Pirates should actually be praying Paul Skenes falls out of Rookie of the Year race

The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost 10 straight to plummet out of postseason contention. Major changes are on the horizon. We can't quite close to book on this season, but it's hard to imagine Pittsburgh turning this ship around after such a dispiriting stretch. There are major issues to address in that organization, starting at the top.

If there's a bright spot, it has to be Paul Skenes' continued evolution on the mound. He is a special talent and the current odds-on favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year. Boasting a 2.25 ERA through 15 starts and 92.0 innings pitched, Skenes may even have a Cy Young case. Pound for pound, there hasn't been a more electric pitcher in the National League this season.

Despite the impressive numbers, there is a bit of panic bubbling up within the fandom. Skenes has hit a bump in the road. He's is 0-2 over his last four starts and the Pirates are 1-3 in that span. After looking unhittable out of the gate, Skenes has seen his velocity dip and his proficiency waver over the last few weeks. Hitters are starting to figure him out.

That was always going to happen — every young pitcher runs into an adjustment period — but Skenes' unique arm requires special care. He's probably going to hit an innings limit eventually, as Pittsburgh has been overly cautious all season. There's no benefit to running Skenes into the ground if the postseason is out of reach.

That could ultimately impact Skenes' award candidacy. On the surface, that's a bummer for Pittsburgh fans. In reality, however, it could actually be a blessing in disguise.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

Pirates probably secretly hope that Paul Skenes loses Rookie of the Year race

Skenes is currently tied for third in fWAR among National League rookies. He sits at 2.6, while San Diego Padres All-Star Jackson Merrill (3.6) and San Francisco Giants breakout Tyler Fitzgerald (3.2) top the leaderboard.

If Skenes does not finish top-two in ROY voting, which would be a complete departure from season-long expectations, the Pirates aren't billed for a full year of service time. That means Pittsburgh gets an additional season of control over Skenes' contract.

If we want to project forward, Skenes' second MLB contract is sure to get expensive. We cannot account for potential injuries or the myriad uncertainties held by the future, but Skenes is one of the best pitching talents in recent memory. An extra season of team control could save the Pirates a ton of cash, and it could ultimately prove essential to Pittsburgh's long-term plans.

The Pirates are not exactly known for their sky-high payroll. We don't see Pittsburgh shell out major contracts to very many players. Skenes ought to break the mold, but he can also wait until free agency and test the open waters, even if the Pirates want to extend him. The longer he is under guaranteed team control, the longer Pittsburgh can go without worrying about Skenes' wandering eyes.

Skenes has certainly earned his way into the Rookie of the Year conversation. If a lack of reps is held against Skenes, the same argument can be mounted against the aforementioned Fitzgerald. Momentum appears to side with San Diego's Merrill right now, but Skenes has the name recognition and the elite stuff to command a top-two spot if the Pirates let him finish out the campaign.

It would almost certainly require drastic measures from Pittsburgh, such as shutting Skenes down prematurely to "avoid injury," to keep him out of ROY and maintain that extra season of team control. The risk of such a strategy, of course, is that Skenes probably sees right through it. The Pirates don't want to upset their superstar with a blatant financial ploy.

Only time will tell how Skenes' award candidacy plays out, but Pittsburgh fans should probably be rooting for Jackson Merill and Tyler Fitzgerald under their breath. The front office surely is.