Who every team should take No. 1 if they win the NBA Draft Lottery

The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Sunday, May 12. Around this time last year, the suspense around the association was palpable. It was more than a lottery to see which team lands the No. 1 pick — it was a lottery to see which team lands Victor Wembanyama, the greatest prospect in a generation.

We all know the story now. The San Antonio Spurs won, continuing a long tradition of elite 7-footers finding their way to the Alamo with the No. 1 pick. Wemby won Rookie of the Year unanimously. He is, in fact, the greatest NBA prospect in a generation.

It's not the same sensation this time around. The top of the 2024 draft is considerably weaker. There are several prospects vying for the No. 1 spot and it could depend on team fit and front office preferences. Odds are, a clear frontrunner won't emerge until late in the process. There certainly won't be one before we know the exact order.

So, the No. 1 pick isn't so essential this summer. That doesn't mean it is completely worthless. The flexibility and optionality provided by the No. 1 pick is unmatched. It's a nice perk, even in a less enthralling draft.

13 NBA teams have a chance to claim the No. 1 overall pick on Sunday (Oklahoma City owns Houston's first-round pick, but it is protected 1-4; the Rockets own Brooklyn's pick without protections or restrictions). Houston has two chances to win it. Let's go team by team, picking which prospect best fits the bill at No. 1.

You can read our full top 80 prospect rankings here.

Detroit Pistons

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Ron Holland, G League Ignite

The Detroit Pistons didn't botch the Cade Cunningham pick, but it has been hard to keep Cunningham on the floor healthy, and it has been even harder to put a respectable team around him. The Pistons are stuck in purgatory. Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren are all dudes, but how the pieces fit and grow together is unclear.

If the lottery gods bless Detroit with this pick, several viable options exist. The Pistons really need a hearty volume shooter, to the point where the Kentucky guards (Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham) are worth real consideration. That said, I'm ultimately hard-pressed to endorse undersized guards with severe defensive limitations in the No. 1 spot. Detroit should play it safe and go for the best wing bet in the draft — G League Ignite's Ron Holland.

He needs to answer questions about his 3-point shooting and decision-making, but Holland generally made the most of poor circumstances with a god-awful Ignite team. He led his group in scoring on okay-ish efficiency, made strides as a driver and pull-up shooter, and regularly made effort plays on both ends.

Holland competes hard, guards multiple positions at a high level, puts pressure on the rim with bursty straight-line drives. His 6-foot-8 size, athleticism, and versatility are a compelling mix for Detroit in this spot. He has a chance to cause a lot of problems for opposing offenses working in tandem with Ausar Thompson.

Washington Wizards

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda

Nikola Topic missed a healthy chunk of the season due to injury, but he dominated a lower level of competition with Mega MIS before being called up to Euroleague's Red Star. The 18-year-old is the most compelling initiator on the board — an explosive 6-foot-6 slasher who relentlessly pressures the rim and deploys a wide range of finishing moves.

The Washington Wizards need star power, as well as a proper table-setter. Tyus Jones is a free agent and could get pricey. Topic can step in as Washington's primary ball-handler, instantly making life easier on Kyle Kuzma, Deni Avdija, Bilal Coulibaly, and the Wizards' impressive collection of role players. Washington has struggled to land headlining talent in recent drafts, but several versatile, two-way wings is a good starting point. Topic can tie the pieces together and build the Wizards up.

Defense is a concern here, especially in Washington. Topic just doesn't move his feet well in space. Smart NBA offenses will target him relentlessly. Washington needs to find a back-line rim protector eventually, so there will be natural attention paid to names like Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan. At the end of the day, though, there isn't a more valuable find in the draft than a high-level creator. A true No. 1 option.

Topic has the chance to slice defenses apart, create advantages with his speed, and elevate those in his orbit. Does he shoot enough 3s? Is the defense too bad to overcome? There are several valid concerns, but in this draft, he's still the best upside bet if the Wizards land the first pick.

