The offseason outlook for the 8 teams eliminated from the NBA Playoffs 

The playoffs change everything. A season can go from a success to a failure and a failure to a success all in the course of one seven-game series. Players go from All-Stars to stars and superstars to scrubs. Coaches are geniuses until they’re fools. Careers are made and lost in the playoffs, and the ramifications of an early exit can be substantial. These are the eight teams eliminated in the first round of the playoffs' offseason outlooks and their chances next season. 

Philadelphia 76ers 

Spotrac Projected Cap Space: $55,512,710

Maximum Cap Space: $72,785,838

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 7

Of all the teams eliminated in round one, the Sixers should have the most optimism to compete for a championship next season. They have an MVP-caliber player in Joel Embiid, a burgeoning superstar side-kick in Tyrese Maxey, and an excellent head coach in Nick Nurse. They own the oldest championship blueprint in NBA history and have the salary cap space and draft assets to put this roster over the top. 

Sixers offseason targets: Paul George, Brandon Ingram

The only fully guaranteed contract on the Sixers’ books heading into the offseason is Joel Embiid’s $51.4 million deal, and with their ability to wait on handing Maxey a new deal, they can go big game hunting. The best potential free agent this offseason is Paul George and he’d be an excellent fit between Embiid in the post and Maxey handling the ball on the perimeter. A big three of Embiid, Maxey, and George would be a rare combination of star power and fit.

Even if the Sixers can’t convince George to move East, they’ll have the financial power to go after LeBron James, Pascal Siakam, or Klay Thompson should they decide to extend with their current teams. While their projected $55 million in cap space gives them a great shot to land marquee-free agents, it will also allow them to be active in the trade market.

Should the Pelicans decide to move off of Brandon Ingram and are focused on salary relief, the Sixers could absorb his contract into their cap space and send New Orleans picks in lieu of players. The Sixers have seven likely first-round picks going forward, but outside of their 2024 first (16th overall), 2031 first, and a 2028 Clippers pick and swap in 2029 when their remaining three picks will be available is unknown due to protections. 

It’s rare for a real contender to have as much cap space and draft assets as the Sixers do. With Daryl Morey at the helm, expect the Sixers to make a big splash because their offseason possibilities are endless. 

Milwaukee Bucks

Spotrac Projected Cap Space: -$66,407,559

Maximum Cap Space: -$49,366,296

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 4

The Milwaukee Bucks went all-in to chase a title in 2023-24 and didn’t just come up empty-handed, they lost their hand entirely. Following a first-round exit to the Miami Heat in the 2023 playoffs, the Bucks fired long-time head coach Mike Budenholzer, replacing him with first-time head coach Adrain Griffin, and then traded Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard. The expectations were to compete for a title, but right from the start things seemed off. 

The Bucks got off to an uneven start, with an elite offense but porous defense, and fired Adrian Griffin despite a 31-13 start. Doc Rivers was brought in to stabilize the situation, but the Bucks only went 17-19 under his watch before bowing out to the Pacers in six games in the first round. It is completely fair to cite injuries for the Bucks’ disappointing playoff run. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the series with a calf injury and Damian Lillard missed time due to an Achilles injury. However, at no point did the Bucks have a sustained run where they looked like genuine threats to win the title. 

The Bucks enter this offseason in a very similar place as last season, but they’re essentially locked into the roster they have, barring a complete teardown. Because the Bucks have no salary cap wiggle room to go after significant free agents, they’ll have to add players on the margins or trade established veterans to try and round out their roster. 

Bucks draft targets: Kevin McCullar, Jaylon Tyson

The one lifeline the Bucks have to upgrade is they own the 23rd and 33rd overall picks in the 2024 draft. While the top of the 2024 draft isn’t loaded with impact talent, that doesn’t mean there aren’t rotation quality players or diamonds in the rough to be found. 

