Predicting when J.J. McCarthy will make first start for Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings traded up one spot, from No. 11 to No. 10, to select Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in the NFL Draft. It was probably the best-case scenario for both sides. McCarthy lands in a great environment with a competitive roster. The Vikings land a suitable developmental project without breaking the bank or mortgaging the future.

McCarthy was excellent in his junior campaign for the Wolverines, completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, and four interceptions. His experience is limited compared to other top prospects, but McCarthy captained Michigan to the national championship and, at 21 years old, the upside is undeniable.

My favorite descriptor for McCarthy is "toolsy." He threw 239 fewer passes in his college career than No. 3 pick Drake Maye at the same age. Michigan relied heavily on the run game and didn't require a ton of improvisation or bold down-field throws from McCarthy. And yet, at 6-foot-3, the arm talent and athleticism pops, and McCarthy was a big draw in pre-draft interviews. He has an aura that made NFL scouts latch on.

He could not have asked for a better NFL landing spot than Minnesota, but that doesn't necessarily mean McCarthy will be fast-tracked to the QB1 role. Kevin O'Connell has openly discussed his lack of enthusiasm for rookie quarterbacks in the past and Sam Darnold, who signed early in the offseason, currently projects as the Week 1 starter.

Predicting when J.J. McCarthy will take over Vikings starting QB job

Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah confirmed to ESPN that McCarthy's development is not an overnight job.

"We're not going to rush his development. We're just going to do what's best for the Vikings in the short and long term."

That is code for "Sam Darnold is our QB1." It's really that simple. Darnold's limited NFL success leaves the door open, but the 26-year-old is a former No. 3 pick with plenty of arm talent and developmental upside of his own. Darnold spent last season behind Brock Purdy in San Francisco, absorbing valuable insight from Kyle Shanahan and the Niners' impressive offensive staff.

He now joins a Vikings team with a similar offense that should be well-suited to his skill set. A large portion of QB success comes down to situation. Minnesota has an excellent offensive line, the best WR in football, a top-five tight end, and an elite play-caller at the helm. Oh, and Aaron Jones in the backfield. It's hard to imagine Darnold stinking it up too much under those circumstances.

The Vikings want to win games. Kirk Cousins' injury was a death sentence last season, but the competitive core remains largely intact. The primary position of change is quarterback, and Darnold has paid his dues to earn this opportunity.

O'Connell has been hard at work formulating a development plan for McCarthy, per ESPN. And, again, it just doesn't sound like there is any particular hurry to thrust McCarthy into the spotlight. He's a project with a long runway.

“The Vikings will follow an individualized development plan they created for each of the QBs they considered drafting, one that requires McCarthy to hit specific benchmarks and gives coach Kevin O'Connell full authority to make the timing decision.”

That last bit is all we need to know, frankly. O'Connell has full autonomy here. The front office won't force him to hand the job over to McCarthy prematurely. Unless the Vikings' season takes a serious downward turn, McCarthy could very well spend his entire rookie campaign on the bench. That's okay, too. Sometimes it's best for a quarterback to learn the ropes before he's asked to run the show. An aviator-in-training doesn't fly the plane on day one. He watches and learns. He does simulations. And then, after months of training, he gets airborne.

So, the official prediction for McCarthy's first NFL start is: Week 1... of next season. Darnold will get his year in the spotlight. From there, the Vikings will either negotiate his return as a backup, or let him walk to open the door for McCarthy in 2025.