Charlotte Hornets

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Ron Holland, G League Ignite

Here we are again. Get used to the same few names popping up here. This is a fairly even draft, but there are a few prospects that have separated themselves at the top of boards (or at least my board). Also, upside and player archetype has to be considered here. The Charlotte Hornets are another prime landing spot for the Kentucky guards, but there's more value in a 6-foot-8 shot-creating wing than a 6-foot-1 shot-creating guard.

So, Ron Holland lands in Charlotte, ideally. He's the perfect wing complement to Brandon Miller. The Hornets already dealt P.J. Washington and Gordon Hayward. Miles Bridges could leave in free agency. The wing rotation needs a boost. Miller has developed quickly as a ball-handler and facilitator. LaMelo Ball is one of the NBA's premier connective passers and fast-break initiators. Both, however, can struggle to generate buckets at the rim.

Holland is a downhill menace, constantly attacking off the catch and hanging for finishes in the paint. His first step and rapid acceleration are valuable indicators of star upside, and he happens to complement Charlotte's core duo quite well.

Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan are going to come up here too, but Mark Williams deserves faith as the Hornets' defensive anchor. Holland is a more immediate fit without much overlap elsewhere on the roster.

Portland Trail Blazers

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Alex Sarr, Perth

Deandre Ayton came alive down the stretch this season. When he's focused and optimized, Ayton's physical gifts and skill package are difficult to ignore. And yet, the former No. 1 pick has been consistently underwhelming since his NBA debut in 2018. The Portland Trail Blazers have guards to spare, but a truly reliable defensive anchor and offensive play-finisher in the frontcourt would take Portland to the next level.

Enter Alex Sarr, the French 7-footer who spent last season with the NBL's Perth Wildcats. Sarr is the No. 1 prospect on a lot of boards. Experts love his exceptional blend of size and mobility. There simply aren't too many folks Sarr's size who can move as well as he can. Sarr is comfortable switching screens, sliding his feet with guards, and defending 1-5. There are very few actual five-position defenders in the NBA. Sarr could be one of them.

He has a ways to go developmentally, of course. Sarr is skinny. Bam Adebayo is so great because he can check a point guard, but he also has the strength to battle true fives in the post. Sarr is going to get obliterated by the Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic matchups. His lack of muscle pops up on offense too, where Sarr often falls away from the basket. He needs to play with more physicality.

Portland can afford to operate patiently and bet on Sarr's immense defensive ceiling. In fact, he'd probably look good next to Ayton in certain matchups, assuming the 3s fall often enough. Sarr has some intriguing flashes as a driver and pull-up shooter to really drive home the allure of upside at No. 1.

San Antonio Spurs

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda

The Spurs need a point guard. It's that simple. Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard are great fits in San Antonio, and Victor Wembanyama's presence on defense makes it easier to stomach the idea of a smaller guard. Even so, Nikola Topic's positional size and dynamic approach take the cake. The Spurs have never balked at the idea of international prospects, and Topic has flourished against the best non-US competition in the world.

Topic is going to lead the NBA in drives per game or come close to it if he gets the minutes. He is always on the attack, shifting gears and expertly uncorking bursts of speed to penetrate the defense and generate fissures that he can exploit. When he's not laying it up, Topic has excellent court vision to locate open shooters or a big ducking to the basket.

Wemby has the broadest catch radius in basketball. It seems so simple, but the Spurs would benefit immensely from a point guard who can consistently locate Wembanyama on lobs and spoon-feed simple finishes at the rim. He wows fans with all the perimeter flare, but Wemby's most efficient offense is catching and slamming within arm's reach of the basket.

Topic is going to struggle at the point of attack defensively, but he would have an all-world backstop — and soon-to-be perennial DPOY frontrunner — behind him with the Spurs. Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, and San Antonio's other core pieces all need better guard play, too. Topic is the pick here.