Kevin McCullar, ranked 23nd on FanSided’s big board, is the perfect type of wing prospect for the Bucks to target. As a fifth-year senior he has the experience to come in and contribute from day one, and he’s a tough versatile defender who has improved as a shooter each season. With the 33rd pick, the Bucks could target Jaylon Tyson, a 6-foot-7 shooting guard who popped as a junior after transferring to the University of California. Tyson has the size and skill to play in the backcourt or on the wing and could be a great fit next to Damian Lillard in jumbo-sized arrangements. He has a short statistical track record, but ball handlers of his size are rare. 

The Bucks are probably going to have to run it back with this core, but that’s not a horrible thing. With Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton on the court, the Bucks had a net rating of plus-16.8. If they can nail the draft and figure out how to add one or two low-cost veterans that make sense, the Bucks could have the type of season we all thought they would have in 2023-24. 

Miami Heat

Spotrac Projected Cap Space: -$66,442,740

Maximum Cap Space: -$32,174,023

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 5

So much for Heat Culture. The Miami Heat, after securing a playoff spot through the play-in, weren’t able to make a surprise run. While fans and media members have given the Heat the benefit of the doubt in the playoffs, the truth is, this franchise has been up and down in the Jimmy Butler era. Since Butler joined the Heat in 2019-20, they’ve alternated between making the Eastern Conference Finals, twice reaching the Finals, and being eliminated in the first round. 

Their recent playoff success puts them in an odd position. The Heat feel like they’re close to contention, but every regular season they play like a team at least a step below that distinction. This is a pivotal offseason for the franchise and the route they decide to take will be telling over their internal evaluation of the roster. 

The Heat, barring massive trades, aren’t going to be players in free agency. They’re tens of millions of dollars above the salary cap, but fortunately, most of their roster is under contract for next season. The only key rotation pieces they could see hit free agency are Kevin Love and Caleb Martin, who have player options, and Haywood Highsmith.

Will the Heat extend their stars?

The most important decision the Heat have to make this summer is if they are willing to extend Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Butler’s extension talks are far more complicated. He is coming off a down season, will turn 35 in September, and his current deal runs through 2024-25 before a player option in 2025-26 for $52.4 million. Realistically, the Heat shouldn’t give Butler a pay raise. He’s almost certainly in decline, and committing over $60 million to a player in their late 30s is a recipe for disaster. 

Adebayo’s extension talks should be more straightforward, but shouldn’t be viewed as a guarantee. For as great a defensive big as Adebayo is, his offensive game is best suited as a third or fourth option. As the playoffs exposed, if Adebayo is a critical part of your offense, you’re probably not a very good offense. The other concern centers on longevity. Adebayo turns 27 this summer, and any long-term extension will take him into his early 30s. While he’s a great defender today, he’s undersized for a center (6-foot-9), and a drop in athleticism could see him fall off in a hurry. 

Chances are the Heat will extend Adebayo this summer and kick the can down the road with Butler. If that causes too much internal strife, then it shouldn’t be hard to find a trade partner for Butler. He is still an excellent player, but he probably isn’t good enough to drag this Heat team to the Conference Finals anymore. 

The Heat are always linked to big-name trade targets, but it’s unlikely they have the ammunition to land a player who could really vault them into the title conversation. With only five first-round picks, six when their 2031 becomes available to trade, they just don’t have the assets to outbid other interested suitors. The best course of action for the Heat is to use the 15th pick in the 2024 draft, wait and see what this team has, and then decide to go all in or hit the reset button. However, if they do extend Butler, then 2024-25 has to be viewed as a championship or bust season. 

Orlando Magic

Spotrac Projected Cap Space: $19,070,584

Maximum Cap Space: $58,187,563

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 8

The Magic are sitting in an enviable position, but that doesn’t mean they should be content. As one of the youngest teams in the league and coming off a 47-win season, it’d be easy for the Magic to sit back and hope that internal development spurs them onto bigger and better things. But resting on their laurels would be a waste when they have ample cap space and eight first-round picks through 2030. 

