Phillies at crossroads with Craig Kimbrel after back-to-back losses

The Philadelphia Phillies are on the brink of disaster. After jumping out rather emphatically to a 2-0 series lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS, the Phillies are back on even ground, 2-2, heading into a pivotal Game 5 in enemy territory.

All the momentum from their titanic victory over the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS? Out the window. The good vibes following that 10-0 smackdown in Game 2? Kaput. The Phillies were a machine, but even machines break down. It's starting to feel like the Diamondbacks have momentum on their side.

Several parties deserve blame for the Phillies' meltdown, from the ice-cold bats of Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott, to the questionable strategic maneuvers of Rob Thomson in the manager's seat.

If one specific person were to shoulder the brunt of the blame, however, it would have to be Craig Kimbrel. The 35-year-old, with nine All-Stars berths and a World Series victory under his belt, has blown two straight leads to allow Arizona back into the series.

Kimbrel is the first Phillies reliever to lose back-to-back postseason appearances since Mitch Williams in the 1993 World Series. This isn't exactly a new development for Kimbrel either. He infamously ran into similar postseason issues with the Boston Red Sox during the 2018 title run.

That serves as proof that a team can overcome Kimbrel's inconsistency in clutch moments. It also serves as proof of a continuing trend that, given Kimbrel's age, cannot be ignored. Once considered the best closer in the MLB, Kimbrel simply doesn't have the same command over his stuff. He still packs major heat, and he's still a competent reliever, but he's prone to lapses — lapses the Phillies can ill afford at this critical juncture.

How can the Phillies proceed with Craig Kimbrel?

Rob Thomson made the (in hindsight, poor) decision to dip into his bullpen in the third inning of Friday's Game 4 loss. It was a critical moment in the game as Philadelphia sought to avoid a major deficit early on, but it also forced Philadelphia to double-dip on several key relievers.

Kimbrel entered the game in the eighth inning with Philadelphia in front, 5-3. Thomson made the intelligent decision to save Jose Alvarado for a potential ninth-inning save based on Kimbrel's poor Game 3 performance... but Kimbrel fumbled away another lead, allowing three hits, including a game-tying home run to Alek Thomas, before plunking Corbin Carroll to move the winning run into scoring position.

Thomson couldn't even wait until the ninth inning to break glass on Alvarado, who has clearly emerged as the Phillies' new closer until Kimbrel wins the job back — if he ever does.

There is even a question about whether or not the Phillies will use Kimbrel as a late-innings setup man in the games to come. When asked by reporters about Kimbrel's status moving forward, Thomson said the Phillies "have to talk about it." He went on to mention the possibility of using Kimbrel at less important junctures.

Unfortunately, Kimbrel isn't the only Phillies reliever on the struggle bus. Gregory Soto gave up a run in Game 4. Rookie Orion Kekering struggled mightily with his slider after a similarly ineffective stint in Game 3. It's not like Philadelphia has a ton of great options who are dealing at the moment. If Kimbrel isn't reliable, neither is Plan B.

One has to imagine Philadelphia will stick with Alvarado in the closing spot, but beyond that, it's difficult to imagine a huge strategic shift from Thomson. He has been confident in his pitchers all season, often to great effect. Kimbrel has a better resume than any reliever in the postseason. If anyone has earned the benefit of the doubt, however slim, it's him.

Philadelphia probably won't bench Kimbrel. He won't be excised from the rotation entirely. That said, do not be shocked if the Phillies steer clear late in a close game. Kimbrel — with a 2023 postseason record of 0-2 and a ghastly 7.20 ERA — has earned some time in the doghouse, so to speak.