NBA Draft Lottery odds if the season ended today: Who picks No. 1?

The NBA season is almost two weeks old, but that doesn’t mean some teams shouldn’t already be looking ahead to the 2024 draft and their chances at the first overall pick.
Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards
Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards / Patrick Smith/GettyImages
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10. Houston Rockets: 1st Overall Odds: 3-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 10th, 65.9-percent

The Rockets owe their first-round pick, top-four protected, to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their negative-3.7 net rating is 21st in the NBA. The Rockets will want to move up in the standings, but if they start to slide, it may behoove them to tank hard to give themselves a better chance of keeping their pick. As of right now, they only have a 13.9-percent chance of keeping it. 

9. Sacramento Kings: 1st Overall Odds: 4.5-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 9th, 50.7-percent

The Kings owe the Hawks a lottery-protected first-round pick in 2024. Their negative-1.2 net rating has them pegged as a lottery-bound team, but they should see some on-court improvement. Whether or not that drags them out of the play-in remains to be seen. 

8. Miami Heat: 1st Overall Odds: 6-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 8th, 34.5-percent

The Heat’s negative-4.7 net rating backs up their 2-4 record. They’re likely better than they’ve shown to start the season, but this team might struggle to stay out of the lottery.

7. Charlotte Hornets: 1st Overall Odds: 7.5-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 8th, 34.1-percent

The Hornets owe the Spurs, via the Knicks, a lottery-protected first-round pick. Their negative-5.1 net rating reinforces the idea that they’ll be in the lottery. 

6. New York Knicks: 1st Overall Odds: 9-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 7th, 29.8-percent

The Knicks have a flat zero net rating and have played one of the most punishing schedules to start the season. In all likelihood, they’ll play their way out of the lottery.