Predicting when Drake Maye will make first start for New England Patriots

The New England Patriots landed Drake Maye with the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft. It's a great selection, even if New England's stark lack of quality pass-catchers will test Maye in the early going. The pressure is on Eliot Wolf and the front office to improve the roster around Maye, but in terms of pure talent, few recent QB prospects are better. The upside is through the roof.

It's unclear how quickly Maye will assume a position of power in the Patriots' depth chart, though. He is expected to begin training camp behind Jacoby Brissett, who signed on as New England's bridge QB early in the offseason. Head coach Jerod Mayo all but confirmed it to reporters.

"To go back to Bill [Belichick], I don't think many rookies are ready to just jump in and play. At the end of the day, our philosophy is, the best players will play... I would say we're going to compete all spring, we're going to compete during training camp, and the best player will start."

He keeps the door open for Maye to win the training camp battle, but the first line — that about most rookies requiring developmental time — signals where New England's head is at. Bill Belichick was never one to lean too heavily on youth, and Maye enters the NFL as a pup. He's 21 years old, with a rather inconsistent track record based on his performance at North Carolina. All the pieces are there for Maye, but it could take time to put them together.

That said, it's fair to wonder how soon (or late) Maye will actually take over the Patriots' offense.

Predicting when Drake Maye will take over Patriots starting QB job

We don't know the Patriots' official schedule yet, which makes this a tough cookie to crack. Generally, New England has... low expectations next season. Mayo is a first-time head coach without a ton of high-level experience. He's a direct disciple of Bill Belichick, who spent the last few years completely tanking New England's immediate and future outlook. He expressed a desire for Maye to be a "sponge," which sure sounds like an indication that Maye will start next season as an observer.

Brissett is a very good quarterback. Nothing special, but totally worthy of starting games on a bad team. A nice top-30ish QB in the league. The Patriots will probably follow a familiar pattern for highly touted rookie QBs. Brissett will start the season under center, New England will lose a bunch of games, then Maye will take over once there is no credible chance to contend.

The before-after odds should probably be placed somewhere in the middle of the regular season schedule. It ultimately depends on how ardently you believe in Maye's talent. He struggled with accuracy at UNC last season, but he puts a megawatt of power behind his throws and the athleticism at 6-foot-5 is tantalizing. The Patriots are a relatively young, unproven group with a need to coalesce and grow together over time. Once it's clear New England won't make the playoffs — probably early in the season — it shouldn't be too hard to turn the reins over to Maye.

Official prediction: Week 6. New England probably starts something like 1-4, realizes Brissett doesn't move the needle on his own, and lets Maye work through his growing pains the rest of the way.