Predicting every round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs: Are the Celtics beatable?

The NBA Playoffs are here, and we have a beautiful slate of games on the docket. The schedule couldn't have worked out much better. We get the Bucks-Pacers rivalry on the biggest stage. We get Minnesota-Phoenix, Mavs-Clippers, Cavs-Magic — all fascinating clashes in style. The Play-In Tournament will start with Philly-Miami, Joel Embiid vs. Jimmy Butler. This is the stuff we wait all season for.

We have been treated to some historically great basketball in 2024. Just look at the awards race. The West is topped by the best defense in recent history (Minnesota) and three bonafide MVP candidates (SGA, Jokic, Luka), not to mention the Clippers' star-studded — and, for the moment, relatively healthy — lineup. In the East, 64-win Boston profiles as arguably the best regular season team since the 73-win Warriors.

One could easily ride the Celtics all the way with their predictions. It's the safe pick, but oftentimes safe is the best route. We shall see how it unfolds. These are my postseason picks, which are sure to veer horribly off course at some point, so please save the receipts. If it ends up being a perfect bracket, well, you can meet me at the local gas station purchasing my lottery ticket in a couple months.

Let's dive in, round by round, starting with the Play-In Tournament.

NBA Playoffs: Predictions for the Play-In Tournament

No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 8 Miami Heat

A matchup that brings me great personal anxiety as a long-running victim of the Sixers misery machine. It's a pretty easy game to predict on paper. The Sixers have star-power, more depth, and a coach with actual chops for once. The Heat are tend to fade in and out of games on offense, but we haven't seen Miami at full throttle yet. We know the deal.

In the end, one has to pick the Sixers. This feels dangerously close to "the year" if Joel Embiid can actually stay healthy, which as ever is a gargantuan if. We also saw Miami lose the first Play-In game last year before going all the way to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed, so the Heat voodoo works in mysterious ways.

Prediction: 76ers win

No. 9 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 10 Atlanta Hawks

The Bulls are the peak of mediocirty in the NBA, rivaled only by the current iteration of this Hawks team. DeMar DeRozan is probably going to win Clutch Player of the Year, a real award that exists, so I don't want to understate his capacity for heroism. That said, Trae Young has done impressive work on the postseason stage before, and Atlanta certainly has the pure talent advantage in a straight matchup.

Of course, Zach LaVine is sidelined for the Bulls. Atlanta, meanwhile, happens to be without Jalen Johnson or Onyeka Okongwu. The former is a particularly critical absence. It certainly feels like the Bulls want it more. That entire team is committed to the bit — the "bit" being that milquetoast roster. The Hawks feel like a team ready to throw in the towel and blow it up during the offseason.

Prediction: Bulls win

No. 7 New Orleans Pelicans vs. No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers

The Pelicans are the better team, point blank. The Lakers have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, not to mention a fair bit of momentum built up down the stretch. It's a fascinating matchup. I'd personally toss Zion Williamson into the MVP mix; his performance over the second half of the season deserves more recognition. For New Orleans to be healthy at this point in the season is a real treat. Few teams possess a more potent blend of depth, balance, and coaching.

Los Angeles is at the coaching disadvantage most nights, but James and Davis are battle-tested. We are talking about one of the all-time greats in James, who has overcome much longer odds than "road team in a Play-In game." The Lakers also beat the Pelicans on Sunday — rather emphatically — to put New Orleans in the Play-In to begin with.

It's extremely risky to throw a Play-In game, but it's worth noting that Los Angeles matches up much better against No. 1 OKC, as opposed to No. 2 Denver. That could factor into how hard the Lakers play, even if intentionally setting up do-or-die circumstances in the second Play-In game is poor form.

Prediction: Pelicans win

No. 9 Sacramento Kings vs. No. 10 Golden State Warriors

Well, we saw how this played out last season. It was a fun series, full of great basketball, but the Warriors hold the upper-hand in terms of matchups. Golden State can go small and test Domantas Sabonis' defense. Both teams took a step back this season, but in the end, there's only one Stephen Curry.

That is the driving force behind this pick. Sacramento has plateaued in recent months, looking less and less like the sneaky Finals threat we all imagined after last season's success. Mike Brown is a great coach, and the Kings' offense is wondrous to behold when it's clicking. That said, experience wins out here. The Warriors won't fold in game one.

