NBA Draft Lottery odds if the season ended today: Who picks No. 1?

14. Oklahoma City Thunder: 1st Overall Odds: 0.5-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 14th, 97.6-percent

The Thunder have remote odds to land the first overall pick, but they do have the Rockets’ first-round pick with a top-four protection. Their net rating is negative-0.7, suggesting they’ll be around .500 and the 14th overall pick. 

13. Phoenix Suns: 1st Overall Odds: 1-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 13th, 92.9-percent

The Suns’ 2024 first-round pick has two swap rights attached to it. If it finishes in the top-12, the Wizards can swap for the pick, and if it finishes 13-30, the Grizzlies can swap for it. However, the Grizzlies and Wizards have had such poor starts that right now, the Suns will likely only lose their pick through a swap if they finish with the first overall pick. The Suns have a +1.6 net rating, Bradley Beal hasn’t played yet, and Devin Booker has missed five of their seven games. The Suns are unlikely to finish in a lottery position.

12. Toronto Raptors: 1st Overall Odds: 1.5-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 12th, 86.1-percent

The Raptors’ negative-0.3 net rating has them pegged as a .500 team, but they owe their first-round pick, top-six protected, to the Spurs. If they don’t look like a lock for the play-in, they may hit the tank button to try and keep their pick. 

11. Portland Trailblazers: 1st Overall Odds: 2-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 11th, 77.6-percent

The Trailblazers owe a lottery-protected pick to the Bulls, but their negative-5.4 net rating suggests they’ll move up in the lottery standings and keep their pick. They’ve had a fun start to the season, but this is still a team in the early stages of a rebuild.