The biggest internal decision for the Magic this summer is what to do in extension talks with Franz Wagner. Wagner has had an excellent start to his career, but his 3-point shot cratered unexpectedly this season. It has been viewed as a given that he’ll land a rookie-scale max extension, but the Magic should see if they can’t save a few million here or there. Wagner is definitely a player worth keeping, but giving a wing 25 percent of the salary cap coming off a 28.1 percent 3-point shooting campaign is a little scary. 

Big additions or minor tweaks?

The Magic have the resources to make a massive swing or flesh out the edges of their roster and address significant weaknesses. The single biggest issue the Magic have is their 3-point shooting. They were a low-volume low-efficiency 3-point shooting team and it completely bogged down their offense. Unsurprisingly, they’ve been linked to Klay Thompson and Paul George in free agency, but Buddy Hield, Tyus Jones, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Nicolas Batum would all help their cause. 

While the Magic can be players in free agency, their best avenue to take a significant step forward is through the trade market. If Donovan Mitchell doesn’t extend in Cleveland and becomes available, he’d be a perfect fit next to Orlando’s young core. Mitchell is an explosive scorer and should help both Wagner and Banchero improve their efficiency while also being an interesting backcourt mate with Jalen Suggs. 

Regardless of what direction the Magic take, they’re set up excellently for the future. They’re a young team with tons of talent and draft assets and aren’t saddled with any bad contracts. However, teams are only young and cheap for so long. This offseason is the Magic’s best opportunity to add significant salary and talent without having to make too many tough decisions. Patience is a virtue, but it’s about knowing when to strike, not waiting for the sake of it. 

Los Angeles Lakers

Spotrac Projected Cap Space: -$82,925,056

Maximum Cap Space: $30,685,215

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 5

Because it’s the Los Angeles Lakers, every season without a championship feels like a failure, but by and large, the 2023-24 season was a success. LeBron James and Anthony Davis stayed healthy all season, they were able to weather a slew of injuries to rotation pieces, and it culminated in 47 wins. If they had been in the Eastern Conference, they would have had a shot at the fifth seed, but in the West, they had to start in the play-in and then face the defending champion Denver Nuggets in the first round. A five-game dismantling at the hands of the Nuggets in round one cost Darvin Ham his job, but this team simply didn’t have enough talent to make a deep run in a loaded Western Conference. 

The Lakers are entering a pivotal offseason for one reason — LeBron James age. It cannot be understated just how absurdly good James was in his age-39 season. He wasn’t as good as ever because he’s not the best player in the world by a significant margin anymore, but he finished the season seventh in value over a replacement player. As long as LeBron can still play around this level, the Lakers will have a chance to become a contender. However, banking on him remaining a top 15 player would be unwise. Chances are he’ll still be excellent next season, but with each passing year, he’ll need more and more support. 

James has a $51.4 million player option for next season, and the Lakers simply cannot afford to lose him if they want to compete for anything. The best-case scenario for them is if he opts in and extends off that number for another year or two. While retaining James will vaporize their cap space, the whole point of cap space is to use it on elite players, and James is still that. Assuming James decides to stay in Los Angeles, the Lakers have their work cut out for them to build a real champion. 

The first order of business is to find a coach that James and Anthony Davis believe in. Darvin Ham was unfairly blamed for the Lakers’ struggles, but he certainly wasn’t an upper-tier coach. Once the Lakers sort out the sideline, they can start to address their actual issues. 

Can the Lakers make one final swing?

The Lakers have five first-round picks and will have access to their 2031 first in the coming months, putting them behind most teams in terms of raw draft assets. However, Austin Reaves is on one of the best contracts in the league, and Jarred Vanderbilt and Rui Hachimura are solid players on reasonable deals. A package built around their three tradable firsts and three best role players could make them an enticing trade partner for a team looking to stay competitive even after trading a star. 

Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and any other star who becomes theoretically available should be linked to the Lakers for equally strong SEO and basketball reasons. Mitchell is the best fit next to LeBron and Davis of the three, and the Lakers package should be interesting to a Cavaliers franchise that still has an exciting young core to build around. The Atlanta backcourt duo of Young and Murray would still offer the Lakers more juice, but Young is a divisive player, and Murray isn’t quite a star. 

In the grand scheme of things, the Lakers are in a solid position. They have two top-15 players, solid role players on fair-value contracts, and enough picks to get their foot in the door. Their problem is they’re running out of time to go from solid to exceptional. LeBron James rightfully doesn’t want to be a first-round exit in his latter years, but the Lakers are going to have to give up a lot to make that a reality. 

Phoenix Suns

Spotrac Projected Cap Space: -$100,324,490

Maximum Cap Space: -$61,834,671

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 4

The Phoenix Suns kicked off this whole exercise because of Mat Ishbia’s ludicrous press conference. Ishbia, the Suns’ governor, spent 20 minutes telling reporters that the Suns are in a great place and went as far as to say, “The other 29 GMs, 26 of them would trade their whole team for our whole team, our draft picks, and everything as is.” The whole press conference is a hoot and is definitely worth a watch if you like desperate businessman performance art. 

Realistically, and Ishbia alludes to this in his own way, the Suns are stuck with this roster barring a complete teardown. However, that’s not necessarily as bad as one might think. This is still a team that won 49 games and only got 862 minutes with their three best players, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, on the court together. There is also a real chance that the Suns are a far better team than their regular season metrics suggest. 

The Suns’ well-documented fourth-quarter struggles obscured what was an impressive team. Their minus-11.6 net rating in the fourth quarter was not only the worst in the league; it was more than double the next worst team’s minus-5.5. That level of ineptitude is basically impossible to repeat for a team that had a net rating of plus-7.5 through the first three quarters, which is in-line with the Oklahoma City Thunder’s full-season net rating. Some of the lowest-hanging fruit is there for the Suns to devour. If they have slightly better health and are not historically, ludicrously, comically bad in the fourth quarter, they should be at least a 55-win team. 

Can the Suns round out this roster?

The Suns’ biggest issue this season was an utter lack of depth, but when you’re set to pay three players more than $150 million that’s the bed you’ve made. However, there are some relatively easy holes for this team to fill. The first is the center position. Jusuf Nurkic was incredibly important to the Suns this season, but he was also a below-league-average starting center. Finding a center that can rim-run and protect the rim at little to no cost is one of the easier tasks for a front office. If they can convince Goga Bitadze to take the minimum, he’d be a massive upgrade to their center rotation. 

The next order of business is to find depth literally anywhere. A big reason the Suns collapsed in fourth quarters was they ran out of steam. Their pace and rebounding, two energy-dependent stats, would crater, and allowing Durant to play 32 minutes instead of 35 a night would be huge. Their best avenue to adding bodies on the wing is to use the 22nd pick on an older rookie who can contribute right away. After that, they’ll have to hit the minimum market again, but the Suns still have the advantage of being able to give a role player a massive platform to get a larger deal. 

The Suns aren’t in the best place imaginable, but their sweep at the hands of the Timberwolves overstated their woes. This is still a team with tremendous top-end talent and a few easy areas to improve. Mat Ishbia’s press conference was hilarious, but there was some truth in his analysis. The Suns will be bright in 2024-25, and they could win the whole thing if they nail their offseason moves. 

New Orleans Pelicans

Spotrac Projected Cap Space: -$56,504,545

Maximum Cap Space: $3,395,786

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 10

The New Orleans Pelicans are set up incredibly well for the future. They have a young star locked up on a long-term deal, incredible depth, and an incredible cachet of draft assets. The only question this franchise is facing is whether ownership will ever allow the front office to spend like a true contender.   

