National League pitching leaders at All-Star break and Cy Young candidates
By Joel Wagler
The last 2.5 months are going to be very interesting and exciting in the National League. Not only are there 12 teams still close enough to making the playoffs, but the Cy Young frontrunner might just be a 22-year old who made his debut on May 11.
Unlike the NL MVP race, which looks to be all locked up, the Cy Young race has more viable candidates.
NL pitching leaders at the All-Star break
Below are the major pitching statistics and who are the top three players in each category:
STATS | FIRST | SECOND | THIRD |
|---|---|---|---|
INNINGS | L. WEBB - 124.1 | A. NOLA - 119.2 | Z. WHEELER - 116.2 |
WINS | C. SALE - 13 | A. NOLA - 11 | 3 WITH 10 |
ERA | R. LOPEZ - 1.88 | C. SALE - 2.70 | Z. WHEELER - 2.70 |
WHIP | T. GLASNOW - 0.93 | C. SALE - 0.95 | Z. WHEELER - 0.99 |
STRIKEOUTS | D. CEASE - 149 | T. GLASNOW - 143 | C. SALE 140 |
K% | T. GLASNOW - 33.6 | C. SALE - 32.4 | D. CEASE - 31.9 |
BB% | M. MIKOLAS - 3.9 | L. WEBB - 5.5 | SALE/PFAADT - 5.6 |
SAVES | R. HELSLEY - 32 | K. FINNEGAN - 25 | TWO WITH 22 |
HOLDS | J. ROMERO - 26 | A. KITTREDGE - 25 | F. CRUZ - 21 |
WAR | C. SALE - 3.7 | C. SANCHEZ - 3.2 | T. GLASNOW - 3.1 |
It is interesting to note that if Paul Skenes had enough innings to qualify, he'd be second in ERA, first in WHIP, and first in K%. Barring something unforeseen, he'll be qualified by season's end.
Who has the best chance to win the NL Cy Young in 2024
As of now, Chris Sale has the best odds to win the NL Cy Young at +115, but Zack Wheeler (+155) and Skenes (+400) are close on his tail. No one else is listed at better than +2800.
It seems strange that Tyler Glasnow doesn't seem to be in contention here, but statistically, he is. if he can maintain his health upon return, and lower his ERA a bit, he could be in the conversation. Speaking of health, Sale will also need to be wary of his. He's already thrown more innings than he has since 2019, and it would be terrible to see his spectacular season derailed by injuries.
Wheeler is having yet another stalwart season at 34, and has the luxury of playing on the best team in the majors through the break. If he can maintain or improve on his numbers, he can be a factor when it comes down to the voting.
The dark horses here are two other Phillies' hurlers, Christopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez. Both have higher WARs than Wheeler does. If either can emerge from the pack, and the Phillies continue to win at the rate they, Sanchez or Suarez could pull off an upset.
After all of this, Skenes will make some waves. The Pirates are still firmly in contention for a wild card spot, currently sitting just 1.5 games out of the final slot. If they remain in the race, the Pirates might be willing to stretch Skenes a bit. If they fall out, they may shut him down early to limit his innings.
Whether it is a veteran like Sale, Wheeler, or Glasnow, or a young rookie like Skenes, there are plenty of good candidates for the Cy Young and a tight playoff chase. The NL is going to be a whole lot of fun to watch in the second half!
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