Nikola Jokic is Sombor Shuffling his way toward playoff GOAT status 

One of the strangest narratives of the past few NBA seasons has been Nikola Jokic’s playoff resume. Before the Denver Nuggets steamrolled to an NBA Finals, culminating in Jokic capturing Finals MVP, a common refrain was that Jokic had come up short when it mattered most. 

The “Can he get it done in the playoffs?” narrative likely cost Jokic a third-consecutive MVP in 2023, but it was frankly one of the most brain-dead arguments in the history of basketball discourse, and that’s saying something. Jokic’s playoff story, before winning a title, was legendary in its own right, and over the past two playoffs, he’s only continued to add epic chapter after epic chapter, with no end in sight. 

Coming off a 40-point, 13-assist, and zero-turnover masterpiece to take a 3-2 series lead against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Jokic is forging an ironclad case as his generation’s greatest playoff performer. Should he and the Nuggets prevail and repeat as champions, he’ll enter the discussion as one of the 10 greatest players ever. However, even without another championship, Jokic is beginning to threaten Michael Jordan and LeBron James for the title of playoff G.O.A.T. 

Before the NBA title, Nikola Jokic was that dude

To borrow a line from the kids, Nikola Jokic has always been “him” in the playoffs.

Before he and the Denver Nuggets embarked on their championship run in the 2023 playoffs, he owned career playoff averages of 26.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists on 60.7 percent true shooting (TS%) in 48 games. Only four other players have ever averaged at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists on 60 percent TS% over a single playoff run that lasted at least four games (Jokic has done it three times), and that list is LeBron James, Larry Bird, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Charles Barkley. Even a ring-less Jokic was already in rarified playoff air at an individual level, he just didn’t have the trophy to show for it. 

The consistent questioning of his playoff résumé during MVP debates in 2023 completely ignored, you know, his playoff resume. Pundits somehow contorted their brains with Simone Biles-esque mental gymnastics to erase his incredible playoff performances because the Nuggets had been eliminated in short series in 2021 and 2022. It should be noted that Jokic averaged 30.2 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game on 60.8 percent TS% in those two ‘black mark’ playoff runs. Figures that no player outside of Jokic has ever accomplished in a single playoff. 

Even questioning Jokic’s team success in the playoffs required a lobotomy to your playoff hippocampus. The Nuggets had made the Western Conference Finals in 2020, overcoming two 3-1 series deficits, and much of their struggles in subsequent years were due to Jamal Murray’s unfortunate ACL injury that forced him to miss both the 2021 and 2022 playoffs.

The idea that Jokic hadn’t proven anything in the playoffs before winning a title was so factually incorrect it bordered on absurd. It was the laziest of analyses and portrayed Jokic as an excellent regular season player who came up small when it mattered most.

Thanks to the Denver Nuggets title in 2023, Nikola Jokic’s playoff resume won’t be shuttered by the Gollum-esque ring-obsessed cohort of basketball fans. Titles make you a made man, just ask Dirk Nowitzki, but that doesn’t mean the true heights of Jokic’s playoff legacy won’t be met with some resistance. 

Nikola Jokic is making a run at LeBron James and Michael Jordan

The best way to be met with resistance in basketball circles is to suggest someone is coming for Michael Jordan’s throne. The next best way to be met with scorn is to say someone is coming for LeBron James. So naturally, I’m going to suggest Nikola Jokic is coming for both. 

Jokic’s playoff resume prior to his title run was exceptional, but it hadn’t yet reached a level where he could be in the same conversation as the two greatest playoff performers — Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Regardless of where you stand on the Jordan vs LeBron debate, what’s inarguable is the pair are the two greatest modern (post-ABA-NBA merger) players ever, and that extends to the playoffs. 

Jordan currently ranks first in both playoff Box Plus-Minus (BPM) and Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48), while LeBron ranks third in both. Conversely, LeBron ranks first, by comically large margins, in playoff value over a replacement player (VORP), the counting stat version of BPM, and win shares (WS), while Jordan comes in at second. The per-minute edge Jordan holds over LeBron is in large part due to the brevity of his career compared to LeBron’s, and conversely, it’s why LeBron holds a massive lead in counting stats, but what matters most is that the pair are head and shoulders above the competition, except for one person.

*Rank is post ABA-NBA merger, George Mikan is 2nd all-time in playoff Win Shares per 48 minutes

As you’ll notice, Jordan is first in BPM and WS/48 and LeBron is third, but second place belongs to Nikola Jokic. Through 78 career playoff games, Jokic owns a playoff BPM of 10.8 and WS/48 of .246. Jordan, LeBron, and Jokic are the only players in NBA history with a playoff BPM greater than 10.0 and a playoff WS/48 greater than .230 since the merger. While Jokic hasn’t had to make a playoff run in his decline phase yet, he has established such a high level over these past two playoff runs that he still has a chance to improve on those lofty numbers. 

Over the past two playoffs, Jokic has a BPM of 13.1 and WS/48 of .304. If he’s able to maintain that level of excellence throughout these playoffs and for one more run, he’ll have a chance to overtake Jordan for first in both playoff BPM and WS/48. How high he goes will depend on how long he can be one of the sport’s most elite playoff performers, but he’s already established himself as an absolute playoff killer. However, with only 78 career playoff games, Jokic will have a hard time catching Jordan, let alone LeBron, in playoff career WS and VORP. 

Still, the fact that Jokic finds himself sandwiched between Jordan and LeBron in individual playoff production is incredible in its own right. While I’ve leaned heavily into Jokic’s advanced metrics, his traditional box score stats are just as impressive. His playoff career averages of 27.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per game on 61.8 percent TS% not only stand-alone for a career, but no one has ever hit those figures across a single playoff. 

Nikola Jokic is ascending basketball’s Mount Olympus at a rapid pace. He became the ninth member of the three-time MVP club and looks well on his way to becoming the seventh member of the even more exclusive back-to-back Finals MVP club. Whether or not he can carry the Nuggets to another title shouldn’t diminish from his staggering playoff resume. Nikola Jokic is already one of the greatest playoff performers ever, and he’s making a charge for the greatest-ever distinction.