NFL Week 5 picks, predictions for every game (straight-up and ATS): Vikings still perfect?

Did you miss me? Honestly, probably not given how the picks went before I took off on vacation — perhaps that was the problem, already having that time away on my mind. But I've returned and it's another week and that means it's also time to unload the NFL Week 5 picks and predictions.

This is the first time in the 2024 season that we've had byes as the Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions get the early and first Sunday off for the week. Meanwhile, only two undefeated teams remain as the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs both face tough matchups while there's also just one winless team remaining, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Will we see the stars align or un-align for those teams and more in Week 5, which kicks off on Thursday as the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Only one way to find out what we're thinking.

Before we get into the full NFL Week 5 picks this week, big shoutout to Kinnu Singh for filling in last week with a 10-6 straight-up slate and an 8-8 ATS slate while I was galavanting around national parks. What a mensch! But now, onto this week's predictions for every NFL game as bye weeks give us less football and we travel to London for the first time this year.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2024 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 26-22 | ATS Record: 24-24-0

NFL Week 5 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

Perhaps it's still a bit of vacation brain but this looks like a tricky week. There are quite a lot of small spreads on the board, which are always worrisome. In addition to that, teams like the Colts and Raiders, among others, have looked like the better teams than the Jaguars or Broncos, respectively, but are going on the road to face those divisional foes. It's a tricky situation.

Toughest NFL Week 5 predictions to make

Cowboys at Steelers (-1.5)

What was supposed to be a get-right spot for the Dallas Cowboys last week against the rival Giants didn't look a whole lot like it. If not for Daniel Jones missing some open throws, it was a game Mike McCarthy's team (and more specifically Mike Zimmer's defense) could've lost. But now they go to face a Pittsburgh Steelers team that isn't clicking on offense totally yet but do so without Micah Parsons or DeMarcus Lawrence.

I doubt the upside of the Pittsburgh offense at this juncture but don't trust the Cowboys defense. I lean the Steelers, though, because of their defense but this is by far my least confident pick in NFL Week 5.

Colts (+2.5) at Jaguars

On one hand, the Jaguars look poorly coached by Doug Pederson, the defense is an issue and there's nothing that appears to be going their way. But the flip side in this matchup has the Indianapolis Colts, a team that appears likely to enter Week 5 with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor on the sidelines, meaning Joe Flacco will get the ball.

I'll admit, I'm taking the Colts because of what Flacco did with the Browns last year and after coming in for an injured Richardson last week. However, that's never going to be a confident proposition for me, especially when the Indianapolis roster as a whole still leaves a bit to be desired and is going on the road.

Easiest NFL Week 5 picks on the board

Giants at Seahawks (-6.5)

Are the Seattle Seahawks a juggernaut? We probably got the answer to that with how Jared Goff and the Lions torched them in primetime last week. However, the Mike Macdonald defense has still been an overall upgrade that, most importantly, likely means truly terrible news for Daniel Jones and the New York Giants.

While the G-Men defense may be able to slow down the Seahawks some, Macdonald's designed pressures are destined to give Jones fits and render the New York offense a little lifeless in this game. Especially in front of the 12th Man, Seattle seems like the easy and right call here.

Jets at Vikings (-2.5)

Ultimately, this matchup was easier than it looks to me not just because of how quickly I've bought into the Vikings and their hot start but because of this matchup. The Jets defense has been a bit hit-or-miss to this point and there is no reason at this point to think that Kevin O'Connell won't find the right ways to attack. Similarly, the New York offense has simply been out of sync for much of the year. I'm not sure a Brian Flores defense is what you need to face to get out of that.

It might not be a blowout but I do feel extremely confident in the Vikings at home being able to move to 5-0 and do so by more than a field goal.