Prediction: Warriors win

No. 8 Miami Heat vs. No. 9 Chicago Bulls

With all due respect to the Chicago Bulls, this is Miami's territory. There is no way the Heat lose this game. We saw the exact same circumstance play out last season, with Chicago withering under the bright lights and melting in the game's final moments. The Heat will find a way to win this game, somehow, then probably take the 64-win Celtics to seven games (more on that momentarily).

Prediction: Heat win

No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 10 Golden State Warriors

This is what we all want, yeah? Lakers-Warriors, LeBron-Steph, with do-or-die stakes. Single elimination.

In all honesty, the standings betray the extent of the gap between these teams. Golden State's championship DNA has faded. The Lakers were in the conference finals last season. Anthony Davis is going to get DPOY votes, and LeBron tends to show up for these moments. Not that Steph doesn't, of course, but the Lakers feel slightly further removed from a state of utter collapse. This Warriors team is going to face serious internal deliberation and potentially foundational change this summer. The Lakers could too, but as long as LeBron sticks around, the status quo (give or take a blockbuster trade) should continue.

Prediction: Lakers win

NBA Playoffs: Predicting every first round series

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Miami Heat

The Celtics are an unbeatable buzzsaw, equipped with schematic versatility unmatched in the current NBA ecosystem. Boston has the ability to win different ways and play different styles. Joe Mazzulla has smartly used the Celtics' final weeks of virtually meaningless basketball to experiment with different looks and test his players in uncomfortable situations. The proof should be in the pudding this postseason.

Of course, a look below the hood unveils some lingering concerns. Miami beat the Celtics last season in seven games after jumping out to an impressive 3-0 lead. Boston still has the tendency to stall late in games, when decision-making gets dicey between its stars.

That shouldn't matter in this series, though. It's hard to imagine the Heat actually replicating last postseason's success, no matter how much confidence Jimmy Butler projects. Expect Boston to jump all over Miami. The Celtics have something to prove.

Prediction: Celtics in 4

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

Here's where it gets interesting. The Sixers are flat-out the better team on paper. The Knicks play hard as hell and we've seen Jalen Brunson work his magic in the playoffs, but Philadelphia has a bonafide MVP candidate, an All-Star point guard of their own, and one of the best supporting casts in the NBA. I'm also siding with Nick Nurse over Tom Thibodeau in a seven-game series as a matter of principle.

Health is the big, neon-glowing question mark hanging over this Sixers team. So is continuity, to a lesser extent, as Embiid only has a few games under his belt with new teammates like Kyle Lowry and Buddy Hield. That said, if Philadelphia can avoid catastrophic injury, their offensive firepower far outstrips New York, and the defensive gap shouldn't be too wide with a fully engaged Embiid.

So, call it an upset, or call it bad luck for New York. But the Sixers are going to win this series.

Prediction: 76ers in 6

No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers

Giannis Antetokounmpo's availability for Game 1 is "very much up in the air," according to The Athletic's Shams Charania. Without Giannis, the Bucks — who are 17-19 since Doc Rivers' arrival — are lame ducks. Even with Giannis, there are concerns. The Pacers went 4-1 against Milwaukee in the regular season, including a couple proper blowouts. Giannis dominated those games individually, but Milwaukee's defense could not contain the Pacers' potent offense.

Tyrese Haliburton has been working toward this sort of opportunity all season. The Pacers play an up-tempo, egalitarian brand of basketball that should translate to the playoffs, even as defenses lock in. The Bucks have the edge in terms of experience. Damian Lillard is on the decline, but he's still Damian Lillard in a postseason setting. This is why the Bucks went out and traded for him.

It's a tough call, especially not knowing Giannis' injury outlook, but the Bucks are a complete mess under Doc. No "contender" has been more unreliable over the last few months. Cohesion and momentum are important in the playoffs, even if Milwaukee has the edge in talent. This could be another upset.

Prediction: Pacers in 6

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Orlando Magic

The NBA TV Special, as some are calling it. The Cavs have been a weird evaluation all season. On paper, Cleveland has all the tools for success — two dynamic on-ball engines, a dominant defensive backbone, and improved wing depth — but J.B. Bickerstaff was outclassed in the 2023 playoffs and Cleveland continues to look flimsier than your standard top-4 seed.

