NFL Rumors: Steelers embrace middling mediocrity with latest Mike Tomlin decision

The Pittsburgh Steelers' season ended in tragically predictable fashion: a loss in the Wild Card round.

Mike Tomlin has never coached a team below .500 since his arrival in Pittsburgh 17 years ago. His career record of 173-100 deserves to be celebrated. He is a Hall of Fame coach. The Steelers managed to weather storm after storm in 2023, undergoing a midseason change at offensive coordinator and overcoming the public unhappiness of several key players. The result was still 10-7, three wins above .500 and a chance to compete in the playoffs.

The Steelers' Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills was fairly close in the end, 31-17. It was a seven-point game in the fourth quarter, with Pittsburgh battling the elements and the opposing crowd. Considering the circumstances, it's hard to qualify the Steelers' season as anything other than a success.

And yet, this has been the Steelers' way over the past few years. Tomlin always finishes above .500 and he is always in the playoffs, but he hasn't been past the first round since 2016. The Steelers' persistent averageness — their unshakable good-not-great status — is partially Tomlin's fault. He exerts significant influence in the organization, as he should. But, that means Tomlin is responsible for the inexplicably protracted Matt Canada saga. He is loyal to a fault with coordinators. Now, just as the Steelers find a hint of offensive success with Mike Sullivan calling plays, Tomlin is preparing to hire his replacement.

As FanSided's John Buhler points out, the track record for defensive coaches hiring offensive coordinators is historically spotty. And, even if Tomlin nails the hire, the good times won't last long.

"There are two ways I see this happening. Let's say Tomlin's hand-picked replacement for Canada, and Sullivan to some extent, bombs. What leads you to believe The Rooneys will hold Tomlin accountable for another bad hire?...

"Okay, let's choose the optimistic route, because who doesn't love that?! Let's say whoever Tomlin hires to be his offensive coordinator achieves great success. Pickett becomes a borderline Pro Bowl player, as the Steelers are capable of winning multiple playoff games once again. Well, that offensive coordinator will be poached by a bad team to be their future NFL head coach. Pickett will still remain."

Pittsburgh essentially cannot win here. The only way to materially change the trajectory of the franchise, aside from the football gods bestowing a generational QB talent upon the Steelers to take Kenny Pickett's spot, is to fire Tomlin. The Steelers simply aren't going to do that, though.

Steelers plan to extend Mike Tomlin's contract after early postseason exit

Of course the Steelers are going to extend Mike Tomlin. And frankly, it's difficult to wholeheartedly disagree. There's something to be said for consistency. Winning the Super Bowl is hard. It's even harder when Ben Roethlisberger retires and his replacement is Kenny Pickett. The Steelers are in a transitional period as a franchise, yet Tomlin continues to keep the team's head above water.

The Steelers have immense talent on defense. The offense, for all its flaws, has a solid foundation. George Pickens and Jaylen Warren are rock-solid skill players. Mason Rudolph proved how far a big arm can take Pittsburgh. Pickett is expected back next season as QB1, but with competition. Whether through free agency or through the NFL Draft, the Steelers can at least install a decent backup plan if Pickett's third season goes south.

That said, it's starting to feel like Tomlin teams are vainly bumping up against their own ceiling. He is stubborn to a fault, as most legendary coaches in the later stages of their careers are. Tomlin has earned the control and influence he exerts over the Pittsburgh organization, but that could also be his downfall.

It's hard to justify parting with such an accomplished coach before he has tangibly "fallen off." The Patriots completely bottomed out before nixing Bill Belichick. The Seahawks are perhaps the perfect example for Pittsburgh to follow — politely kicking Pete Carroll to the curb after consecutive 9-8 seasons — but Tomlin's roots in Pittsburgh are deep. It's generally easier for ownership to take the path of least resistance over the high-risk, high-reward path of looking for a new head coach.

There's always a chance firing Tomlin would result is a severe downgrade. There is, however, also a chance firing Tomlin would finally break Pittsburgh out of its maddening funk of mediocrity. The Steelers aren't bad, but at a certain point, not being bad is not good enough.

We will see how the 2024 season unfolds. If the Steelers can't get past the first round, the calls for Tomlin's job will only increase in volume. There are valid arguments on both sides of this debate, but Tomlin runs the risk of falling short of the high standard he set in Pittsburgh.