NBA Draft Lottery odds if the season ended today: Who picks No. 1?

The NBA season is almost two weeks old, but that doesn’t mean some teams shouldn’t already be looking ahead to the 2024 draft and their chances at the first overall pick.

Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards
Memphis Grizzlies v Washington Wizards / Patrick Smith/GettyImages
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5. Utah Jazz: 1st Overall Odds: 10.5-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 7th, 26.7-percent

The Jazz owe a top-ten first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Their negative-7.2 net rating is the third worst in the league, but they’ve faced a brutal schedule. Chances are they’re better than their net rating, but they should retain significant odds to land the first overall pick. 

4. Chicago Bulls: 1st Overall Odds: 12.5-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 6th, 25.7-percent

The Bulls have been awful. Their negative-8.9 net rating is the second worst in the league, and they’re bottom six in offensive and defensive rating. Fortunately, they control their first-round pick this season. 

3. Detroit Pistons: 1st Overall Odds:14-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 6th, 26-percent

The Pistons owe a top-18 protected first-round pick to the Knicks that looks in no danger of conveying. While their negative-2.4 net rating suggests they’re likely to improve, they have faced one of the easiest schedules to start the season. The Pistons probably won’t have joint best odds for the first overall pick, but they probably won’t be in the backend of the lottery either. 

2. Memphis Grizzlies: 1st Overall Odds: 14-percent // Most Likely Pick & Odds: 5th, 47.9-percent

The Grizzlies started the season 0-6 with losses to the Wizards, Jazz, and Trailblazers. They secured their first win of the season against the Trailblazers on Sunday, but their negative-6.5 net rating and manageable schedule suggest they’re a team in trouble. The Grizzlies still have 18 more games to go without Ja Morant, and if they don’t turn things around soon, the season may be sunk before he comes back. 

1. Washington Wizards: 1st Overall Odds: 15-percent// Most Likely Pick & Odds: 5th, 27.8-percent

The Wizards have the best odds to land the first overall pick courtesy of a 1-percent boost from the Phoenix Suns. As part of the Bradley Beal trade, the Wizards secured an unprotected pick swap from Phoenix in 2024. While it’s unlikely the Suns end the season in the lottery, right now, it’s pushing them ahead of the Grizzlies and Pistons. The Wizards have the worst net rating in the league at negative-9.6, and it looks like they’ll retain joint-best odds for the first overall pick. 

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