Orlando is a fresh face in the postseason picture. Virtually the entire Magic core is new to this stage. Joe Ingles and Gary Harris are around to impart some wisdom, but youth is a fickle friend in the playoffs. A team needs to be disciplined and connected. I'm not terribly convinced of Paolo Banchero as the No. 1 option on a postseason winner this season, but Orlando is a selfless group that plays hard and defends like a team possessed.

In terms of matchups, it's not hard to side with two 6-foot-10, playmaking wings and Orlando's vast collection of high-level role players. Cleveland's roster is a bit top-heavy, with a frontcourt that faltered last time we saw them on this stage. Donovan Mitchell is great, but can he alone carry Cleveland to the next round? I'm not sure.

Prediction: Magic in 6

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers

Oh boy.

Los Angeles has matched up extremely well with OKC this season. Anthony Davis has his way with the Thunder's slight frontcourt and it's impossible to ignore the disparity in experience. The Lakers have been around the block several times. The Thunder are postseason newcomers, one of the youngest teams in basketball. It's so rare for such a good team to be so young, and it makes it hard to operate with absolute confidence in OKC.

The Thunder have the better coach, the best player (in theory), and superior depth. OKC has legitimate playmaking chops at all five positions, plenty of shooters, and multiple high-leverage defenders up and down the roster. OKC should still win this series based on regular season performance and the collective quality of that team, but matchups are so important in the playoffs. Davis is going to feast, and LeBron losing to a bunch of 22-year-olds is not a common occurrence. We hardly ever see 1-8 upsets, but we did last season, and we could be in store for a similar doozy this season.

It's close. It's hard to say. But, I'm rolling with OKC by a hair.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7 New Orleans Pelicans

Pretty brutal matchup for the Pelicans. New Orleans has a ton of offensive firepower and Zion has a chance to really shine on this stage for the first time, but the Nuggets are in lockstep. That team is too poised and too connected. Denver is a code the Pelicans can't really hope to crack.

Maybe the Pelicans can steal a game behind some particularly dynamic offense, and Herb Jones' off-ball defensive activity could prove disruptive to Nikola Jokic's standard floor management. Even so, this is a Nuggets win all the way.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5

No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns

The West, again, is a total bloodbath. It's hard not to reward the Timberwolves for their incredible regular season with a bit of confidence. That was one of the best defenses in recent history, and Rudy Gobert is probably going to take home his fourth DPOY trophy as a result. Anthony Edwards is a dude, and the Wolves have the personnel to guard each member of Phoenix's vaunted 'Big 3.'

And yet, the Wolves are another top seed with a relative lack of postseason experience. The Suns are equipped with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, two established playoff assassins. Phoenix dominated Minnesota in all three regular season matchups, and the Wolves' size advantage could be rendered moot by Phoenix's floor spacing and tempo. Karl-Anthony Towns only recently got back from injury, now who is he going to guard? Kevin Durant?

Prediction: Suns in 6

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

Health is the biggest factor looming over this series, as the state of Kawhi Leonard's knee is very much in doubt. The Mavs enter the postseason with a ton of momentum and the best all-around roster of the Luka Doncic era. There's something to be said for having two elite isolation creators on this stage. Both Doncic and Kyrie Irving can buoy a stagnant offense.

The Clippers have plenty of star-power too, and I'm inclined to side with Ty Lue over Jason Kidd in the tactical battle. Kawhi has two rings; when he is healthy, few players are more challenging to game-plan for. Paul George and James Harden are great in theory, but Harden's recent decline is cause for concern ahead of the playoffs.

Just reading the landscape of the last few weeks and taking momentum into account, the Mavs feel like the pick here. This should be a great, great series, though.

Prediction: Mavericks in 6

NBA Playoffs: Predicting every second round series

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic ride some good karma (not throwing a winnable game to play matchups, like Cleveland) and their youthful spunk to the second round. And, with all due respect to Orlando, that is as far as their season will go. There is no chance Orlando wins this series, barring some truly catastrophic injuries to Boston. The Celtics are more experienced, more balanced, and better coached, with enough seasoned star-power to blind Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Prediction: Celtics in 4

No. 6 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

A tough matchup for the Pacers, who have never had much luck slowing down Joel Embiid. Philadelphia will similarly struggle to contain Tyrese Haliburton, which could transform this series into a bit of a shootout. While the Bucks are beat up and plagued by locker room turmoil, however, the Sixers are operating on the same wavelength with a great head coach.