Zion Williamson’s ill-timed injury in the play-in erased what had been a fantastic season. Williamson was the healthiest he had ever been and began to take on a more prominent ball-handling role in the offense. With Trey Murphy III set to land a long-term extension, the Pelicans will lock in their two most exciting young players, and that doesn’t include Bradon Ingram and C.J. McCollum. 

All-in or future-focused?

The Pelicans have one difficult decision to make this offseason, and it’s whether to extend Brandon Ingram or trade him. Ingram is a good player, but he’s a borderline All-Star set to get a raise into the $40 to $50 million annual salary range. The Pelicans have never paid the luxury tax, and having McCollum, Ingram, Williamson, and likely Murphy all on big-money deals would be a seismic change in behavior for the organization. With how young Williamson and Murphy are, the Pelicans can be patient and a trade of Ingram is likely. 

However, if the Pelicans decide to retain both Ingram and Murphy beyond 2024-25, then it’d behoove them to go all in next season before their new deals kick in and the team becomes incredibly expensive. Chances are that won’t happen, but with how many draft picks the Pelicans have they can take a big swing or tweak around the margins. 

There isn’t a whole lot to discuss regarding the Pelicans. They’re on very solid footing as an organization and would be justified in going a multitude of ways as a franchise. Historically, they’ve gone the route of financial prudence and that should continue this season. Eventually, they’ll have to open up the purse strings to compete for a title, but that’s probably a discussion for next year. 

Los Angeles Clippers

Spotrac Projected Cap Space: -$102,751,665

Maximum Cap Space: $32,808,983

Total Likely Future 1st Round Picks: 4

The Los Angeles Clippers have to feel snake-bitten at this point. After rattling off a 25-5 stretch from Dec. 2 to Feb. 5, they had the look of a true championship contender, but a 17-16 close to the season put a damper on those hopes, and Kawhi Leonard’s knee issues bludgeoned the nail into the coffin. If the Clippers’ season were a sandwich, it’d be two moldy pieces of bread surrounding the world’s most expensive cut of prosciutto. 

With a move into a new arena on the horizon, the Clippers have the feel of a declining asset. They still have Kawhi Leonard and Steve Ballmer’s bottomless pit of money to work with, but their chances of being a title contender are waning. This offseason will prove to be pivotal for Los Angeles’ second favorite NBA franchise. 

Keeping the old guard around

The most pressing concern for the Clippers is Paul George’s impending free agency. George isn’t the player he was at his peak, but he’s still an excellent two-way player, and losing him would all but kill the Clippers’ slim chances of competing for a title. With how much leverage George has over the Clippers, it’s probably going to take the full max to keep him in town. 

Once the Paul George situation settles, the Clippers will have to iron out a deal for James Harden. Harden, much like George, isn’t the player he once was, but he was still a crucial part of their success. While he likely won’t have max offers waiting for him in free agency, he also won’t come cheap. The Clippers are facing a bottomless pit of despair if they lose both George and Harden, and they’ll likely have to overpay both to avoid catastrophe. 

The Clippers are in a tough position. They’re a good but not great team on the periphery of the title conversation that is going to be incredibly old and expensive. With no draft assets and salary cap room to speak of, they also have little avenue to make upgrades. However, with how deep Steve Ballmer’s pockets are, the Clippers should spend what it takes to keep this team competitive and slowly allow their stockpile of assets to replenish. There’s still a chance Kawhi Leonard is healthy in the playoffs and they pull off a miraculous run.

The cost of going all-in is that if you miss out on a title, you’re stuck in semi-competitive purgatory for years. The Clippers rolling the dice on James Harden was the right choice, but they’re stuck on the outside of contention with almost no upward mobility. Being just a good team isn’t a horrible place to be, but it’s not the place the Clippers strived to arrive at. There can only be one champion, and the Clippers know that better than anyone else.