Toronto Raptors

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Alex Sarr, Perth

The Toronto Raptors can go several different directions here. The versatility of their core star, Scottie Barnes, is quite helpful. At the end of the day, though, Alex Sarr is the ultimate Masai Ujiri pick. Toronto loves to bet on tools. Sarr's ability to switch screens, anchor the paint, or roam in passing lanes — combined with Barnes' own defensive ground coverage — could launch Toronto's defense to the top of the NBA hierarchy one day.

Jakob Poeltl is cooked. He's still a perfectly adequate starting center, to be fair, but the Raptors are going in a different direction and that extension looks awful. He cannot prevent Toronto from addressing a long-term need in the frontcourt. It's unclear how much of a "true" center Sarr is, but that is his optimal position once he develops the functional strength necessary to guard NBA fives.

The Raptors bet on Sarr and Barnes developing into a premeire defensive fulcrum. On offense, Sarr has all the tools to become a nifty lob threat and play-finisher who can also space the floor, attack on straight-line drives, and pirouette for finishes in the post. Sarr requires a lot of polish on offense, but the tools are all present. He should have no trouble running the floor with Barnes and Immanuel Quickley, for starters. Toronto would also benefit from a stretch big, assuming Sarr gets the 3s falling at a healthy clip.

This was probably the worst season Toronto could have imagined after canning Nick Nurse. The front office has finally moved toward a rebuild, or at least a retool. Sarr is a potential franchise talent. At worst, he's going to complement the Raptors' stars and provide a defensive backbone.

Memphis Grizzlies

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Ron Holland, G League Ignite

Donovan Clingan is a popular pick to the Memphis Grizzlies in mock drafts. The UConn sophomore dominated the NCAA Tournament and is expected to garner looks in the No. 1 spot. A bruising 7-foot-2 rim protector and lob threat, Clingan could step effortlessly into the Steven Adams role for a Memphis team that has lacked size and physicality next to Jaren Jackson Jr. in recent years.

Some will point to Alex Sarr as the pick here, too — another 7-footer who can guard all over the floor and occupy different roles within the offense. He's JJJ-Lite.

And yet, the pick here is used on the wing. The Grizzlies' wing rotation has been a mess in recent years. The ascendance of GG Jackson complicates this pick somewhat, but Memphis intends to contend next season. Ja Morant's window is wide open, and the Grizzlies need to start taking advantage. Holland should be a day-one plus on defense. Meanwhile, he complements Morant off the catch. Memphis needs another consistent source of rim pressure and at-rim scoring. Holland can oblige. He is more polished than the 19-year-old Jackson, who relies on brute strength and tough shot-making.

Holland has much to prove in his own right, but the Grizzlies' safest bet is the interchangeable 6-foot-8 wing that can fit with different personnel packages, defend in the postseason, and score efficiently in a more refined role.

Utah Jazz

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda

The Utah Jazz have done the point guard by-committee approach in recent years. Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, and Kris Dunn are all players, but Utah still lacks a proper table-setter. George and Sexton are geared toward buckets; Dunn is an all-world defender who can struggle to generate the 3-point volume necessary to play extended minutes.

Topic has his own 3-point volume concerns, and he's a below-average defender. What the Jazz need is Topic's ability to create advantages with his dribble. Topic isn't a particularly advanced ball-handler, but he changes speeds at will, deploying subtle stutters and gear-shifts before blowing the doors off the defense and slicing his way to the rim. His acceleration and deceleration are special — a particularly trendy attribute as Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jalen Brunson light up the NBA Playoffs.

Lauri Markkanen is a tremendous second banana, but the Jazz don't have a first banana. That go-to star who initiates sets, creates from scratch and constantly demands attention. Topic has a chance to get there. Especially if he's surrounded by an elite off-ball scorer in Markkanen, as well as multiple complementary ball-handlers, plus shooters, and rim-runners.

