Offseason outlook for the 4 teams eliminated in the second round of the NBA playoffs

The NBA playoffs started with 16 teams and we're now down to the final four. While the Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks, Boston Celtics, and Indiana Pacers will battle for a trip to the NBA Finals, 12 other teams are now left to wonder what went wrong and how to fix it.

Following the first round, I delved into the eight eliminated teams offseasons', and I'm now going to tackle the four fresh faces to succumb to the playoff crucible. As a note, Spotrac's practical cap space includes all guaranteed salaries, dead money hits, estimated exercised or declined options, cap holds, and draft pick holds. It can be viewed as the upper range of salary commitments, while the maximum cap space figure is the absolute lowest figure a team can get to this offseason without a trade.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Spotrac Practical Cap Space: -$48,238,852

Maximum Cap Space: -$19,236,363

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 4

The Cleveland Cavaliers are at a crossroads. With Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers have an impressive collection of pre-prime and prime-aged players with All-Star to All-NBA potential. That alone should make them a near-playoff lock in the Eastern Conference for years, but the chances of all four being on the roster next season look slim. 

Donovan Mitchell is undoubtedly the Cavaliers' best player but there is significant doubt he will sign an extension this offseason. Everything the Cavaliers do this summer will hinge on whether Mitchell signs an extension. These are the likely outcomes for that fork in the road. 

What the Cavaliers will do if Donovan Mitchell doesn’t extend 

If Donovan Mitchell informs the Cavaliers he won’t extend his contract, the franchise can safely assume he’ll opt out of his contract after this season. In that event, the Cavaliers really have two options. The first, and easiest and safest, is to trade Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers gave up a ton to land him, but they’ll likely recoup similar value in any trade. It would make them worse in the short term, but they’d still be in an excellent position to compete for the playoffs in the present while trying to build a contender for the future. 

The second option is for the Cavaliers to go all-in next season. What that looks like is unclear, but it’d probably see them move Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen for players who are cleaner fits next to Evan Mobley and Mitchell. This would be an incredibly risky move, but it’s a gambit that could eventually convince Mitchell to stay in Cleveland should it pay off. 

What the Cavaliers will do if Donovan Mitchell does extend 

While it looks unlikely that Mitchell will extend with the Cavaliers, if he does, it could clarify the Cavaliers’ immediate plans. Depending on the franchise’s internal evaluations, they may decide they need to split the backcourt of Mitchell and Garland, but that’s not a given. The Cavaliers have been very good the past two seasons, averaging 49.5 wins, and there would be no rush to move on from a 24-year-old who has already made an All-Star team in Garland. 

The Cavaliers could always run it back again and decide if the Garland and Mitchell and Mobley and Allen pairings are feasible. Due to their salary cap constraints and lack of tradeable first-round picks, the only avenue to augment their roster in a significant way is to trade one of their core four. Playing two point guards and two centers simultaneously isn’t ideal, but once again, they were functionally a 50-win team.  

The final bit of business for the Cavaliers this summer is fortunately unrelated to Donovan Mitchell’s looming decision. Evan Mobley is extension-eligible this offseason and negotiations should be quick business. Mobley is one of the best young frontcourt players in the league and as the third overall pick in the 2021 draft, he’ll ask for a rookie scale max extension. The Cavaliers should have no issue handing Mobley that deal, but they should try and negotiate around the edges by not offering a player option and abstaining from supermax language. 

The 2024 offseason will define the Cavaliers for years to come, but what direction it goes remains to be seen. The franchise is in a great place and there aren’t any bad options. If they want to reset their cap sheet and asset base, they can hit the trade market and recoup a ton, and if they want to run it back, they have a 50-win team with three core contributors aged 26 and younger. The Cavaliers might not be a contender, but being a very good team is nothing to fret over. 

New York Knicks

Spotrac Practical Cap Space: -$66,500,415

Maximum Cap Space: $24,770,429

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 10

The New York Knicks have once again been ousted in the second round of the playoffs, but the future is brighter than it has been in three decades for the franchise. They have an All-NBA talent guard (Jalen Brunson) surrounded by high-end role players, and the assets and contracts to add another high-level player. For the first time in ages, the Knicks are a model franchise, and because of that, the 2024 offseason could be the one that puts them over the top. 

Will the Knicks go star-hunting?

Due to the size of the New York market, the Knicks have been linked to every star player, regardless of the feasibility, over the past decade. However, this offseason is different. The Knicks are once again a franchise players want to play for, and their 10, potentially 11, first-round picks give them the assets to pull off a blockbuster. 

While the 2024 free agent crop is viewed as weak, LeBron James and Paul George could be available through a sign-and-trade, and it wouldn’t be an NBA offseason without a surprise trade demand. Chances are the Knicks will be aggressive in their pursuits of a star because it is the only thing missing from what could be a legitimate title contender. 

Donovan Mitchell was linked to the Knicks before he left Utah for Cleveland, and they could once again kick those tires. However, with Jalen Brunson’s rapid ascent, the Knicks don’t necessarily need Mitchell’s skillset, even if they need an infusion of talent. A sneaky target for the Knicks could be Lauri Markkanen of the Utah Jazz. He’d be an excellent fit next to Brunson as an elite play finisher, and his size would allow the Knicks to continue to bully teams on the offensive glass while upgrading their floor spacing. 

