NBA Draft Lottery odds if the season ended today: Who picks No. 1?
By Ian Levy
The NBA In-Season Tournament has added some new wrinkles and increased competitiveness to the early part of the regular season. But with group play completed and the knockout round set, fans of teams at the bottom of the standings are now free to begin dialing up Tankathon and tracking the NBA Draft Lottery odds.
There are some surprising teams in the mix for the No. 1 pick and not much separation between the team who currently has the worst record in the league (the Pistons) and those several slots above them. Here's how things look right now:
Updated NBA Draft Lottery odds:
PICK | TEAM | RECORD | TOP 4 PICK% | NO. 1 PICK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Pistons | 2-15 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
2 | Spurs | 3-14 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
3 | Wizards | 3-14 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
4 | Grizzlies | 3-13 | 48.1% | 12.5% |
5 | Bulls | 5-14 | 42.1% | 10.5% |
6 | Trail Blazers | 5-12 | 37.2% | 9.0% |
7 | Hornets | 5-11 | 32.0% | 7.5% |
8 | Jazz | 6-11 | 26.3% | 6.0% |
9 | Thunder (via OKC) | 7-9 | 20.3% | 4.5% |
10 | Spurs (via TOR) | 8-10 | 11.7% | 2.5% |
11 | Trail Blazers (via GSW) | 8-10 | 11.7% | 2.5% |
12 | Hawks | 8-9 | 7.1% | 1.5% |
13 | Pelicans | 9-9 | 4.8% | 1.0% |
14 | Rockets (via BKN) | 9-8 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
Which NBA teams have the best odds in the NBA Draft Lottery?
The Spurs may have been hoping for a few mor victories to start Victor Wembanyama's rookie season but they're in great shape as far as the draft goes. As of today, between their own pick and the pick they are owed from the Raptors, they have nearly a two-thirds chance of getting at least one top-four pick and a 16.5 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick for the second year in a row.
The only other team currently in position to have multiple lottery picks is the Portland Trail Blazers, who are owed the Warriors pick. They currently have a 43.9 percent chance of at least one of those picks landing in the top four and an 11.5 percent chance of one of them turning into the No. 1 pick.
Which teams have never won the NBA Draft Lottery?
Of the 12 teams currently holding at least one lottery pick we also have four of the nine teams that have never won the lottery since it was first implemented — the Grizzlies, Jazz, Hawks and Thunder. Given their current positions in the standings, there is a 24.5 percent chance that one of those four teams ends up with the No. 1 pick and removes themselves from this list.
The other five teams that have never won the NBA Draft Lottery are the Lakers, Heat, Nuggets, Mavericks and Pacers.
Who are the top prospects in the 2024 NBA Draft?
While this NBA Draft class lacks a clear-cut, consensus No. 1 pick like Victor Wembanyama was last year, there are numerous potential stars waiting to be plucked. Isaiah Collier is an explosive shot-creator and is tabbed by most analysts as the best point guard prospect in the class right now. His 3-point shot is a work in progress but he's nearly unstoppable off the dribble, has great size and vision and a knack for making tough shots.
Matas Buzelis and Ron Holland, both versatile forwards, are generally regarded as the best prospects with the G League Ignite. Buzelis may not have the chops to be a primary scorer but he has tremendous offensive versatility for his size (6-foot-10) and should be able to help in numerous ways. Holland is similar although with much greater physical tools and a wealth of versatility that leans more toward defense than offense.
In the "just imagine what that guy could be" category, we have Alexandre Sarr — a 7-foot-1 big with tremendous defensive upside, budding offensive versatility and remarkable fluidity and mobility. He's probably not going to ever be as perimeter-oriented as Chet Holmgren or Victor Wembanyama but he's the closest thing to that archetype in this class.
We're still more than six months away from the NBA Draft so there is plenty of time for the standings to shift and new prospects to emerge. But it's never too early to start scouting and getting excited.
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