Penguins clinching scenarios: Can Pittsburgh defy the odds?

After a big offseason in which the Pittsburgh Penguins acquired players like Erik Karlsson, Ryan Graves, and Reilly Smith, they looked like a playoff lock for the 2024 campaign. Unfortunately, things couldn't have gone worse for them to begin the season.

It got so bad to the point where the Penguins traded Jake Guentzel, one of their best forwards, to the Hurricanes as they appeared to be clear trade deadline sellers. That trade signaled that they were packing it in and playing for 2025, but to their shock, the Penguins are very much alive as the regular season nears its conclusion.

In fact, as we enter Game 82, the Penguins sit just one point out of a playoff spot. It's not likely, but they are very much alive. Here's what has to happen for them to squeak into the playoffs.

How the Penguins can defy the odds and make the playoffs

It's crazy that a team with 88 points through 81 games has a chance to make the playoffs, but here we are. In fact, Pittsburgh hasn't even been all that great since the Guentzel trade, going 10-6-4 in that span. Thanks in large part to every team they're competing with struggling, the Pens have a shot.

Four teams are in the hunt for that final playoff spot, but the Penguins are really chasing the Washington Capitals and Detroit Red Wings who have 89 points on the season, one more than the Penguins.

There are a couple of potential clinching scenarios for the Penguins.

First, if they win their game on Wednesday against the Islanders while the Capitals and Red Wings earn one point or fewer, they're in. The reason for that is because the tiebreaker is regulation wins. The Penguins lead every team in this race in that category, which could be huge.

If the Penguins lose in overtime or in a shootout, they'll need both the Capitals and Red Wings to lose in regulation. If that happens, they'd all have 89 points and Pittsburgh would, once again, have the tiebreaker thanks to their regulation wins.

If Pittsburgh loses in regulation to the Islanders, their season is over.

Playing a game on the road against a playoff team with your hopes of making it to the postseason on the line might not sound ideal, but the Islanders just clinched their spot with a win on Monday. With that in mind, and the Islanders having nothing to play for, perhaps the Penguins will have better luck playing against a team with little to no motivation.

The odds are not in Pittsburgh's favor. If the Capitals win their game against the Flyers or the Red Wings defeat the Canadians, their season is over. They need help to get in. However, their odds are a whole lot better now than they were just one month ago.