Right now, the Knicks are in an advantageous position where they can let the offseason come to them. This is a beloved team that was an injury crisis away from making the Eastern Conference Finals. They’ll need to extend OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein, but all of their other core contributors are locked up for next season. They’re in a position where running it back wouldn’t be a crisis, but the clock is ticking on their flexibility. 

Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle have player options for 2025-26, which means their financial and trade flexibility is fleeting. They could probably wait one more season before they take a big swing, but it would be a risk, and they’d likely have to include a beloved role player. Chances are the Knicks make a big move this season, but they have the luxury of waiting until the 2025 trade deadline to do anything. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

Spotrac Practical Cap Space: $35,255,593

Maximum Cap Space: $37,786,707

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 11

No team is better positioned for the future than the Oklahoma City Thunder. They were the second-youngest team in the league this season by average age (23.4) and produced the league’s second-best net rating (plus-7.4). They have ample cap space and are awash in first and second-round picks. When Suns’ owner/governor Mat Ishbia said 26 out of 29 teams would trade places with the Suns, one of the three that wouldn’t was the Thunder. 

When the world is your oyster, what do you do?

The Thunder have the luxury of doing nothing or everything this offseason. Their combination of draft assets, cap space, and productive young players would allow them to go after any available star. But that same combination also allows them to bide their time, improve on the margins, and wait for their young players to develop. 

With how Thunder president Sam Presti has behaved, it’s likely the front office will be selectively aggressive this offseason. If the perfect star becomes available, chances are they’ll make a serious push, but if the options are only middling, they’ll have no problem waiting for the right moment. 

While the Thunder have all the time in the world, there are two impending decisions to monitor. The first is what the Thunder will do with Josh Giddey. Giddey is extension-eligible this summer and while he is an intriguing player, he is routinely the target of teams’ gameplans. It might behoove the Thunder to move him now instead of extending him to a regrettable deal or losing him for nothing. 

The next decision is what to do with the 12th overall pick. The Thunder have so many young players and 10 first-round picks between the 2025 and 2030 drafts that they’ll eventually need to consolidate some of them. Trading the 12th pick in a weak draft could make a lot of sense, especially if they use cap space to address any immediate needs. 

The Thunder are in the best position of any team in the NBA by a mile. They have an MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, two young future All-Stars (Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren), and a collection of NBA-caliber role players still on rookie deals. However, teams are only cheap and young for so long, and while the Thunder have plenty of time by NBA standards, that really only amounts to a few years at most. 

In three years, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren will be on large extensions, and suddenly the days of financial flexibility are over. The Thunder have a talent window that could last a decade, but their financial window is only three more seasons. They don’t have to act now, but they will have to act soon. Or they could win the whole thing, which remains a distinct possibility before that day comes. 

Denver Nuggets

Spotrac Practical Cap Space: -$70,716,116

Maximum Cap Space: -$31,721,194

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 4

The Nuggets have continued the streak of reigning NBA champions not making it out of the second round for the fifth consecutive season. Their loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in seven games saw them cough up a 20-point 3rd quarter lead in game seven and highlighted the limitations of their roster as well as the intended mechanisms to prevent dynasties. 

For better or for worse, the NBA is run by small-market teams, who are guided by a perpetual insecurity of irrelevancy. With each passing CBA, the NBA has increased measures to curtail high-spending teams, making it more difficult to assemble and keep championship cores together. An unintended consequence of these biases toward maintaining small markets' competitive viability is that when a small or mid-market team is competitive, it’s incredibly difficult for them to remain on top. And that’s exactly what undid the Nuggets in the playoffs. 

Can the Nuggets reload or will they have to retool?

The Nuggets are largely locked into this roster, which is both good and bad. Being locked into a team that won a title less than 12 months ago is exactly what every team wants, but it’s still the same team that came up short 36 hours ago. The loss of Bruce Brown last offseason loomed large against the Timberwolves and exposed their roster’s lack of depth. 

The single biggest factor working for the Nuggets is they still employ Nikola Jokic, who remains at the peak of his powers. As long as he’s one of the three best players in the world, the Nuggets will own the most important and finite resource in the NBA. However, according to Tom Haberstroh, Jokic remains the only MVP since 1984 who hasn't played with an All-Star, All-NBA, or All-Defense teammate in their first nine seasons. Asking Jokic to continue to shoulder such a heavy burden to multiple championships is unprecedented in the modern game. 

The Nuggets aren’t bereft of talent, Jamal Murray is excellent, and Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are strong starters, but, outside of Murray, none are All-Star level talents, let alone All-NBA caliber. The key for the Nuggets going forward is to have excellent depth, but obtaining it will be difficult. 

Caldwell-Pope has a player option this offseason and any extension will make significant additions in free agency almost impossible. The Nuggets also don’t have much draft capital to speak of, which further hinders their ability to add players. The chemistry and continuity that brought the Nuggets their first championship may have to be broken to bring in the talent necessary to continue pushing for more. 

However, it’s likely the Nuggets run it back one more time. After all, they were as close as it comes to making the Western Conference Finals and being the favorites to make the Finals, and another year of development for Peyton Watson, Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, and Hunter Tyson could be the infusion of depth they need. 

The hardest thing isn’t building a champion. It’s staying there. And the NBA has made a concerted effort to make that as true as possible. The Nuggets weren’t the first casualty and won’t be the last. The question is if they can overcome those internal mechanisms to get back to the top, but having Nikola Jokic is a good place to start.