Grading a disastrous Pete Alonso trade where Mets forfeit all their leverage

The New York Mets have won five in a row and nine of their last 11 games to improve to 33-37 on the season which, believe it or not, has them 1.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the NL. They still face an uphill battle, but their odds of making the postseason have increased dramatically over the last week or two. To top it all off, Grimace has become a folk hero of sorts.

Despite all of the positive momentum, The Athletic's Jim Bowden is still focused on trading away New York's best power hitter, Pete Alonso.

Look. The reasoning makes sense. Alonso is set to hit free agency at the end of the year, and with him being a Scott Boras client, the odds of an extension are just about zero. The Mets can ensure they get a nice return for Alonso by trading him at this year's deadline, rather than risk letting him walk for nothing more than a compensatory pick.

Sure, hypothetically the Mets can trade him and then sign him over the offseason like the New York Yankees did with Aroldis Chapman years ago, but the reason why that specific Chapman move is always cited is because trading a player only to bring him back over the offseason is extremely rare. The Mets would essentially lose all of their leverage by trading Alonso, and would have to rely even more on Steve Cohen's wallet to even stand a chance in his negotiations.

Bowden sends Alonso to a team that could really use him, the Minnesota Twins, in a blockbuster trade. Let's see if Bowden's package ($) is good enough for the Mets to forfeit their leverage.

Grading a Mets-Twins trade sending Pete Alonso to Minnesota

The Twins have Carlos Santana as their primary first baseman. While he hasn't been bad by any stretch, he's better suited to be a platoon player at this stage of his career with his numbers against left-handed pitchers far exceeding his production against righties.

The Twins would upgrade their first base position dramatically by acquiring Alonso, one of the best power bats in the sport, to the middle of their lineup. Here's Bowden's idea of a deal that'd get it done.

There's a lot to think about from the Mets perspective. Not only would they lose any leverage they had in Alonso talks by trading him, but they'd also be essentially waving the white flag on the 2024 season, which feels extremely unlikely with them being 1.5 games out. Things can change, but if the Mets are in the thick of it, they're not trading their big slugger.

Assuming the Mets are out of it, this wouldn't be a bad return. The deal is headlined as Bowden says by David Festa, Minnesota's No. 5 prospect and the No. 100 prospect overall according to MLB Pipeline. Festa is a right-handed starting pitcher who in 13 starts this season for AAA St. Paul has pitched to a 3.50 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 54 innings of work. He could be an important piece for the Mets rotation for years to come.

In addition to Festa, the Mets would acquire Luke Keaschall, a player who can play both second base and center field. Keaschall, Minnesota's second-round pick from 2023, has already made it up to AA and has an impressive .973 OPS with 17 stolen bases this season. He'd be a strong second piece for the Mets to acquire.

Bowden also throws former exciting prospect Alex Kirilloff into the deal. Kirilloff struggled mightily this season before getting sent down to AAA, but he was solid in 2023. He could be a decent change-of-scenery guy.

Overall, this would be a strong Alonso return. Right now, it makes little sense for New York to trade him considering they're right in the thick of the postseason race, but if they fall out of it, this package would have to make David Stearns think awfully hard about letting go of New York's leverage when it comes to Alonso's free agency. This might be worth it.

For Minnesota, it's hard to envision them giving up a promising arm like Festa for a rental, even one of Alonso's caliber. An Alonso deal would make them a lot better, but it wouldn't make them favorites to win the AL by any stretch over teams like the Yankees and Orioles, and there's little chance they'd be willing to pay him in free agency.

Bowden is going to get dinged for proposing this at a time where the Mets would almost certainly never trade him, but the deal from a Mets perspective is not bad. Minnesota is probably giving too much for a player destined to leave after the season and doesn't put them over the top this season, at least on paper.

Mets trade grade: B
Twins trade grade: C