Power Ranking every No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick of the 21st century

The NFL Draft is where hope lives higher than at any point on the NFL calendar. Even higher than Week 1, teams can talk themselves into greatness at the draft. It’s happened many times. Look no further than 2023 when the Houston Texans took an incredible risk so they could draft both CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. Most thought they were insane to give up their 2024 draft pick, but they ended up making the playoffs thanks to the bold move.

The hope goes up a notch when a team has the No. 1 overall pick. Unlike other sports, there is no lottery in the NFL, so the team that gets the top overall pick is exclusively the worst team in the league (unless that team traded the pick to someone else, like the Carolina Panthers did this year). 

Fourteen players have become Hall of Famers after they were taken first overall, but we haven’t had a Hall of Famer from the position since Peyton Manning in 1998. Obviously, there are some options that could make the Hall still, but as of now, there hasn’t been one this century. 

So, with Caleb Williams widely assumed to become the 25th number-one overall pick since the turn of the millennium, let’s rank them. 

25-21

25. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders, 2007

JaMarcus Russell is younger than Aaron Rodgers. It literally feels like a generation since he was in the league, and that’s because he had such little impact and was gone before we knew it. He was built like a brick house, standing at almost 6-foot-6 and 265 lbs. Teams fell in love with him during the Combine process. 

The conversation was between Russell and Brady Quinn, who didn’t have that good a career himself. However, Russell was on another level of bad. It started with a holdout that went into Week 1 of his rookie season before he signed a $68 million contract. He didn’t start until the final game of his rookie year, and he played awfully before he left the game with an injury. 

Russell played for three seasons before the Raiders outright cut him. They traded for Jason Campbell just to use as a replacement in 2010. Russell was constantly overweight and under-conditioned. He made a litany of mistakes on the field, and football didn’t seem too important to him. It’s insane the Raiders placed their entire franchise in his hands, and he didn’t last two years as the starter. He also never played again. 

It doesn’t help that the Raiders could have taken Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas (who went second or third). Both were Hall of Famers, as was Darrelle Revis and Patrick Willis who went in the top 15. It’s a rough one for the Raiders, that’s for sure. 

24. David Carr, Houston Texans, 2002

David Carr might be right next to Russell on this list, but they are here for very different reasons. While Russell seemed to be a player who fell below expectations because of his own decisions, David Carr was put in a position to fail. He was the very first pick of the newly established Houston Texans. 

The Fresno State product was coming off a ridiculous 48-touchdown campaign. Things started off very well in Houston with Carr helping the Texans beat the Dallas Cowboys on national television in their very first game, a huge upset. Unfortunately, it went downhill from there. The Texans went through offensive line injuries, and nobody protected Carr. He was sacked an NFL record 76 times. 

He was never the same, and the Texans QB1 just didn’t have the protection to succeed. He led the league in sacks three out of the five years he was in Houston. He did lead the league in completion percentage in his final year in Houston, but that wasn’t enough to keep his job. The Texans decided to go in a different direction, trading for Matt Schaub and cutting Carr in 2007.

He would go on to play for the Giants, Panthers, and 49ers before calling it a career. He never got an opportunity to start again, and he finished his career 267 sacks, which is 75th all time (despite only really starting for five seasons). We’ll never know what Carr would have been if he was kept upright, but he wasn’t, and now he’s near the bottom of this list. 

23. Courtney Brown, Cleveland Browns, 2000

The return of the Cleveland Browns started with a thud. The 1999 team had No. 1 overall pick Tim Couch trying to change the culture for the Browns. He couldn’t do it that first season, winning only two games. With Couch firmly in the seat as the quarterback of the future, the Browns wanted to focus on other positions. It made sense, with the short-armed but deadly accurate QB Chad Pennington as the top player at the position.

So, the Browns would be going after another position to bolster the roster. The expected top two picks were defensive players out of Penn State. The Browns chose to take defensive tackle Courtney Brown over linebacker LaVar Arrington. Not many hated the move at the time, as the margin between them seemed like it was razor-thin.

