3 contenders that can afford to take on Javy Baez contract in Tarik Skubal trade
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All eyes are on the Detroit Tigers ahead of next week's MLB trade deadline. Not only will Detroit test the market for expiring contracts, such as Jack Flaherty, but their No. 1 ace and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal has come up in recent trade rumors.
It's unclear how seriously the Tigers will entertain Skubal offers. He's 27 with two years of team control left on his contract and Detroit, at some point in the near future, could emerge as a postseason threat in the AL Central. Alas, as one league source told Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, "everything has a price." If the Tigers opt to kick the can down the road and furnish their farm system with elite position prospects, well, Skubal will net a haul.
Only a couple teams have been seriously connected to Skubal — the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has the best collection of position prospects in the league, while Los Angeles' front office has carte blanche from ownership and an appetite for star-power. It's hard to mount a trade package good enough to acquire Skubal without completely tanking your farm system.
That said, there is another potential path to catching the Tigers' attention. What if a team offers to take on Javy Baez's albatross contract as a conduit to acquiring Skubal? It's a common practice, especially in basketball, for teams to attach value to financial dead weight in order to clean up their books. The Tigers can deploy that exact strategy here.
Trading Skubal requires more than simply getting off of Baez's contract — the Tigers would still need a prospect haul in return — but taking on Baez's contract could give teams with fewer top-end prospects a better chance at capturing Detroit's imagination. Baez has been unplayable for the Tigers in the third season of a six-year, $140 million deal.
Here are a few MLB contenders who can reasonably entertain such a concept.
3. Minnesota Twins could take on Javy Baez contract for a price
The Minnesota Twins are within four games of the first-place Guardians and comfortably on the Wild Card track despite losing Sonny Gray in the offseason. In lieu of their former ace, the Twins have received admirable production from Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson, and others, while Pablo Lopez sits atop the depth chart.
Despite their success, the Twins are a step behind last season. Another elite starting pitcher would do a lot of good — especially if it arrives in the form of Tarik Skubal, who is 11-3 through 20 starts on a stubbornly mediocre Tigers team. Skubal has the best fastball in the sport and a dangerous off-speed collection to keep batters guessing. His age, contract situation, and general trajectory should all appeal to Minnesota.
The Twins are equipped with the 19th-highest payroll in MLB right now. We have seen Minnesota operate cheaply in the past, but there are also examples of the Twins shelling out significant money for the right players. Now, obviously Javy Baez is not the right player. He also plays the same position as Carlos Correa, the Twins' most expensive cog. And yet, think of it as three years of down payment for Skubal. If he was offered to Minnesota for $25 million annually, we have to believe the Twins would leap at the opportunity.
Baez is a means to an end. The Twins still wouldn't owe a god-forsaken amount in luxury taxes, and Baez can operate as a middle infield depth piece with baggage the Twins don't particularly care about. Skubal arrives, forms a commanding 1-2 punch with Lopez atop the Minnesota rotation, and puts the Twins squarely on the map in a winnable American League. 'Tis a thought.
2. Cleveland Guardians
I can already hear your thoughts across space and time. "Another AL Central team? So the Tigers can stare their mistake in the face for the next decade?" That is a fair note, and frankly, Detroit fans probably don't want to watch Skubal hoist his first Cy Young trophy in Ohio State territory. Alas, the Cleveland Guardians are equipped with the MLB's No. 2 farm system, per Bleacher Report's latest rankings, and the Tigers need to focus on value in a Skubal trade — not petty rivalries.
If the Guards come in hot with a blockbuster collection of prospects and offer to take on the Baez contract, Detroit needs to at least hear them out. Cleveland has dominated at the plate all season, but pitching is a serious weakness when projecting ahead to the playoffs. Aside from 25-year-old Tanner Bibee, there isn't a starter in the regular rotation with a sub-4.00 ERA right now.
Funny enough, shortstop has been one of the few positions of weakness for Cleveland this season. That's not to say Javy Baez comes in and starts over Brayan Rocchio, but he could serve as a useful veteran leader and, if we want to operate optimistically, a mentor for the upstart 23-year-old. Baez would at the very least be in line for semi-regular ABs and the chance to restore his value a bit in a new locale.
The Guardians can suffer the weight of his contract with the MLB's fourth-lowest payroll. Cleveland is notoriously cheap, so paying $25 million to a sub-replacement level player isn't the front office's general M.O., but it's all for Skubal. He would address the Guards' biggest need and then some, cementing their claim on the top spot in the AL Central and fending off the surging Twins.
This scenario is nightmare fuel for Tigers fans and probably will not happen, so rest assured. But hey, in the realm of hypotheticals, the Guardians are the perfect team to engineer this particular trade.
1. Baltimore Orioles
Not to state the obvious, but the Baltimore Orioles should be all over Tarik Skubal. There's a pretty real chance Baltimore can get this deal across the finish line without taking back Baez — Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, and any number of other highly-ranked prospects could satisfy a Detroit team in need of viable position players. The whole point of the O's top-ranked farm system, aside from building out sustainable depth for the future, is to splurge on trades without undermining their entire prospect ecosystem.
Still, if the Tigers get bullish about offloading Baez, that is a risk the O's can justifably take. Baltimore has a bottom-six payroll despite its immense wealth of talent. Most of their best players, such as Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Jordan Westburg, have years of team control left on their contracts. Baltimore's roster won't get overly expensive for a while.
New ownership has shown a willingness to spend an extra dime or two to improve the roster. Corbin Burnes' upcoming free agency looms large, which could complicate their financial outlook a little bit. But, with Burnes' return far from guaranteed, the Orioles also need to think about potential replacements. Who better than the man currently outpacing Burnes in the Cy Young race, with two years of guaranteed team control left on his contract.
Skubal address the Orioles' primary need right now, and he gives them some Burnes insurance for the future. Baez would be buried beneath the wealth of young position talent in the Orioles' system, but it's a small price to pay for Skubal and the chance to one day re-sign Skubal, ideally when Baez's contract is a little less formidable.
It only limits the Orioles' future flexibility if new ownership gets cheap. If Baltimore really commits to this thing, they're in prime position to eat Baez's contract and reap the rewards of Skubal's exploits. Maybe it even helps them keep Jackson Holliday out of the trade.
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