Joel Embiid's health is, again, the determining factor here. Philadelphia has never been to the conference finals during Embiid's tenure for various reasons, but health is the one constant woe. We've never seen Embiid operating at close to 100 percent strength in the second round. Is this the year it happens? If so, the Sixers have a chance to finally break through.

Prediction: 76ers in 5

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

We can finally lay the Luka-Shai arguments to bed after this one. A seven-game series will surely settle all debate.

Well, not really. This would be appointment television, though. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are hard to bet against these days, and the Mavs improved their roster drastically at the trade deadline. As for OKC, depth and balance is a big check in their favor. OKC can win so many ways, at least offensively. Shai isn't the only high-wattage creator. Whereas Dallas can shift the burden onto Kyrie as needed, the Thunder can let Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren cook off the bounce. Josh Giddey is going to get played off the floor in these series, but Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Cason Wallace should all excel on the postseason stage.

OKC has Lu Dort, J-Dub, Shai, Wiggins, and Wallace to throw at Dallas' guards. Doncic and Irving are good enough to overcome excellent defense, but the sheer volume of different looks OKC can throw at them has to be a concern for the Mavs. So long as OKC can withstand the first-round pummeling from Anthony Davis, this is a team equipped to do the distance.

Prediction: Thunder in 7

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns

This is a different, definitely better Suns team, but we saw Denver handle this matchup well in the 2023 playoffs. Nikola Jokic is going to dance circles around Jusuf Nurkic, and Phoenix's depth — even with shortened rotations in the playoffs — is going to be a huge concern as the games stack up.

Denver has the personnel to guard Phoenix's offensive stars, at least well enough to get by, and we cannot overstate the value of Denver's connectedness. When the Nuggets flip the switch, that team is a truly well-oiled machine. Jokic's selflessness infects the rest of the roster, and Denver will simply out-execute teams under pressure as a result.

The Suns can't be counted out due to their immense firepower at the top, but Denver has the best player in the world and a beautifully contructed roster around him.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5

NBA Playoffs: Predicting the conference finals

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

This is the only way Philadelphia's magical Cinderella run can end. With bitter defeat at the hands of an old foe. The Celtics have been sending Joel Embiid home for years. It's an annual tradition at this point. While Philadelphia was close last season — and this is a better team across the board — Boston has improved too much to experience the same pitfalls. Joel Embiid can handle the Al Horford matchup, but how much gas will he have left in the tank? It's a fair question.

The Sixers should probably frighten the Celtics more than any other team in the East, but that is a testament to Boston's excellence. The Sixers have never truly scared Boston, and while Nick Nurse is an underrated change in the dynamics of this rivalry, the Celtics should win this without too much trouble.

Prediction: Celtics in 5

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets

A battle of titans in the West. OKC earned the No. 1 seed, but Denver was more or less able to coast to a similar record. Chet Holmgren is a tremendous defender and a top-notch rookie, but Nikola Jokic is going to steal his lunch money in this series. The experience gap will probably show up most here, against another well-coached team that seldom stumbles into careless mistakes.

The Nuggets have the matchup advantage with their best player, and they've been on this stage before. OKC getting to the conference finals with an average age below 25 would be a huge accomplishment, but generally teams don't shoot straight to the top. It takes time to scale the mountain. The Thunder won't win this series, but OKC can feel great about this outcome all the same.

Prediction: Nuggets in 6

NBA Playoffs: Predicting the NBA Finals

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets

This is the matchup a lot of us expected last season. Boston has been knocking on the door for a while and it's hard to deny the stone-cold evidence. The Celtics won 64 games, seven more than Denver. The Celtics were the best team in the NBA by a sizable margin, with one of the best one-through-six rosters we've seen in the last decade.

That said, Nikola Jokic presents a unique and formidable challenge for any team. Boston will try to stretch him outside the paint and make him work on defense, but Jokic's playmaking and the Nuggets' relentless execution will force Boston to operates at the peak of its powers. Any lull from the Celtics' stars, any sputtering from the bench or Joe Mazzulla, and the Nuggets will sieze the opportunity.

Too often, we fail to collectively discuss Jokic like the all-time great he is. We are watching one of the best players in NBA history. He should get the sort of respect LeBron and Steph once did; the "hard to pick against this guy" treatment. Boston is a great team, but so are the Nuggets, and Jokic is the most trustworthy star in the series. We could be in for an all-timer.

Prediction: Nuggets in 7