Brown was not good in the NFL. He was decent in his rookie season, producing 69 tackles and 4.5 sacks. Then, he looked like a star for a few games in 2001, but injuries cut his season short. That would become the theme of his career. He could never stay healthy, and it really brought his ability down. After six seasons, the last one with the Denver Broncos, Brown was out of the league.

The Browns took Brown when they could have had Arrington, Brian Urlacher, Jamal Lewis, Chris Samuels, and Shaun Alexander. Instead, they got five seasons of mediocre play (when he wasn’t injured) and another failed first-overall pick (as Couch was never good, either). 

22. Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2015

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a choice to make in 2015. They could take the controversial Jameis Winston, who had upside for days and was a national champion. He looked like a safe pick when it came to talent, but he was absolutely not the safe pick when it came to character. That was Marcus Mariota. The Bucs went with Winston, and it had middling results.

Winston showed the skill on multiple occasions. He had a good start, being the first rookie in Buccaneers history to be elected to the Pro Bowl. He did replace Tom Brady, but a Pro Bowl is a Pro Bowl! He had 4,000 yards passing in each of his first two seasons. 

He always had an interception problem, but the interception problem usually gets better. Peyton Manning had an interception problem. Josh Allen had an interception problem. Jameis Winston still has an interception problem. It hit a nadir when he became the first player to go 30 and 30, meaning 30 touchdowns and interceptions. 

That season, the Bucs replaced Winston with Tom Brady and won the Super Bowl. showing they really had most of the pieces to a championship puzzle. Winston went to the New Orleans Saints to play under Drew Brees. Then, he played under Andy Dalton. Then, he played under Derek Carr. For the life of him, he couldn't win the starter’s job in New Orleans, and now he’s looking for a new gig with the Cleveland Browns.

21. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers, 2023

The Carolina Panthers made a power move in 2023, trading a haul that included star wide receiver D.J. Moore and their 2024 first-round pick to move up and take the Alabama star with the first overall pick. The Chicago Bears had Justin Fields under center, so they wanted to give that one more shot. The Panthers were very excited to send their future to the Windy City in exchange for hope. 

Now, just one year later, the Panthers are in a very scary spot. Bryce Young looked broken at times last season. He didn’t want to run by the end of the year. The explosive plays we saw at Alabama just didn’t exist on his highlight reel. It was really bad when Andy Dalton looked better in this offense during the weeks Young was hurt.

It makes it even worse that C.J. Stroud, the second-overall pick that head coach Frank Reich apparently liked, crushed the league and led the Texans to the playoffs while winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud looks like the future of the position. Young is an afterthought. Heck, Anthony Richardson has a better profile than Young despite missing almost all of last season with multiple injuries. 

This is almost hilariously too early, but we saw nothing out of Young last season that even gave a glimmer of hope for his future. That could change overnight, but smaller QBs need to have Superman levels of skill. We thought that was Young coming out of college, but it hasn’t translated. We will be patient, but that patience will wear pretty thin if he doesn’t show something this season. 

20-16

20. Eric Fisher, Kansas City Chiefs, 2013

The year is 2013, and offensive tackle is all the rage. Teams are overspending to protect their quarterback's blindside. QBs are being protected more than ever before by the league’s rules, but it’s still important to protect them on the field. That’s how we got three tackles who fought for the number-one overall pick: Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel, and Lane Johnson. They ended up being three of the first four picks in the draft. 

This draft has a ton of busts. Tavon Austin, Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo, Dee Millner, and E.J. Manuel were just some of the examples who failed miserably. So, it’s hard to argue Fisher should be in the “bust” level because he was still pretty decent. 

It’s hard to quantify Fisher’s impact to the Chiefs. He was the team’s left tackle during their first Super Bowl run, protecting the blindside of Patrick Mahomes. He made two Pro Bowls with the Chiefs. Again, this was a decent run, but one expects a ton more from an offensive lineman taken first overall.

This was just an awful draft. The Chiefs are happy they got a number-one overall level player later in the draft to make up for what they missed at the top. They took tight end Travis Kelce in the third round, a player who will walk into Canton.

19. Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2022

Alright, this is way too early, but it has to be getting a little scary for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who took Travon Walker first overall over Aidan Hutchinson, who looks REAL good over in Detroit. Walker was a surprise first-overall pick once it became clear he was going to be the pick. In NFL.com Daniel Jeremiah’s first mock draft of that offseason, which came after the college season had ended, Walker was predicted to be the 13th pick. Evan Neal was going to be the Jaguars in that mock draft.

It always felt like a risky pick. Besides Hutchinson and Neal, the Jaguars looked past cornerback Sauce Gardner, safety Kyle Hamilton, cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., and pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. All these defensive players would have been much better picks than Walker. 

Some might be able to at least see what the Jaguars were trying to convey with the pick. Walker showed a ton of upside at the University of Georgia. The “hope” drew the Jaguars in. Yet, he hasn’t shown that upside yet. There were glimpses this year, with 10 sacks this season. 

This is revisionist history, and Walker was always going to take some time to see what he really could be. However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Hutchinson, Gardner, and others could be on Jacksonville transforming this defense. Walker has been fine, but he hasn’t been transformative. 

18. Caleb Williams (projected), Chicago Bears, 2024

There’s an early projection, and then there’s this. Caleb Williams is going to the Chicago Bears unless they make the surprise of the century. The Bears already traded Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a sixth-round pick (that could become a fourth with playing time). The trade shows they had no interest in keeping Fields and finally just took the best possible value despite at one point asking for multiple high picks for him. 

Analysts were talking about Williams for more than two years. Last year, he looked like he was going to be an Elway-Luck-level prospect. Unfortunately, he had a down year at USC. That’s why he’s not higher on this list (also he hasn’t played an NFL snap). Still, he comes into the league with by far the best skillset and is built to be an NFL QB.

Some call Williams the best prospect in a decade. Yes, that’s revisionist history, but these opinions are out there. Williams could be a top QB with Mahomes and Allen at his best, and his floor still feels like a top-15 QB in the league for 15 years. 

Williams could be the best quarterback in Bears history without trying very hard. He just has to be better than Jay Cutler and Jim McMahon. That… shouldn’t be too hard. And it shouldn’t be too hard to move up this list, either. 

17. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams, 2010

Sam Bradford was a fine NFL quarterback. He was never close to that upper echelon of player, but he also never completely bottomed out. He was fine. That’s it. It’s really not what you want from a top overall pick. Nobody really calls Bradford a bust or even declares him a disappointment, but that’s because he never had that single devastating season. 

Bradford made his money on accuracy alone. He prioritized hitting receivers early and often. He once led the league in passing accuracy, doing it in his final year as a starter in 2016. Yeah, for those doing the math, Bradford was only a true starting QB for less than a decade. He jumped in as the starter for the St. Louis Rams in 2010, putting up 18 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. It didn’t even matter, because he still won Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

He eventually made fewer mistakes, and he became a competently average quarterback. During his entire career, Bradford never broke 4,000 yards in a season. He never had more than 15 passing touchdowns in a season, and he did that in his rookie year. 

Bradford’s biggest impact on the game was when he was traded. The Philadelphia Eagles kept multiple QBs on the roster in 2016, going deep into training camp with Bradford, Carson Wentz, and Chase Daniel on the roster. Many thought Bradford would be traded earlier, but the Eagles acted as if they would go into the season with all three. Then, Teddy Bridgewater suffered a major injury, and the Vikings gave the Eagles a haul for Bradford. 

16. Jake Long, Miami Dolphins, 2008

Jake Long was coming out of the University of Michigan as a physical specimen. That translated to a massive performance at the combine, where Long hit 37 reps on the bench press and measured at 6-7 and 313 lbs. The Miami Dolphins were trying to transform a team that hadn’t been good since Dan Marino retired, so they paired Long with his college quarterback Chad Henne. 

