NBA Playoff check-in: What’s changed from the regular season?

Every NBA fan knows the playoffs are different from the regular season. It’s not that teams suddenly stop playing basketball, but every year there are subtle changes. When each game is a must-win and you’re up against the best teams in the world, there are no plays off, rotations shrink, and the margin for error evaporates. This is how the 2024 playoffs have differed from the regular season. 

*All stats as of May 13

How pace has changed in the NBA Playoffs

One of the most notable differences between the regular season and the playoffs has been the drop in pace. An average regular season NBA game was played at a pace of 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes, but that figure has slowed to 92.9 in the playoffs. A drop of 5.6 possessions per game equates to a 5.69 percent drop and is a big reason why scoring is down 8.9 points per game compared to the regular season. 

Every team has played at a slower pace in the playoffs than they did during the regular season, and each possession type has seen a slight drop off in pace. 

*stats via Inpredictable

Why teams play at a slower pace is likely the result of a few factors. As a consequence of shrinking rotations, players are required to play more minutes, and to make it through a game, they have to get active rest on the court. Usually, this happens on offense, and it’s as simple as bringing the ball up the court a second slower than normal. The next factor is that defenses play with heightened intensity which then leads to slightly longer offensive possessions. In the end, it all leads to about half a second more per possession, which shows just how razor-thin the margins are in the NBA. 

How scoring has changed in the NBA Playoffs

While the drop in pace has taken a big chunk out of per-game scoring, offensive efficiency is also down. During the regular season, the league average offensive efficiency was 115.3 points per 100 possessions but has dropped to 113.0 in the playoffs. Much like pace, this is par for the course in the playoffs, but a few interesting trends are leading to it.

Teams are turning over the ball less and getting to the free throw line more in the playoffs, which increases offensive efficiency, and offensive rebounding is down only 0.2 percent, or one extra offensive rebound every 500 missed shots. What has killed offensive efficiency is that shooting efficiency is down. The league average effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in the regular season was 54.7 percent, but it has clocked in at 52.8 percent thus far in the playoffs. 

What’s interesting is that teams’ shot diets haven’t changed too drastically, especially in key areas. Teams are taking shots close to the basket and from 3-point range at similar clips, with only a downtick in shots 3-10 feet from the basket and a slight increase in mid-range jumpers.

The real killer for offenses has been a drop in efficiency in just about every shot region. The only shot region teams’ have seen an increase in efficiency are on long 2s, and those remain the least efficient shots in the game. 

Facing better defenses will lead to worse shooting efficiency, but the teams that made the playoffs had, on average, an offensive rating of 117.6 and a defensive rating of 113.5. The key to slowing down playoff offenses has been a decrease in the number of assisted field goals, dunks, layups, and a cratering in corner 3-point efficiency. 

The drop in corner 3-point efficiency has been the biggest factor in the drop in playoff 3-point shooting. Teams are converting 34.9 percent of their above-the-break 3s in playoffs, a slight drop from the 35.7 percent in the regular season. Why corner 3-point shooting has declined is murky. It could be as simple as variance, teams could be doing a better job of defending the shot, or with more focused scouting reports, teams could be granting worse shooters the space to get off attempts. 

As for the drop in dunks and layups, that’s likely a by-product of better defensive play. However, the single biggest culprit for the drop in shooting efficiency is the decline in assisted field goals. Simply put, shots off of passes are more efficient than shots created off the dribble. While NBA scorekeepers have developed a liberal definition of an assist, by and large, you’re more likely to score if someone sets you up. 

How rebounding has changed in the NBA Playoffs

Overall, rebounding hasn’t changed much in the playoffs as offensive and defensive rebounding rate are within 0.2 percent of their regular season averages. However, while the averages are nearly identical, the gap between teams has been tremendous. 

The Knicks currently lead the playoffs in offensive rebounding rate at 30.7 percent, while the already ousted Miami Heat rank 16th at 13.3 percent. In the regular season, the gap between the first and the 30th-ranked offensive rebounding teams was 29.7 percent to 19.9 percent. There’s a similarly massive gap in defensive rebounding. The Celtics’ 85.3 percent defensive rebound rate leads the playoffs and would have crushed the league-best regular season rate of 78.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns’ 64.7 percent defensive rebound rate, the worst in the playoffs, would have made the 30th-ranked Washington Wizards’ 72.5 percent regular season defensive rebound rate look mighty impressive. 

While small samples and bad matchups are driving these massive disparities, the rebounding battle has been an awfully strong predictor of performance. Through 57 playoff games, the team that has won the rebounding battle is 44-12, with one game ending in a rebound tie. Pat Riley famously said, “No rebounds, no rings,” and he might just be onto something. 

How officiating has changed in the NBA Playoffs

An unfortunate byproduct of heightened stakes is the blasting of referees. When games are hotly contested, a single erroneous or missed call can feel like the difference. With social media, coaches, players, and television pundits amplifying referee mistakes, these playoffs have felt like a referendum on refereeing as a whole. While there are no statistics to prove if refereeing has improved or worsened in the playoffs, there has been a slight uptick in personal fouls. 

During the regular season, teams committed 18.9 personal fouls per 100 possessions, but in the playoffs, we have seen an increase to 20.7 fouls per 100 possessions. While fans probably haven’t noticed the 1.8 fouls per 100 possession increase as much as the missed calls in the fourth quarter, the fact that referees are calling more fouls suggests they’re responding to the more physical play of the playoffs accordingly. If you think the referees cost your team the game, remember, your team could always just have played well enough for one call to not matter.