Paul Finebaum predicts Lincoln Riley will ditch USC after this season

Paul Finebaum thinks the Lincoln Riley-USC marriage won't make it to 2025, which is an absurd opinion, but you know what they say about opinions...Everybody has one.

The longtime SEC Network analyst was on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning and made his bold claim about Riley's future.

"It's not a matter of wishing him bad luck out there," Finebaum said, H/T Athlon. "That's already happening. If you look at the reality, the number of players that are bailing on Lincoln Riley in Southern California... It's startling.

"I've always thought he was a really good coach, especially on the offensive side. But I don't think anyone today views him in that same realm. Quite frankly, I think he'll be out at Southern Cal at the end of the season."

Paul Finebaum writing off Lincoln Riley at USC is premature in the extreme

College football has always been a 'what have you done for me lately?' industry. So it shouldn't surprise anyone that a year after successfully flipping a 4-8 roster into an 11-3 squad with a Heisman Trophy winner, Riley is being talked about like he's on the hot seat. Frankly, he brought that on himself by retaining defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and going 8-5 in 2023 because of it.

Still, it's ridiculous to look at a coach that signed a 10-year contract rumored to be worth upwards of $100 million and say he will be gone after the third year. USC isn't going to run Riley out of town. His buyout is surely astronomical (Trojan boosters aren't of the Texas A&M variety, they're not footing that bill if things go bad). And Riley isn't likely to pack up and leave, his exit clause is almost certainly exorbitant as well. That's just the logistical financial angle.

Finebaum thinks the "train has pulled out of the station" for Riley finding success at USC and he's heading for "one of the most historic crash and burns in the history of modern college football."

It's wild to act like Riley is washed as a coach. His offense in 2023 ranked third nationally in scoring. Without Caleb Williams at the helm, the Trojans put up 42 points with Miller Moss slinging six touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl against Louisville's top 20 defense.

Riley's loyalty to Alex Grinch was his undoing. He ultimately parted ways with the defensive coordinator and hired D'Anton Lynn to turn around the Trojans much like he did the rival Bruins. Remember, UCLA's defense ranked 79th in ESPN FPI in 2022. Lynn improved them to sixth in 2023. USC's 2023 defense ranked 90th. Even half of the improvement Lynn managed with the Bruins would ensure the Trojans don't come anywhere near rock bottom. A comparative improvement could easily put them in the College Football Playoff.

I'm not saying Riley will definitely reach the mountain top with USC. He has a lot to prove and his recruiting efforts in Southern California aren't good enough. Still, it's exceedingly early to write off Riley at USC after two seasons: one good (USC's first 11-win season since 2017) and one disappointing (8-5, matching Clay Helton's best record in the four years before Riley arrived).