3 Mets prospects who won’t survive the trade deadline and why

The New York Mets have been the 2024 season's Cinderella story. They kicked off the season with a disastrous start, putting them in prime position to sell on their players including the likes of Luis Severino and Pete Alonso.

But they've completely turned their season around. According to Baseball Reference, the 42-43 New York Mets have a 37.4 percent chance to make the postseason. FanGraphs gives the Mets a similar 32.7 percent chance of making it.

With such a promising stretch, the Mets are in a perfect position to buy over the next few weeks. That decision would mean New York would need to part ways with some of their top prospects to acquire the talent they need.

3. OF/1B Ryan Clifford (No. 4 Prospect)

The idea here is that if the Mets want to catch a big fish, they need to use big bait. Ryan Clifford is the perfect headliner for some of the blockbuster trades that the Mets may look to pursue. The Mets don't necessarily have a reason to trade him, but other organizations would be looking at him as a crucial part of any trade they make with the Mets.

Clifford, 20, is slashing .214/.386/.420 across 73 games in High-A and Double-A this season. Like a lot of top prospects, Clifford sees a huge increase in his OBP over his average because of his willingness to walk and opposing pitchers fear his bat. When he is getting hits, he's doing serious damage. The lefty holds a slugging percentage over .500 in Double-A due to his 20 extra-base hits in 43 games at that level.

The fact that Clifford is 20 years old and has shown the ability to hit for power while having the plate discipline to walk almost as much as he strikes out makes him a "can't miss" prospect. Sadly, for the Mets, they will need to move him if they want to acquire some of the bigger names in the market.

2. SS Jeremy Rodriguez (No. 13 Prospect)

I recently pitched the idea of the Mets moving their 18-year-old shortstop prospect, Jeremy Rodriguez, in a trade hypothetical that would bring White Sox starter Erick Fedde to the Big Apple. The deal was a one-for-one offer that brought equal value to both sides of the trade.

"The 18-year-old is the Mets 13th ranked prospect and comes with a ton of potential. He's a tremendous athlete who runs well and has shown promise both in the box and in the field. While he's typically a hit-over-power kind of hitter, this could change as he grows into his frame. The left-handed hitter is slashing .286/.382/.428 in 91 career games of rookie ball."

A ton of the selling teams in the market right now are more interested in the teenage, high potential, developable prospects rather than the 24-year-olds that can come straight up to the big leagues. It's why the Rays wanted to acquire the 20-year-old Gregory Barrios from the Brewers, rather than an older, lower-ceiling prospect.

This is why Rodriguez won't last with the Mets unless New York decides to take him completely off the board from trades. Nearly any deal that the Mets discuss this year could involve Rodriguez, whether he's the prospect involved in a one-for-one deal for a starter like Tyler Anderson or if he's the complementary piece in a deal for a huge arm like Garrett Crochet. The 18-year-old will garner a ton of attention from selling teams looking to upgrade their farm system.

1. RHP Jonah Tong (No. 20 Prospect)

Jonah Tong sits in a similar boat to Jeremy Rodriguez. He's a younger, high-potential prospect who's multiple years of development away from his big-league debut. He's a few years older than Rodriguez, but he's also a few steps higher than him in the minor leagues, where Tong currently sits in High-A.

Not only is Tong in High-A, but he's completely dominating that level this season, which is the very reason that many selling teams will have him on their target list. In 47.2 innings across 11 starts, the 21-year-old has struck out 63 hitters and holds an ERA of 3.02. He was even more dominant in Low-A, where he threw 18.2 shutout innings, striking out 36 hitters before receiving a promotion to the next level.

A lot of people believe that the buying teams are the only ones with trade targets. Yes, the Mets will look to target players like Erick Fedde, with specific guys that they want to fit their team. But the selling teams, like the White Sox, have their own target lists in farm systems around the league. Jonah Tong will be a highly targeted prospect by teams looking to sell before the deadline.