MLB trade grades: Just how bad did Ross Atkins screw up the Teoscar Hernandez trade?

The Toronto Blue Jays were swept in the 2022 Wild Card round by the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre. They were shut out in one game and blew an 8-1 lead in the second game. Ross Atkins' response to that embarrassing defeat was to trade key contributors like Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in an effort to improve their team defense and bullpen.

It's safe to say that neither deal has aged wonderfully. There's still time to see who won the Gurriel trade with Daulton Varsho still north of the border, but as for the Hernandez trade, we already know who won. And it wasn't the Blue Jays.

The trade looks even worse for the Jays now that Hernandez won the Home Run Derby on Monday. Yes, he did it in a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform, but still. He's a player that the Jays should have never let get away. Even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knows that.

MLB Trade Grades: Teoscar Hernandez trade hits new low for Blue Jays after Home Run Derby win, All-Star Game appearance

Here's the initial deal that sent Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners in the 2022 offseason:

The Blue Jays acquired Erik Swanson, a pitcher they felt would really help their beleaguered bullpen, along with Adam Macko, an intriguing pitching prospect, for Hernandez, a player who was set to hit free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign. On the surface, it wasn't a brutal deal at the time since Swanson fit a bigger need and had more club control, plus the Jays got a prospect. In hindsight, it was brutal.

Hernandez had a bit of a down year for Seattle in 2023 as his .741 OPS a career-low for a full season. Still, he hit 26 home runs and drove in 93. He would've tied Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in long balls and would've been one RBI behind him. He would've been arguably the third-most productive hitter on last season's Jays team that was starved for offense behind just Guerrero and Bo Bichette, the team's two cornerstones.

Hernandez wound up departing Seattle after just one season for the Dodgers, but this is still probably a deal that the Mariners would've done again considering what they gave up to get Hernandez.

Erik Swanson was the exciting piece coming back to Toronto. He had been an integral part of Seattle's bullpen in 2022, posting a sparkling 1.57 ERA in 57 appearances. He was going to be a key set-up man for Jordan Romano, Toronto's closer. He wasn't as good in 2023, but he still had a sub-3.00 ERA and racked up 29 holds and four saves. This season, however, has been an entirely different story.

Swanson began the year on the IL and didn't look close to the same guy upon returning, posting a 9.22 ERA in 17 appearances. It got so bad to the point where Toronto sent him down to the minors in late May. His ERA is currently over 10.00 in the minors, and he has not been recalled since he was initially sent down.

He has another year of club control, but with how this season has gone, it's very possible that the Jays non-tender him in the offseason.

As for Macko, he's considered Toronto's No. 9 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, but that has more to do with the Jays having a poor system than it does with Macko being a great prospect. The 23-year-old southpaw has a 4.42 ERA in 15 starts at the AA level this season. He's fine, but far from a very exciting prospect.

In hindsight, the Jays should've simply held onto Hernandez. No, he's not a great defender, and yes, he was a free agent at the end of the 2023 campaign, but even if they let him go after 2023 they would've been better off having his power bat in their lineup.

Atkins looks a bit better since Hernandez didn't re-sign with the Mariners, but the fact of the matter is he traded a consistently productive All-Star outfielder to the Mariners, the team they had just lost to the season prior, in exchange for a reliever who was good for one season and a prospect who might not amount to anything. That's a bad trade any way you slice it.

Blue Jays trade grade: C-
Mariners trade grade: B+