Predicting a Dolphins-Tua Tagovailoa contract extension amid early MVP buzz

Tua Tagovailoa opened the NFL season with a bang. The Miami Dolphins QB led a rollicking, nail-biting comeback against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1. His numbers were patently absurd — 28-of-45 passes completed for 466 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.

The Alabama product struck up a fruitful connection with lead WR Tyreek Hill, who scampered behind the defense for 215 yards and two end zone visits on 11 catches. That duo alone is enough to instill optimism in the Dolphins fanbase. Add Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and Durham Smythe to the mix, and Miami's offense can hang with any team.

Tagovailoa's majestic Week 1 performance was enough to make him the MVP betting co-favorite with Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes. Is that a mild overreaction to one game? Probably, but it's also a credit to Tagovailoa's singular playmaking ability and the Dolphins' lofty offensive ceiling. When Miami is healthy and the offense is clicking, the numbers tend to balloon. The MVP is a numbers award as much as anything.

With Tagovailoa's stock back on the rise after a difficult 2022 campaign, it's only natural to look ahead to his next contract. The Dolphins will have to engage in extension talks soon. The team picked up the 25-year-old's $24.2 million option for next season, but after that Tagovailoa is free agent eligible.

Miami doesn't want to risk Tagovailoa's departure. The head injuries were deeply concerning last seaaon — and the Dolphins deserve the lion's share of the blame for how those events unfolded — but when he's right, Tua is an elite QB with a deep-rooted connection to the Dolphins' expensive offensive weapons.

He's going to get paid a handsome sum, health provided.

Predicting Tua Tagovailoa's next contract with the Miami Dolphins

The QB market is positively booming. Joe Burrow signed the most lucrative contract in NFL history last week, worth $275 million (with $219 million guaranteed) over five years. His 82 yards in Week 1 is a far cry from Tagovailoa's impressive total.

On a more serious note, Burrow is only the latest data point in an emergent trend. Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts all signed deals worth north of $50 million annually this summer. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott all make over $40 million annually.

Any half-decent QB is going to get paid. An MVP candidate? Well, apologies to the Dolphins checkbook.

There are a few lingering red flags with Tagovailoa that could impact the ceiling of his next contract. He suffered two head injuries last season. That was mostly the Dolphins' fault, but that won't stop Miami from factoring it into contract negotiations. Health has been a constant battle for Tagovailoa since reaching the NFL. He appeared in 13 games last season, 13 games in 2021, and only 10 games as a rookie. He tends to accrue bumps and bruises, partially due to Miami's feeble offensive line.

On the numbers front, however, Tagovailoa's case for top dollar is airtight. He led the NFL in touchdown percentage, QB rating, and yards per completion last season. He can effectively and efficiently manage the game (65.5 career completion percentage) while frequently ripping off big plays with his powerful arm, which is perfectly attuned to the Dolphins' speedy vertical threats at WR.

If the Dolphins don't pay Tagovailoa, somebody else will. It's hard to say he should or will break Burrow's record, but we have arrived at the point where the NFL contract record should be taken lightly. High-spending teams will throw money around to compete for a Super Bowl and again, Burrow is part of the upward trend — not the endpoint.

Prediction: 5 years, $255 million ($51 million annually with $185 million guaranteed)