Which NL Division winner has the biggest chance of choking in the playoffs?

The No. 1 goal in the regular season for any team is to win the division. Not only does winning the division give teams the opportunity to play in the postseason, but those who are fortunate enough to claim their division title get home field at the very least in the first round of the postseason, giving them the best opportunity to advance.

While division winners are given the best chance to succeed in October, it doesn't always play out that way. In fact, both of last year's pennant winners were Wild Card teams.

Whether it should play out this way or not, it's easy to assume that at least one division winner in each league will head home early. This might seem crazy to say since they're going to be the No. 1 seed in the NL, but the one that probably has the highest chance to make an early exit feels like it's the Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Dodgers have as good of a chance as any NL division winner to choke early in postseason

Would it be surprising to see the Dodgers go on a deep run and win the World Series? Absolutely not. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman (if healthy) are any pitcher's nightmare to begin any given game. Guys like Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy, Will Smith, and Tommy Edman add quality depth to lengthen the lineup. Pitching, however, is a concern. The lack of pitching would make it not surprising to see this Dodgers team bow out early.

Jack Flaherty was one of the best pitchers traded at the deadline and while his 3.58 ERA in 10 starts with the Dodgers is far from bad, he hasn't been nearly as effective as he was with the Detroit Tigers. Plus, he's thrown more innings this season than in any since 2019. How good will he be in October with that in mind?

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has all of the talent in the world, but he hasn't thrown more than 79 pitches in an outing since returning from an injury that kept him sidelined for nearly three full months. He also has not thrown a single pitch in the MLB postseason.

Walker Buehler has a great postseason history, but 2024 Walker Buehler isn't what Dodgers fans are accustomed to seeing. He has a 5.36 ERA in 16 starts thus far.

Landon Knack has looked pretty solid in his 14 appearances (12 starts), as evidenced by his 3.76 ERA, but how good will the inexperienced right-hander be in his first postseason? He happens to have a 5.82 ERA in September, struggling in two of his four starts this month.

These are the four starters expected to take the ball this postseason. Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Gavin Stone are all out. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May haven't thrown a single MLB pitch this season. An argument can easily be made that the Dodgers have more pitching talent on the sidelines than they do healthy and ready to go in October.

We see unexpected pitchers step up all the time in October so perhaps we'll see Buehler turn it on in October. Perhaps we'll see Knack prove he should be considered part of the Dodgers' future in the rotation.

Even if the Dodgers get great pitching performances, the task in the NLDS will not be easy. They might be the No. 1 seed, but an argument can be made that the No. 2 seed would be more favorable.

With the San Diego Padres having clinched the No. 4 seed in the NL, this means that they'll not only host the Wild Card Series, but they'd face the No. 1 seeded Dodgers if they moved on. The Padres won eight of the 13 matchups they played against Los Angeles this season, and have been one of the hottest teams in the majors in the second half as evidenced by their 43-19 record since the All-Star break.

Had the Dodgers been the No. 2 seed, the earliest that they'd see them would be in the NLCS, but that's not the case.

Their pitching is a mess, and the matchup against their likely NLDS opponent does not appear to work in their favor. It's hard to bet against a team with the likes of Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman, and the Dodgers can absolutely make a deep run, but it wouldn't be shocking to see them make an early exit, especially if San Diego can advance to face them.

All of these factors combined with the obvious pressure they're going to be facing and their recent postseason history make the Dodgers the pick to make in this scenario.