It’s not like Long was a bust. He was fine. However, when an offensive tackle is taken with the first-overall pick, he needs to be close to a Hall of Famer. Long wasn’t there. He was a four-time Pro Bowler and made the first-team All-Pro once. It was all well and good.

This draft was a draft of misses for the Dolphins. They took Phillip Merling over Brandon Flowers or Jordy Nelson in the second round. They took Henne over Martellus Bennett later in the second round, and then a few picks later they took Kendall Langford over Jamaal Charles. They took another offensive tackle in Shawn Murphy, who didn’t last two years in Miami despite being a fourth-round pick. Basically, the Dolphins had nine picks, and none was a huge difference-maker.

The worst of all was probably the Dolphins taking Long over Matt Ryan. They could have had an MVP-level quarterback for more than a decade. Instead, Henne lasted four seasons, a starter for two. Long was good but not great, and the Dolphins are still one of the worst franchises this century.

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15. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns, 2018

Most of Baker Mayfield’s career has been a surprise. He was a surprise when he made the Texas Tech roster as a walk on. That went one step further when he was named the starter after Michael Brewer suffered a back injury before Week 1. Mayfield became the first player to start a Division I season opener at the quarterback position. His play surprised everyone, and that led to an amazing career after his transfer to Oklahoma. He was a surprise when he won the Heisman Trophy, and then he was an even bigger surprise when he usurped Sam Darnold as the first overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. 

Mayfield even today is defying the odds. Even though he was given up on, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave him a chance to compete, and now he’s a $30+ million player again. He has some star power in him, breaking 4,000 yards for the first time this past season. He’s also thrown for a career-high 28 touchdowns. 

His career didn’t start off bad at all. He looked like the Cleveland Browns finally got it right, as Sam Darnold was failing in New Jersey and Josh Allen was still making mistakes that made him a question mark. Meanwhile, Mayfield threw for 20+ touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. Of course, it didn’t end well as Mayfield took a step back in his fourth season. He was traded to the Panthers, and that went about as well as any QB has done in Carolina lately.

Mayfield is this far down the list because of the disaster that was the 2023 season and the fact that the Browns could have had Josh Allen, who is now one of the three best quarterbacks in the league. Instead, the Browns felt the need to sell their soul and their future of Deshaun Watson. However, Mayfield found greener pastures in Tampa. 

14. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2021

This one is going to be controversial, but we don’t want to throw out our expectations for Trevor Lawrence because of one poor season. Honestly, it was just a poor second half for Trevor Lawrence, and it was probably because of injuries. More on that in a moment, but let’s talk about what Lawrence has done so far. 

First, let’s talk about the pick. Lawrence was one of those QB prospects we talked about for years. Since he started in the National Championship Game as a true freshman, draft analysts were drooling at the idea of what he could do in the NFL. When he was finally eligible to come out, there was literally nobody in the league expecting anyone else to go first. Some say the Jacksonville Jaguars might have tanked for Lawrence specifically (but shhh don’t tell anyone).

Now that he’s in the NFL, he’s had some ups and downs. He did commit the greatest comeback in NFL playoff history two seasons ago against the Los Angeles Chargers, but his rookie season produced another number-one overall pick (who’s lower on this list). He’s thrown for 4,000 yards twice already, but he’s led the league in either interceptions or fumbles lost in every season he’s been in the league.

The pieces are there to showcase an absolute superstar. He went into last season looking like a top-five player at the position, but that obviously didn’t work out. We shall see if he will live up to the hype. Only time will tell, but we still like what we’ve seen better than a lot of previous number-one overall picks. 

13. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, 2019

The Arizona Cardinals almost never have had a player as talented as Kyler Murray on the roster, especially at the quarterback position. The Cardinals have had four first overall picks in its history, but four of them came when they were in Chicago. Since moving to Arizona in 1988, the team has been putrid. However, the only number-one pick they have is Mr. Kyler Murray.

Murray is a hard player to quantify. He’s had moments where he looked like he was easily a top-ten quarterback. His small stature is definitely a negative in most eyes, but his talent is undeniable. That’s why he’s the first player to go in the top five of the NFL and MLB Drafts. 

