Possible cause of rise in pitcher injuries might be cause for concern for Cubs

Following several devastating elbow injuries to pitchers around MLB to start the season, one of the main storylines of the year has swirled around the cause of the seeming rise in injuries to the game's premier pitchers.

Shane Bieber, Gerrit Cole, Jonathan Loaisiga and Spencer Strider are all names that have hit the 15-day IL or longer thanks to forearm or elbow problems.

The players union has taken the situation into its hands and blamed MLB for instituting pitch clock in 2023, suggesting the greater fatigue from the decreased time in between pitches is to blame. MLB disagrees, and it's not the only theory, with other theories even going back to 2021 when "sticky stuff" was banned. Tyler Glasnow said then that the elimination of sticky stuff -- in particular with no less demand for high-level velocity -- produced more wear and tear on the arm.

The Athletic's Eno Sarris published an interesting look into the situation on Tuesday (subscription required) morning that examined the issue top to bottom. He referenced one particular scientific study that suggests an important indicator of injury trouble that could be trouble for the Cubs.

Two Cubs pitchers are pushing the envelope on their velocity, which may not be good

The study, which can be found here, posits a few important takeaways, but one of the most simplified ones is that, when it comes to injury risk, velocity is a massive contributor. The study suggests that the more frequently pitchers come close to their top-line velocity, the more likely, statistically speaking, they are to suffer an injury.

While it's just one study, the crucial outcome, to me, is this:

"We believe that pitchers should focus on using good mechanics, developing command, determining the minimum level of pitch intensity necessary to obtain the outcome they desire for each of their pitches, and learning to recognize when using maximum velocity becomes necessary."

Statistics has likely tilted the conversation toward raw speed, but teams should encourage pitchers to think about results and availability. Sure, a 100 MPH fastball might get you the result you want, but could you get the same result at 92 MPH, and reduce the risk you miss games? You can't drive outcomes from the bench.

It's too early to make sweeping determinations, but looking at pitchers through April 9th that have thrown at least 85 pitches, the median distance between a pitcher's peak velocity and their median velocity is 5.6 miles per hour. Two Cubs pitchers, Shota Imanaga and Jordan Wicks, are pushing the envelope on touching their top-line speed more frequently.

Imanaga only has 2.5 miles per hour, 17th-lowest in MLB, between his top-line and his median, and Wicks 2.9 miles per hour, 30th-lowest in MLB.

Cherry-picking pitchers from this list is not a guarantee they're at huge risk of injury, it's just one of many risk factors to consider, especially with most pitchers only having logged a start or two to this point, but still is worth noting.

Pitchers with smallest distance between top velocity and median velocity through April 8

Pitchers with the highest median velocity through April 8

If velocity is, in fact, the largest contributor, median pitch velocity should be of interest, too.

Pitchers with most pitches above 95 MPH through April 8

As far as times thrown over the 95 miles per hour pitch, here's how the leaderboard looks: