Once-inevitable Steelers split doesn’t sound as definite now

The Pittsburgh Steelers offseason has been nothing if not eventful. From the overhaul at quarterback to the ongoing trade rumors involving Brandon Aiyuk, there's plenty to keep Pittsburgh fans engaged and interested ahead of the regular season.

It appears, from a distance, that the Steelers are approaching a crossroads. The Matt Canada experience is finally over, but how serious can we take an offense helmed by Arthur Smith after that Falcons tenure? Moreover, how much better can the Steelers' offense get with their current personnel? The WR room is a mess, but even in the event of an Aiyuk trade, the Steelers won't have high-level quarterback play to elevate the collective.

Pittsburgh's offense has been rooted in the run game for a while. That led to complications last season when RB1 Najee Harris was rather thoroughly outperformed by RB2 Jaylen Warren. Despite the hard evidence to support Warren (5.3 yards per carry) over Harris (4.1 yards per carry), the latter remains at the top of the depth chart. He is expected to receive the bulk of Pittsburgh's early-down work.

To be clear, Harris is still a talented RB. A first-round pick back in 2021, when it was already becoming rarer to see RBs drafted so high, Harris' physicality at 6-foot-1, 242 pounds stood out from the very beginning. He can take a beating between the hashmarks, scrapping and clawing for important yards and frequenting the end zone (1,205 yards from scrimmage, eight touchdowns last season).

Despite the narrative spinning in Pittsburgh, Harris' third NFL season was his best in terms of efficiency. He didn't lead the league in touches like he did as a rookie — largely due to Warren's presence and the Steelers' conscious preservation efforts — but Harris has never been more productive on a per-touch basis.

It has long felt like a breakup was inevitable, with Warren cemented as Harris successor, but now the latter's future with the Steelers has an unexpected lifeline.

Steelers won't rule out new contract for Najee Harris after season

The Steelers declined the team option for next season on Harris' rookie contract, but that won't preclude them from hammering out terms on a new deal after the season, according to GM Omar Khan. From ESPN's Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler (subscription required):

"GM Omar Khan has said the door isn't closed on Harris, and it's certainly possible Harris could still get a new deal after the season. But the Steelers are installing a new offense and have told Harris and others they want to see how it goes this season before making long-term decisions. Pickens will be extension-eligible next offseason for the first time, so this is a big year for him as well."

Does this meaningfully shift the odds on Harris sticking around after the season? It's unclear. In the end, as Khan appears to hint, it probably comes down to Harris' performance this season. If he breaks out in Smith's scheme, empowered by another run-happy OC, the Steelers could move to extend Harris' tenure. If he continues to lose touches to Warren, though, it's hard to imagine Pittsburgh spending the money necessary to keep their ironman RB around.

The free agent market for RBs is in the dump. A few noteworthy contracts were dished out this summer — most notably Saquon Barkley netting almost $40 million from Philadelphia — but serious long-term money is reserved for the best of the best at RB. Harris does not quite meet that threshold. If his price balloons at all, the Steelers probably won't find the motivation to re-sign him. Not with an obvious successor in place. If Harris is squeezed by the marketplace and available for pennies on the dollar, however, that could lead him back to Pittsburgh's doorstep.

Those are the primary factors at play, and they are inextricably intertwined. How well Harris performs this season and how competitive the market is next spring. Harris certainly has a chance to play his way into a new contract in Arthur Smith's offense, but Pittsburgh fans must wait until 2025 for clarity.