In the league, he’s been decent. Has he been good? Sure. He hasn’t been great. He did win the Offensive Rookie of the Year in his first year, but that Cardinals team won just five games. After showing some sparks in 2019, the Cardinals traded for DeAndre Hopkins to help give Murray a competent roster. They were magic together, and Murray made two straight Pro Bowls. 

Over the past two seasons, Murray’s future has become murky. He was mediocre in 2022 before suffering a season-ending injury. That injury bled into 2023 as trade rumors went wild. He eventually came back as the Cardinals were floundering, and he played quite well. He showed some of those sparks that had the Cardinals excited in the first place. Now, he’s looking like the guy that deserved that No. 1 pick out of Oklahoma. 

12. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers, 2005

This one is hard because the San Francisco 49ers very famously missed on this pick, taking Utah’s Alex Smith over Cal’s Aaron Rodgers in a battle between future Pac-12 schools (RIP). Smith is a player who wasn’t terrible by any means, but Rodgers is a four-time MVP. 

Smith’s time in San Francisco was fraught with controversies, injuries, and inconsistent play. Eventually, they hired Jim Harbaugh and he went with Colin Kaepernick. Smith would move on to the Kansas City Chiefs, and he was really good there. Ironically, with Patrick Mahomes backing him up as a rookie, Smith had his best season. He broke 4,000 yards for the first and only time, had a career-high 26 touchdowns and a 104.7 QB rating. 

He would go on to Washington where he suffered one of the worst injuries we’ve ever seen on the field. His leg was viciously broken in the 10th game of his first season in burgundy. It seemed like Joe Theismann before him, (with both injuries having eerie similarities) Smith’s career would end here. 

Instead, Smith rehabbed with an entire year on the shelf, and he eventually was able to get back in a game in the strange world of the NFL in 2020. He ended up playing eight games that season before retiring. He finished his career with a few records, including a perfect passer rating in a 2013 game and most passes to start a season without throwing an interception.

11. Jadeveon Clowney, Houston Texans, 2014

Has one play ever built the aura around a player quite like Jadeveon Clowney’s hit on Michigan’s Vincent Smith in the Outback Bowl? He destroyed that man in the backfield, and his march to the first overall pick started that day. Clowney had another year at South Carolina before he would make it to the NFL, and everyone expected him to be great off the bat. 

Clowney was the Texans’ third first-overall pick in its short history. Some of the teams that would surprise you who had fewer first-overall picks include the Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and New York Jets. However, this one seemed like it was going to change this team in the long run. 

Clowney unfortunately never lived up to his incredibly high expectations. To this point, he has never hit 10 sacks in a season. His first season was cut short by a spat of injuries. The Texans traded him to the Seattle Seahawks as soon as his first contract ended and they placed the franchise tag on him. He’s been with the Hawks, Browns, Titans, and most recently the Ravens. Clowney was pretty good last year, recording 9.5 sacks on the top-seeded Ravens. 

Clowney just signed with the Carolina Panthers, going back to where he made a name for himself in the first place. He can be a big fish in a little pond there, but at 31 years old, we’ve probably seen the best of Clowney, and it wasn’t near the hype. 

10-6

10. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams, 2016

What a glow up for Jared Goff. The Los Angeles Rams once gave up a first-round pick in the Matthew Stafford deal just to get Goff’s contract off the books (at least, that’s the speculation). Sure, the Rams won the Super Bowl, so they are happy, but Goff got the last laugh this season when he beat the Rams in the playoffs. He was the right quarterback at the right time to turn this Detroit Lions franchise. 

Goff had some good years in Los Angeles, too. They traded up to draft him over Carson Wentz. That decision has gone through multiple levels of good and bad, with Wentz leading at times but Goff eventually taking the lead for good as Wentz has trouble sticking in the league. Goff’s best season in LA saw him throw for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns, leading the Rams to a 13-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance. 