Utah's egalitarian offensive approach works. Topic would change the calculus of the Jazz offense as a more ball-dominant creator, but he still spreads the wealth and promotes an unselfish brand of basketball. Equally dangerous initiating sets as he is exploding down the gullet of a rotating defense off the catch, Topic can thrive in different actions for Will Hardy.

Houston Rockets

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Alex Sarr, Perth

This is probably the most difficult team to analyze in the No. 1 spot. The Houston Rockets are blessed with depth at every position. Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet are dynamic on-ball creators. Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore are aggressive slashers on the wing. Alperen Sengun is an All-Star level five. Jabari Smith and Tari Eason are rangy stretch fours who can defend multiple positions. What do the Rockets need?

It's hard to say. Alex Sarr is probably the right pick, though. He gives Houston another 7-footer who has the potential to share the court with Sengun, offering weak-side rim protection and elite defensive ground coverage. At worst, Sarr is a high-level backup that can thrive in the matchups that Sengun struggles with.

There isn't a single prospect available to Houston that would start on day one, a credit to the Rockets and an indictment on the quality of this draft. Sarr has the chance to address the most glaring area of need — that of a high-level rim protector and versatile defensive backbone. He also gives Houston a potential alternative route if the Sengun-Green partnership fizzes out. That certainly feels possible after how Green finished the season in Sengun's absence.

The Rockets are essentially selecting for luxury here. Finding a new franchise cornerstone would be gravy. Ron Holland overlaps too strongly with Cam Whitmore, and Nikola Topic would have little utility in a backcourt that should strongly feature Jalen Green and Amen Thompson for years to come — not to mention Fred VanVleet right now. Kentucky's Reed Sheppard is a nice fit on paper, but again, it's hard to justify taking a 6-foot-2 guard at No. 1 and asking him to play off the ball.

Atlanta Hawks

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Ron Holland, G League Ignite

There real question here is what will the Altanta Hawks' roster look like next season? Is Trae Young sticking around, or does Atlanta smash the reset button? If Young gets traded, is Dejounte Murray also out the door? The Hawks need to pick a direction this summer. Maybe landing No. 1 overall gives Atlanta the confidence to blow it up. Or, maybe it provides the Hawks enough trade ammo to take a more aggressive approach.

Regardless, it's hard to figure out which prospect best fits Atlanta without knowing the Hawks' game plan. In general, if the same nucleus remains, my preference would be Ron Holland. The Hawks' wing rotation has fizzled out in recent years. De'Andre Hunter is a perfectly solid 3-and-D forward, but the A.J. Griffin sophomore leap never happened, and the Hawks' cannot seriously view Saddiq Bey as a key building block.

Alex Sarr would really benefit from the Hawks' playmaking apparatus on offense. He can also provide a natural successor to Clint Capela, should Atlanta grow weary of Onyeka Okongwu's future at the five spot. But, in terms of meaningfully improving the Hawks' outlook next season, Holland is the pick. He gives Atlanta some real shot-making juice on the wing — a bursty slasher who can pressure the rim, torch errant closeouts, and back up his offense with high-level defense.

The Hawks need to start getting stops on the perimeter. Once considered one of the league's top guard defenders, Dejounte has decided to stop putting in the requisite effort on that end. Holland can handle tough assignments and do some of the dirty work for a Hawks team in need of an edge.

Chicago Bulls

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Ron Holland, G League Ignite

Again, elite wings are the currency of NBA contenders, and the Chicago Bulls need to move the needle eventually. DeMar DeRozan's impending free agency is a crucial factor here, obviously. If the Bulls splurge to keep DeRozan around for a few more years, that limits Holland's opportunity quite a bit. The same goes for Zach LaVine — is he traded, or are the Bulls running it back?

Chicago would benefit from Alex Sarr's rangy defense and his ability to succeed Nikola Vucevic in the frontcourt (or co-exist in twin-tower lineups, which Billy Donovan experienced some success with in 2024). But, Holland offers the chance to develop a bonafide No. 1 scorer on the wing — an aggressive slasher with the potential to eventually replace the Bulls' outgoing, aging vets.

