Projected New York Mets rotation for NLDS vs. Phillies: Who will follow Kodai Senga?

The Mets rotation just got a major boost with Kodai Senga's return for the NLDS.
Jul 23, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Mets injured starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) works out in the bullpen at Yankee Stadium before a game against the New York Yankees. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Jul 23, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Mets injured starting pitcher Kodai Senga (34) works out in the bullpen at Yankee Stadium before a game against the New York Yankees. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images / Brad Penner-Imagn Images
facebooktwitterreddit

The good news just keeps on piling on for the red-hot New York Mets. Immediately following their dramatic season-saving victory against the Milwaukee Brewers, it was revealed that the team's ace, Kodai Senga, will take the ball against the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS opener. It's Senga's first start since late July, and couldn't have come at a better time.

How much length Senga can provide remains to be seen, but having the right-hander back even for a couple of innings would be a huge win for New York as they try to keep this fairytale season going by upsetting their NL East rivals in this best-of-five series.

We know Senga will start Game 1, but their rotation plans beyond that are mostly in flux. Here's how things project to line up as of this writing.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop between now and the MLB offseason.

Projected Mets NLDS rotation vs. Phillies

Name

Game

Kodai Senga

1

Luis Severino

2

Sean Manaea

3

Jose Quintana

4 (If Necessary)

Kodai Senga

5 (If Necessary)

All that can safely be confirmed now is that Senga is the team's Game 1 starter and that Luis Severino will follow in Game 2. The rest can be dictated based on the outcome of the first two games of the series.

Severino won't be available to pitch in relief in Game 1, neither will Quintana who just pitched on Thursday, but it's entirely possible that anyone else will be available. That includes Sean Manaea, New York's projected Game 3 starter, if needed.

Senga's return ensured that Tylor Megill, if he's used and on the roster, will almost certainly be coming out of the bullpen in this series, which is the optimal spot for the right-hander.

One starter notably omitted from this projected rotation is David Peterson. Not using Peterson out of the rotation in this series would be a curious decision considering the fact that he had a 2.90 ERA in 21 starts in the regular season, but there are several factors to consider.

First, Peterson just pitched in relief to close out the series in Milwaukee. He'll be available to pitch in Game 1, and could easily be Carlos Mendoza's choice to pitch behind Senga, assuming the right-hander can only go a couple of innings at most. Even if Peterson isn't used in relief in Game 1, he wouldn't be starting over Severino or Manaea anyway, so chances are, he'd be used in relief before his expected rotation turn would come up.

Second, Peterson's numbers against the Phillies leave a lot to be desired, particularly at Citizens Bank Park. Peterson did pitch extremely well in his only road start against the Phillies this season, but holds a career 4.60 ERA at that ballpark in six appearances (five starts), which is far from ideal. He has a career 4.98 ERA against the Phillies and struggled mightily against them the last time he saw them. Bryce Harper in particular has tormented him with eight hits in 19 at-bats (.421 average) including a home run.

Third, Jose Quintana just pitched a gem in the winner-take-all game against the Brewers, delivering six scoreless innings in the win. He didn't get the win in the box score, but without him holding the fort until the bats woke up, the Mets would likely be home right now.

Fourth, Peterson gives the Mets a reliable left-handed option coming out of the bullpen, which is something that they sorely lack. Harper has owned him, but Peterson has had great success against Kyle Schwarber.

For now, while Peterson deserves to get a start based on his regular season success, it feels more likely that he'll pitch in relief thanks to all of these factors. The Mets rotation doesn't have the same kind of star power as that of the Phillies, but with how they've pitched down the stretch and in October, there's every reason to believe that they can give this team a chance to win each and every day.

feed