That Super Bowl was awful as the Rams failed to score a touchdown against the Patriots, and Goff fell off a cliff from there. In 2019, he threw more passes than anyone in the league (626). He somehow had fewer yards than the year before. The Rams gave him one more year to turn it around before it was clear a change of scenery was necessary for all parties. 

After coming to Detroit, it wasn’t even clear if he would be the starter. However, the Lions did nothing to bring in competition for Goff, showing a team still had faith in him. He rewarded them with two stellar seasons, including a run to the NFC Championship Game this past season. Now at just 29 years old, Goff might take this Lions team to the next level. 

9. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals, 2003

Carson Palmer at times looked like he was right on the precipice of being a superstar quarterback. He had moments in Cincinnati where it felt as if they had finally found their savior. The Bengals had years of bad quarterback play after losing Boomer Esiason, but Palmer would be the guy to change it all. It turns out, this was not the future that Palmer wanted. 

Eight seasons in his career was enough time in Cincy to call it quits. Palmer threatened retirement, and said he’s rather leave the game he loved and millions of dollars instead of putting on orange again. We suppose it had a lot more to do with roster construction and ownership, but the orange couldn’t have helped. He was eventually allowed to seek a trade, and the Oakland Raiders came in with a big price and got him.

Palmer wasn’t very good in Oakland, so we’ll just skip over that. Let’s jump to Arizona, where Palmer was one of the good ones. Between Kurt Warner and Palmer, the Cardinals just need to get the old guys to turn this team around. 

Palmer finished his career with 46,000 yards passing and 294 touchdowns. He currently sits 15th all-time in yards. He was a big playmaker, but he lacked a little bit to get him higher on this list. His numbers on the whole are impressive, but we just wished we saw more success. 

8. Mario Williams, Houston Texans, 2006

Mario Williams was actually really good. We remember this for the moment we learned Reggie Bush, a superstar running back who could play all over the field and impact the game from day one, would not be Houston’s pick. Neither would championship quarterback and fan favorite Vince Young. Instead, they went with the physical beast that was Mario Williams. 

Honestly, they made the right decision. Sure, Williams wasn’t a Hall of Famer, and that is what one would want in a defensive first-overall pick, but this was a strange draft. There is only one Hall of Famer in here, and it is Devin Hester who was a kick returner. There are plenty of Pro Bowlers, but Williams has as good a resume as any.

Williams finished his career with three All-Pro (two second teams), he broke 10 sacks five times in his career, and he even got votes for Defensive Player of the Year in his sophomore season. Unfortunately, his career in Houston didn’t last long. He only spent six seasons there, leaving after an injury-riddled 2011. 

Williams continued his career with the Buffalo Bills, and once again, he was good. He finished his career with 97.5 sacks, good for 68th all-time. He had more career sacks than Warren Sapp, Howie Long, and Steve McMichael. Again, not a bad career at all. However, let’s not talk about his time with the Dolphins. 

7. Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons, 2001

Michael Vick was one of the most explosive players to ever play football. He was a marvel when he was coming out of Virginia Tech. His ability to break tackles and shoot the ball downfield was just something that didn’t exist in the league at the time. He seemed like a rich man’s Randall Cunningham. His ceiling was that of a multiple-time MVP. 

The Falcons were the team of the Dirty Bird and the surprise run to the 1998 Super Bowl. Now, they were must-see TV. Vick brought a ton more fans and eyeballs to Atlanta football. He could break a play at any time, so fans couldn’t stop watching. When he became the starter in 2002, he rushed for more than 750 yards while also setting the NFL record for most rushing yards in a game by a QB. It was capped off with this insane run in overtime to beat the Vikings. 

Vick rushed for 1,000 yards in 2006, the first quarterback to ever break that milestone. Unfortunately, that offseason is when his crimes involving dog fighting became apparent. The revelations were despicable, and it changed how we look at him as a player.

When Vick got out of prison, he signed with Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles. It made sense to rebuild his reputation while playing behind Donovan McNabb. He eventually showed he didn’t lose much in terms of talent, and the Eagles moved McNabb to switch to Vick. In 2010 and 2011, he became the premium weapon on the field. Unfortunately, it didn’t last long, and lost his starting role in 2013, spending the rest of his career as a backup.

