NFL standings by turnover differential: Green Bay leads the pack

It might only be Week 3, but in the context of an NFL season, that's exactly one-sixth of the campaign. Three weeks isn't the largest sample size in the world, but we're starting to know who the contenders and pretenders are.

Perhaps something more important than team record at this time of year is how teams look when they play the games. Sure, the New England Patriots won in Week 1, but how did they look in Week 3? The Baltimore Ravens might've started 0-2, but they won an impressive Week 3 game in Dallas.

One factor that can shake up any given game is the turnover battle. Chances are, if one team turns the ball less than its opponent, it'll have a good shot at winning any given game. Sure, more goes into deciding games and the context of the turnovers is always important to keep in mind, but there is no bigger momentum shifter in any direction than a turnover.

With that in mind, here's a look at how the NFL standings currently look if they were based on turnover differential.

Note: All differentials and team records are from before the games on Monday, Sept. 23.

NFL standings ordered by turnover differential through Week 3

AFC East

If there was one thing to knock Josh Allen for, it was his inability to take care of the football. The Buffalo Bills have only played two games, but Allen has yet to throw an interception, which is pretty amazing after he threw 18 of them last season. It was assumed that Allen was going to have to work even harder to score points this season because of his depleted receiver room, but he has made it look incredibly easy on the offensive end while the Bills have scored 30+ points in both of their games. If Allen continues to take care of the ball the way he has, the Bills will be scarier than anyone would've imagined.

AFC North

Justin Fields hasn't lit the world on fire as a passer but he hasn't had to thanks to the Pittsburgh Steelers' elite defense. The recipe for the Steelers to win games is abundantly clear. Fields needs to do what he has done so far, which is make plays when he needs to and not try to do too much. By limiting risk, Fields has been efficient and limited to just one interception thus far. As long as he can take care of the ball, they'll be in games because of their defense.

AFC South

Will Levis has completed 68.1 percent of his passes and has thrown for four touchdowns in the first three weeks of the Tennessee Titans season. He has also thrown five interceptions and fumbled the ball three times. He has done some good under center, but has thrown away at least two of their games thanks to careless turnovers. Tennessee's defense has played mostly well so far, but Levis' inability to take care of the ball is why they're 0-3, and why he should be benched sooner rather than later.

AFC West

Through three weeks, Patrick Mahomes has thrown four interceptions, which is extremely uncharacteristic for the best quarterback in the league. The Kansas City Chiefs have found ways to win thanks to Mahomes playing well when he isn't turning the ball over and their defense locking the opposition down, but their quest for a three-peat could be in jeopardy if Mahomes doesn't start to take better care of the football.

NFC East

Jalen Hurts was turnover-prone last season when he shattered his career-high with 15 interceptions, and through the first three weeks of this season he's already got four to go along with three fumbles. It's tough to explain why he has turned the ball over so much after doing a great job limiting mistakes for the first couple years of his career, but as we saw in 2023 with the Philadelphia Eagles, Hurts is going to have to take care of the football if they want to go anywhere.

NFC North

Malik Willis has taken care of the football in his two starts while the Green Bay Packers defense has dominated in terms of takeaways. They have nine takeaways this season, seven of which have been interceptions. Three of those have been by Xavier McKinney, who leads the NFL in picks as of this writing. Winning the turnover battle by an average of a little over two per game will almost always lead to good results, and so far, despite Jordan Love's absence, Green Bay is 2-1 and 2-0 without their star quarterback under center.

NFC South

The New Orleans Saints might not be as explosive defensively in regard to takeaways as the Packers, but they've already turned their opponent over seven times which is second in the NFL. Five of those turnovers have been interceptions. Two of those have been caught by Tyrann Mathieu who already has half of the interceptions that he had in 17 games in 2023. The story has been their offense through the first three weeks of the season, and understandably so, but their defense, even in their Week 3 loss, has been stout. If they're going to continue to win the turnover battle like this, the Saints might just be for real.

NFC West

The NFC West is a prime example that while winning the turnover battle is crucial, it isn't an end all be all. The only team with a negative turnover differential in the division, the Seattle Seahawks, are 3-0 whi,le the others are 1-2. Facing an easy schedule in the first three weeks of the season helps a lot, but once the competition gets harder, they might have a tougher time winning games if they continue to turn the ball over like this.