Holland and Coby White would form a potent duo on the perimeter. White has grown immeasurably as a self-creator and primary offensive fulcrum. It's time for Chicago to hand him the reins and take the training wheels off. Holland won't replace DeRozan on day one, but he can develop in tandem with White, allowing the Bulls to tank with a purpose. Let Holland and White learn each other; let them rise through trial and error. That is how smart front offices conduct a teardown.

The Bulls' front office, of course, has never really qualified as "smart." We don't know the direction Chicago takes or what it values in this spot. Maybe the Bulls go for a more surefire contributor, such as Donovan Clingan or Reed Sheppard. Or, maybe the Bulls opt for another playmaker to share the backcourt with Coby White. Nikola Topic shouldn't be ignored here. Still, from the cloud of uncertainty, Holland emerges as the safest bet for most teams.

Sacramento Kings

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Ron Holland, G League Ignite

The Sacramento Kings' needs are fairly straightforward. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox are a potent one-two punch, but the supporting cast is lacking for an aspiring contender. Ron Holland slides in naturally on the wing, giving Sacramento a more spry scorer in the Harrison Barnes role with a chance to develop a bonafide third star.

Again, Alex Sarr deserves a shout here. The Kings would benefit immensely from another 7-footer who can protect the rim and anchor the defense without eclipsing Sabonis on the offensive end. Sarr has the length and mobility to truly revive Sacramento's defense in concert with Sabonis. The primary concern would be Sarr's fit on offense — primarily, whether or not he hits enough 3s to actually share the floor with their All-Star center.

In the end, however, Holland gets the nod due to the greater certainty he provides as a prospect. A lot of Holland's skeptics cite worrying turnover numbers or a low 3-point percentage, but we cannot overstate how poor the basketball context was with G League Ignite. Holland was relied upon as the go-to scorer for a team with no high-level decision-makers and very poor spacing. That Holland managed 19.5 points on 46 percent shooting with so little help is a minor miracle.

With Sabonis wheeling and dealing out of two-man actions and Fox collapsing the defense with his speed, Holland would be primed to feast on spot-up 3s, straight-line drives, and simple finishes. He would also give the Kings some much-needed perimeter defense. If Holland's effort level and competitive spirit translates to the next level, he could be exactly what the doctor ordered for a stagnant Kings team.

Golden State Warriors

Ideal No. 1 Pick: Ron Holland, G League Ignite

This could be the Golden State Warriors' lifeline. Just imagine the "it's rigged!" comments. Even in a weak class, moving up to No. 1 would give the Warriors a chance to meaningfully alter the chemistry of a dying roster. Stephen Curry still has MVP-level gas in the tank, but his supporting cast is about to disintegrate. The Warriors were too old — it showed up in the Play-In game. They need length, athleticism, and perimeter defense.

Again, we turn to Ron Holland. A growing theme, I know. The Warriors could be tempted to take the Alex Sarr gamble, but Trayce Jackson-Davis looked awfully comfortable in the five spot toward the end of the season and the Warriors still need to keep their eye on the prize. Holland offers plenty of upside, but he can also contribute amply from day one. Maybe even as a starter, depending on how the Warriors manage their offense.

Andrew Wiggins was M.I.A. for too much of last season. Klay Thompson cannot defend anymore. There is some overlap with Jonathan Kuminga, but in reality, the Warriors would benefit from another rangy wing that can defend multiple positions and create advantages on offense. Golden State's spacing — primarily the partnership with Steph — could really unlock Holland as a slasher. The Warriors love to spread the wealth and stretch out the defense. Holland is a straight-line missile who can pressure the rim and occasionally even make high-level passing reads on the move.

This is a great spot for Holland, and a chance to start his career winning basketball games. The Warriors are thoroughly on the decline, but Holland has a chance to help right now while also setting the Warriors up for a brighter future, whenever that future ultimately arrives.