6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 2020

Joe Burrow could very well be on the top of this list when his career is over. He’s solidified as one of the best quarterbacks in the league, constantly in conversations with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes at the top. He made an immediate impact, coming out of nowhere to lead the LSU Tigers to possibly the best college football season in history. There might have been a much bigger conversation about the top of the 2020 NFL Draft, but Tua Tagovailoa’s major hip injury made Burrow the easy pick. 

Burrow’s rookie season saw some flashes, but the team was not ready to compete. He had to get some of the kinks out, and it ended up working out because it put the Bengals in a position to draft his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, who is now one of the best receivers in the league. This gives Burrow a one-two punch that could last for a decade or more. 

This is going to be Burrow’s fifth season in the league in 2024. Last season was a wash due to injuries, suffering one in training camp that made him not right until October, and then he suffered a season ender in November. The injuries aren’t expected to linger, so he should be good to go.

Maybe this is too high too early, but Burrow has already been to a Super Bowl in his young career, and not many quarterbacks on this list can claim that. He is setting the stage for a Hall of Fame career, and he’s still the last person to beat Mahomes in the playoffs. His playoff performances is why the Bengals have Super Bowl hope, finally getting the right player under center for this franchise. 

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5. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts, 2012

Andrew Luck was the next big thing coming out of Stanford in 2012. He was considered the best quarterback prospect since John Elway, who was considered the best prospect ever. Teams were salivating at the chance to add Luck, who not only had all the skill but was incredibly intelligent and humble. So, of course, the Indianapolis Colts got the opportunity when Peyton Manning’s neck injury ended up costing him his last season in Indy. 

The Colts somehow had a chance to go from one legendary quarterback to another. Luck showed immediately that he was worth the hype. He played all 16 games in his rookie season, leading the Colts to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth one year after picking first overall. He was amazing in those first three seasons, even leading the league with 40 touchdowns in 2014. This looked like a Hall of Famer if we’ve ever seen one. 

Then, things started to get harder. There were some playoff disappointments (including Deflategate), but what really became a problem was injuries. Luck, who was miraculously healthy over his first three seasons, started to get beat up in year four. It never stopped, and he even missed the entire 2017 season. Luck was clearly getting frustrated. Then, as he was preparing for the 2019 season, Luck retired after a preseason game. He was walking away from the game at 29 years old and leaving millions of dollars on the table. Realistically, Luck could have made another $350 million in his career. 

Luck is still in the top five because he was exactly what we thought he would be. This was the right pick, even if the Colts are still recovering from his retirement five years later. They drafted Anthony Richardson last year, but he’s already dealt with injuries. Luck is still just 34 years old. Maybe these ridiculous quarterback contracts will drive him to change his mind one day.

4. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, 2011

Cam Newton is here because of his height. He was a player that beat expectations, even the ones that come with a first-overall pick. We might forget that now after years of Newton trying to hold onto his superstar days, but Newton was a phenomenon when he joined Carolina in 2011.

Newton was immediately great, putting together one of the best rookie seasons we’ve ever seen. In his very first game, he threw for 422 yards and two touchdowns. Some were surprised when he beat out Derek Anderson and Jimmy Claussen in training camp, but it was evident this was the right decision from Week 1. He beat that in Week 2 against the defending champion Green Bay Packers, throwing for 432 yards. He won the Offensive Rookie of the Year while breaking multiple rookie records. 

His best season came in 2015, when Newton threw for 3,837 yards and 35 touchdowns while leading the team to a 15-1 record. He kept winning, driving the Panthers to their second Super Bowl appearance. He did lose to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, but it seemed like the start of a special career.

