go all-in as their core players continue to age
This Phillies team has some young pieces like Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh, but the core of this club is not young. They're not extremely old, but they're not young.
Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Trea Turner, arguably the four best position players on this team, are all over the age of 30. Harper, Schwarber, and Turner are closer to 30 than they are to 35, but these are their prime years. This is when they'll be at their best. By the time prospects come up, they'll be slowly declining. The Phillies should do what they can to field the best team while these guys are in their primes, and this is only the position players.
Zack Wheeler is 34. Aaron Nola is 31. Even their two All-Star relievers, Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm, are over the age of 30.
None of this is bad. The good teams have good players who are veterans. What it means is now is the time to strike. Don't worry about 2028 when you have a team good enough to win right now. By the time these guys are ready, the core of the team will not be performing at the elite level they are right now.
The Phillies should go all-in while the National League is relatively weak
Anything can happen in the postseason. Phillies fans know that better than anybody. Upsets happen all the time, which is part of what makes MLB playoffs so fun to watch. Even with that being said, the National League is relatively weak right now, and the Phillies should do what they can to assert themselves as the clear favorites.
The Atlanta Braves are without both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider for the season. Several of their key offensive players have had down years. Alex Anthopoulos will be active around the trade deadline, but the Phillies will almost certainly have more talent, especially if they make a big move themselves.
The Los Angeles Dodgers do not have Shohei Ohtani the pitcher. They have injury concerns with guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, and Clayton Kershaw. They're already without Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Emmet Sheehan for the season. The bottom of their order leaves a lot to be desired. Sure, they can make moves too, but their roster is flawed for this season as of this writing, and will presumably be better in 2025.
Again, upsets can happen, but the job of Dombrowski is to put his team in the best position to win. The National League is positioned in a way that the Phillies can make themselves clear favorites to win the Pennant. Prospects should not get in the way of that.
The Phillies should try and pull away from the pack. Do whatever they can to add more talent to an already talented squad. Winning the World Series would make trading any prospect worth their while.