PGA Championship picks 2024: Expert picks, best bets for Valhalla

Are there any storylines coming into the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY? You know, other than Rory McIlroy entering off of two straight wins in the midst of a 10-year major championship drought to the place where he won his last major? Other than Scottie Scheffler looking to complete the grand slam after a historic start to 2024 but also after having his first child? Other than Brooks Koepka aiming to go back-to-back at the PGA Championship? Other than Jordan Spieth still chasing the career grand slam?

Okay, so yeah, there are some storylines abound. Who knew?

This is going to be a phenomenal event where the drama is palpable from the opening tee shot this week at Valhalla. And hey, we get Michael Block back in our lives. What a world. But it's a world I'm ecstatic to be in this week as it should provide a great test, which is what we've seen from the PGA Championship in recent years. It's a stern, fair test that will ask something about every part of your game. Valhalla is no different, even with a premium on ball striking.

So where will that lead us with our PGA Championship picks? Let's find out with a full, full card that we have full of our expert picks and best bets for Valhalla.

Note: All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2024 through Wells Fargo: 13-101-0, -28.53 Units (1-39 on outrights and longshots | -0.6 units at Wells Fargo | One and Done Total for 2024: $6,365,542 (Hideki n/a at Wells Fargo (WD))

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PGA Championship picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done

Top 5 pick for the PGA Championship: Ludvig Åberg (+333)

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall that houses slain warriors being honored in the afterlife. So it'd feel wrong if the Swedish wunderkind Ludvig Åberg didn't insert his name into the mix. Lucky for him, this place could be a perfect fit for success after a wildly informative and successful major debut at The Masters. As a test of the entire tee-to-green game, Åberg is perfect, gaining 5.5 strokes or more ball striking in his last four tournaments (Masters included) and 8.6 or more in three of them. The WD from the Wells Fargo does worry me slightly, but I'm hoping it's precautionary to come up big at the PGA Championship.

Top 10 pick for the PGA Championship: Bryson DeChambeau (+250)

Maybe this is buying into fool's gold, but I loved what I saw from Bryson DeChambeau at The Masters as he finished T6, by far his best finish at Augusta. He finished T4 at the PGA Championship last year at Oak Hill, which is not dissimilar to Valhalla. More importantly, his length off of the tee should prove to be advantageous. I'm not saying he's going to win but he's actually more intriguing to me this week than Brooks Koepka based on how he can attack this golf course and how his game sets up for it.

Top 20 pick for the PGA Championship: Denny McCarthy (+350)

This is a play that's all about putting with a little bit about the rest of his game. He's one of the best putters in the world at any moment but bentgrass, which we'll have this week, might actually be his best surface to play on. His last five showings at tournaments with bentgrass greens have gone T10, T6, T7, T20, and a runner-up... and one of those finishes was a US Open, the runner-up was at the Memorial, and T10 was at the BMW. He's done it against the best. His ball striking does worry me right now but he has popped on occasion. After a quiet T6 at the Wells Fargo last week, though, I think McCarthy can get us a Top 20.

One and Done pick for the PGA Championship: Rory McIlroy

We're going with Rory at Valhalla and, professional teaser here, wait just a bit longer to get the full breakdown of why.

PGA Championship picks: More best bets for Valhalla

Min Woo Lee to finish Top 20 at the PGA Championship (+250)

I'm looking at Min Woo Lee this week and thinking about it like a Bryson-lite type of play, which is why I'm only looking Top 20 for the chef. He's one of the best drivers in the game in terms of length and that could be a huge advantage this week. While his approach play has seen him lose strokes pretty consistently, his putter has been up and down. However, he's played this major and these summer majors well of late (T18 at PGA, T5 at US Open last year) and Valhalla should make sense as a fit for him.

Byeong Hun An to finish as Top South Korean at the PGA Championship (+280, FanDuel)

Because of the Rory-Xander battle at the top of the leaderboard, you may have missed Beyong Hun An beating the rest of the field besides those two by three strokes at Quail Hollow. An has been a stud this year and now comes into the PGA Championship off of back-to-back Top 5 finishes and with a Top 20 at The Masters as well, which is three Top 20s in his last four starts. He's gained more than 5.0 strokes ball striking in each of those three finishes but has also gained more than 3.0 strokes putting in his last two starts. He could be live and with a lack of faith in Sungjae Im's form this year along with the volatile Si Woo Kim, I think An is value to finish as the Top South Korean.

Scottie Scheffler to finish Top 10 + Viktor Hovland to finish Top 20 at PGA Championship (+320, FanDuel)

I'm not going to belabor anything with Scottie Scheffler. He's the best player in the world this year by a lot and I wanted to find value in him finishing Top 10. And to do that, we're going to try and be early on Viktor Hovland. He's been up and down but gained 3.97 strokes on approach in the final round at Quail Hollow. That's his DNA and I think he could come in and make some noise at the PGA Championship where he contended a year ago. But at minimum, I think there's a bit of value in the Top 20, especially when parlayed with Scottie.

PGA Championship picks: Outright winners for Valhalla in 2024

Rory McIlroy to win the PGA Championship, 1 Unit (+800)

Probably setting myself up for pain but I can't get past Rory McIlroy. The driver is a certified weapon and even more so than normal right now. But the length of Valhalla should save him from some of his weaknesses, namely with his wedges on approach. Moreover, the putter has been looking good. And oh yeah, we know that he's capable of winning at Valhalla because he's done it. He gained 15.68 strokes tee-to-green last week at Quail Hollow, the second-best tournament of his entire career tee-to-green. He's finding his complete game and it's time to end the decade-long drought.

Ludvig Åberg to win the PGA Championship, 0.7 Units (+1800)

Doubling up with Ludvig here, I think he's live to actually win. He proved he has the goods in his Masters debut by trying to track down Scheffler and has looked legitimately like one the best players in the world since he turned pro basically. His driving should be lethal at Valhalla and he's found his approach play. The odds are a little short but he's earned that and I truly believe the win equity is quite high.

Tyrrell Hatton to win the PGA Championship, 0.3 Units (+5500, FanDuel)

Going a bit off the board here, we have to look at Tyrrell Hatton. He was T9 at The Masters and has two Top 5s in his last three starts on LIV Golf as well (the other was a T14). The ball striking numbers are absolutely there but his short game has also been distinctly in the positive from a strokes gained perspective as well. His accuracy plus length off of the tee and a course that will be a complete test seems to fit the way he's playing, so I'll fire a small shot for him to come up with the win at Valhalla.