It was a weird end to his tenure in Carolina, as he was still taking the risks he always did but they weren’t paying off nearly as much. He never came close to the touchdown numbers, but his rushing numbers stayed high and kept him relevant. He then succeeded Tom Brady in New England, playing a brand new offense that was rush first, including from the QB. The Patriots were decent in that first season, but he eventually lost the starting job to Mac Jones (lol) and he was just a spot starter from then on. Now, it appears his career might be over. It was a meteoric rise and a pretty flat ending. 

3. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions, 2009

Matthew Stafford is looking at the end of his career, playing into his mid-to-late 30s with the Los Angeles Rams. He feels like he’s been in the league for a long time. He was the first overall pick for the Detroit Lions, a team that lost every single game in 2008. 

Stafford changed the culture and expectations in Detroit. Instead of thinking “please just dont stink,” Stafford brought this team to multiple postseason berths. His connection with Calvin Johnson was legendary. They took over the NFC North (even if they always came up just short from winning the division). Stafford was leading an offense that overcame mistakes by ownership and the front office. 

The main issue with Stafford’s career in Detroit was his lack of postseason success, never winning a playoff game in his Lions career. He did get screwed by the refs playing Dallas in 2014, but that is going to happen. He was there for a while, and he probably could have done a little more, but Stafford was hardly the issue for Detroit.

We learned that when he was traded to the Los Angeles Rams. Stafford was not only electric under center in the regular season, but he was amazing in the postseason. He threw for the second-most yards in a single postseason in history, and he was the first quarterback since Eli Manning to have a fourth quarter comeback in the conference championship and Super Bowl in the same season. As we see the end for Stafford, we appreciate how good he was for a team that failed to build around him. We’re happy Detroit is finally committed to winning, so good for Goff. 

2. Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns, 2017

For the first time this century, we get a defensive player with the first-overall pick that absolutely lived up to every second of hype built around him. Myles Garrett is probably the best defensive player in the league, and the league agreed, naming him the Defensive Player of the Year for the 2023 season. He’s a three-time first-team All-Pro, and he’s the reason the Browns defense is considered the best in the NFL.

Garrett has hit at least 10 sacks in every year of his career outside his rookie season. He’s peaked with back-to-back 16-sack seasons in 2021 and 2022. Even with those sack numbers, Garrett is somehow even better at stopping the run. He is in the backfield every play without overcommitting, making life easy for his linebackers and safeties. 

What’s wild is Garrett is just getting started. He doesn’t turn 29 years old until December. He might be in the league another 10 years. Yet, he’s already 94th all-time with 88.5 career sacks. If he matches his current number for the second half of his career (which seems likely since it will be three extra seasons), he’d finish his career third all-time behind Reggie White and Bruce Smith. 

Garrett is the closest thing we’ve had to a player who could theoretically beat Bruce Smith’s record of 200 sacks. He’s averaged 12.5 sacks so far in his career, including his rookie year. If he remains on that average, he’d need to play 16 seasons to match Smith’s record. That not only seems possible, but it might be a good bet. 

1. Eli Manning, San Diego Chargers/New York Giants, 2004

This draft was wild, with three amazing quarterbacks near the top. Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were all expected to be really good. Unlike other drafts, they all ended up being great. They had different situations, but all three lived up to the expectations and draft spot. Manning and Roethlisberger both ended up winning two Super Bowls. That is why Manning is at the top of this list.

Eli being here might sound controversial, but so many people talk about how he was “overrated” that he’s become underrated. He forced his way away from San Diego and started his career with the New York Giants. As of this writing, his career saw him in the top ten all time in passing touchdowns and passing yards. Does that surprise you? It shouldn’t, as Eli had some great seasons in New Jersey.

However, Manning is here because he had ice water in his veins. His two Super Bowl runs were pure magic. The first season he brought an underdog Giants team through everyone on the way to face the undefeated New England Patriots. They went into the game as one of the biggest betting underdogs ever, but they ended up winning thanks to clutch plays by Manning, including the Helmet Catch. Then, in another great run in 2012-13, Manning had another legendary throw to Mario Manningham. 

Manning will never be confused with the best of all time, but he’s probably going into the Hall of Fame. And honestly, when you look at the entirety of his career, he deserves it.