Predicting where the top 10 soon-to-be free agent starting pitchers will land

With only two months left in the season, it won't be long before MLB free agency comes along, and with it, rumors regarding who will be heading where.

This winter, a significant class of top-tier free-agent starting pitching is set to hit the market. Considering the number of teams looking for a postseason berth this year, it will be interesting to see how many teams will spend this winter. With that being said, it's time to predict where the top 10 starters will land in free agency,

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10. Sean Manaea

The New York Mets are one team to watch this winter because of the money they have freed up. The Mets have a staggering $95 million in salary coming off the books, and you know Steve Cohen will go right back all in. That money assumes Phil Maton's $6.5 million club option is not exercised and Sean Manaea opts out of his current deal, given the season he is having.

I can see the Mets bringing Manaea back into the fold to see in the back end of the rotation. This gives the club a solid starter they can obtain while they go after the bigger fish this winter. Expect a crazy offseason for the Mets' front office and lots of big names coming this way.

Prediction: New York Mets

9. Alex Cobb

Alex Cobb has missed all of 2024 until now but finally just came off the IL after several setbacks. Traded to the Cleveland Guardians at the deadline, Cobb's debut this season was unimpressive, allowing four earned runs over 4.2 frames and just one punchout. He scattered nine hits and gave up one walk in the process. Brought in to help provide a jolt to Cleveland's starting rotation, it's likely Cobb will walk into free agency, and a team like the St. Louis Cardinals makes a lot of sense.

St. Louis has brought in a few pitchers in recent years, hoping to squeeze out whatever upside they have left after an underperforming season. Names like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, among the top five in hits allowed, were brought into the Cardinals' rotation and have had much better seasons this year. Should Cobb not finish 2024 strong, look for them to follow suit, get him for a low price, and hope they fix something to get better production.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

8. Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer's 2024 has been riddled with injuries to this point. He's managed just 39.1 innings so far, but he has still been productive when healthy. He owns a 3.89 ERA to this point, but it is currently shelved again on the IL with a shoulder issue keeping him out longer than initially expected. Given that he is a free agent this season, it's unlikely Texas will bring him back into the mix if he comes back strong at the end of the year.

However, a team with their own pitching needs will try to swoop in on a one-year, higher AAV with a second-year club option type of deal. Boston is the team I keep circling back to, given that options aren't fantastic outside of Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. The team currently sits 6th in the AL in terms of starting rotation ERA, but again, Houck and Crawford are the reason why. Without those two, Boston's rotation falls to the middle of the pack at best, and you can envision them looking to bring in a veteran without getting locked into a long-term deal moving forward. Scherzer is a perfect candidate for that.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

7. Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler has missed most of 2024 with ailments that have derailed his season. Even in the minors on a rehab assignment, Buehler owns a 5.01 ERA in 34 innings at Triple-A. His 6.57 with the Dodgers this season was alarming, given that his career mark of 3.17 had always made him one of the better pitchers in baseball. Given his struggles this season, I believe Buehler will turn it around before the season ends and ultimately wind up signing a deal to return to L.A.

Their rotation of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and presumably Clayton Kershaw can only be further bolstered by a healthy Buehler, which then gives L.A. even more tradeable assets to strengthen other areas of need.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Max Fried

Given that Spencer Strider went down early, followed by the crucial blow of losing Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta is seeing its 2024 campaign quickly go down the tubes. The starting rotation has still been a strength, and with Strider returning next season, keeping another productive starter in Max Fried makes too much sense. You then have Strider, Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Fried, the way you wanted it to be this season. A healthy Atlanta squad gives the Phillies a run for their money for the AL East, and they will likely try to run it back next year.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

5. Justin Verlander

With Justin Verlander set to hit free agency this winter, I'm calling for The Houston Astros to bring him back to help stabilize their rotation. Houston's farm system is a barren wasteland; all they can do now to stay competitive is spend money in free agency. As long as Verlander remains effective, I see him finishing his career with the Astros and his next contract being his last. I also have the Astros bringing in Charlie Morton; I don't see Morton as a top-10 free-agent starter this winter, so he was omitted from this list. But expect Houston to spend with over $85 million guaranteed to come off the books at the end of this season.

Prediction: Houston Astros

4. Blake Snell

The reigning NL Cy Young winner from a season ago had many skeptical to pursue him in a long-term deal this past winter. Eventually signing a pillow contract with an opt-out after 2024, Snell got off to a slow start, compiling a 9.52 ERA through his first start in June before landing on the IL. Since coming back in early July, however, Snell has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. His past six starts have been spectacular, as he's recorded a 1.15 ERA over 39 IP, including his historic no-hitter on August 2nd.

If Snell continues at this pace, he will certainly exercise his opt-out, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't want to return to San Francisco on a better deal. After a great 2023 and now potentially ending 2024 extremely strong, it will silence a lot of doubt, and although it still won't land him a mega deal, he can likely find more guaranteed money in the form of two or three guaranteed years. Given that San Francisco will want to keep its rotation intact, it's easy to see why they would be the team to re-up with Snell, who hasn't changed his stance for wanting to play on the West Coast.

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

3. Shane Bieber

The Chicago Cubs will have enough money coming off the books this winter to spend on two relievers and a starting pitcher. They are not a team that likes to go over the luxury tax, and if it wasn't for their bullpen woes earlier in the year, they are likely in the thick of the Wild Card race at the very least at this juncture. The Cubs aren't as far away from contention as their record would indicate; they are 20-12 in their last 32 and currently just 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. Once healthy, adding a frontline starter in Shane Bieber will be the perfect compliment to pair with Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga. The Cubs were loosely connected last winter, but Cleveland opted to hold on.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

2. Jack Flaherty

At the MLB trade deadline, Baltimore whiffed by not bringing in Jack Flaherty to help bolster their rotation. Instead, they overspent on Trevor Rogers, who came in and immediately got shelled in his first outing as an Orioles. This winter, the Orioles front office will be more spend-happy, and they will right their wrongs and bring Flaherty in once he hits free agency this winter. With Corbin Burnes set to depart, the O's aren't getting very far if they don't build a strong rotation. Expect them to target starting pitching in free agency heavily.

Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

1. Corbin Burnes

The most coveted free agent starter this year will be Corbin Burnes, and the two finalists will be the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. As stated above, the Dodgers will bring back Buehler, and therefore, their rotation will be mostly set with Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Buehler in the top four spots. Consequently, they can avoid getting as aggressive as to fill out their rotation. The Dodgers, like the Mets, have over $90 million coming off the books this winter. Still, they will spend a considerable chunk of it to acquire Juan Soto while the Mets wind up with Burnes, who are much more desperate to land a top-tier starter to pair with Kodai Senga.

Prediction: New York Mets