Projecting the 2024 NBA offseason rookie scale extensions

Scottie Barnes and the Toronto Raptors officially kicked off the start of rookie scale extension season when they agreed to a deal worth up to their five-year and $270 million. While the contract cannot be finalized until July 6 when NBA free agency officially begins, teams are now allowed to negotiate with their own free agents and extension candidates following the conclusion of the NBA Finals. 

League rules have dramatically incentivized third-year players to re-up with their current franchise, and we could see a slew of extension agreements over the next 72 hours. Since the 2016 Draft class signed their rookie scale extensions in 2019, there have been 53 rookie scale extensions, for an average of 10.6 extensions per cycle. Contracts have ranged as high as $40 million per season and gone as low as $7 million, with the overwhelming majority being three, four, or five-year pacts. Three seasons into their NBA careers, the 2021 draft class is now up for extensions, but how much money will they earn? 

How I projected extensions

To project each eligible candidate, I took each rookie scale extension from between 2019 and 2023 and calculated what percentage of the cap their average salary paid them in the first year of their extension. Then, I determined what statistics correlated best to their compensation based on position. From there I used a forecast model to determine their expected percentage of the cap based on the five strongest statistical markers. And finally, I took those five forecasts and averaged them to get one projected percentage of the salary cap. Unsurprisingly, the best overall predictor was points per game in a player’s third season, so I’ll include that figure as well.

Each player's extension is presented as a percentage of the salary cap. A standard rookie scale max extension is 25 percent of the salary cap. I didn't include contract length, but generally speaking, the larger the deal, the more years. Not every player will land an extension, but chances are between 10 and 15 players will.

The Scottie Barnes test case 

Scottie Barnes' extension with the Toronto Raptors offers us a very good test case for the projections. His deal, worth up to $270 million over five years, is a standard rookie scale max extension, where his baseline pay will be 25 percent of the salary cap in his 2025-26. So what did the projections spit out for Barnes? 23.7 percent of the cap and 29.3 percent of the cap based on his points per game. In other words, it did a pretty good job. 

Scottie Barnes - projection average: 23.7% // PPG based projection: 29.3%

The projection average and points per game projection spit out the percentage of the salary cap their next contract should pay them. The projections aren’t universal and are positioned-based, so Scottie Barnes’s 19.9 points per game as a forward historically have led to earning a higher percentage of the salary cap than Jalen Green’s 19.6 points per game as a shooting guard. 

The Max candidates 

Trey Murphy III - projection average: 24.2% // PPG based projection: 19.9%

Unsurprisingly, a projection system loves a super efficient wing. Murphy has the highest average salary projection of any player from the 2021 draft class, but there’s a chance he won’t even get a max because of his lower points per game than usual. At the end of the day, the Pelicans really can’t go wrong with a Murphy extension, and if they can get him for less than the max, it’d be the extension of the summer. 

Evan Mobley - projection average: 24.1% // PPG based projection: 21.6%

I ran Mobley’s projections as a center and power forward and he did better as a power forward. If Mobley were on a worse team, he’d probably have better salary projections, but playing next to three All-Stars has a way of eating into your points per game. Of all the extensions, this one should be the easiest. Mobley has been highly productive over his short career while also playing out of position. That’s usually the sign of a star. 

Alperen Sengun - projection average: 22.6% // PPG based projection: 33.3%

If the Rockets hadn’t dragged their feet featuring Sengun early in his career, his overall average salary projection would be higher. Despite that, he does carry the highest points per game-based projection. Sengun should be an easy max extension. He’s been the best offensive player in this class and is one of the youngest. His defensive limitations may ultimately limit his upside, but precociousness remains the best indicator of stardom.  

Franz Wagner - projection average: 22.5% // PPG based projection: 28.9%

Franz Wagner had a disappointing season shooting the ball from three, but his salary projections remain excellent. While 22.5 percent isn’t 25 percent, it’s close enough that usually a max extension comes along. Wagner will need to shoot better from three to hit his ceiling, but this is a 6’10, 20-point per game scorer, who can handle the ball on the wing. 

Cade Cunningham - projection average: 22.4% // PPG based projection: 30% 

Cade Cunningham will almost certainly get a max extension. His career production and efficiency are a bit concerning, but point guards who score this much get paid. While Cunningham was the unquestioned first-overall pick in the 2021 draft, his NBA career hasn’t gone as smoothly. He looks like a good player, but his star has dimmed. 

…Maybe…?

Jalen Green - projection average: 21.9% // PPG based projection: 23.4%

Jalen Green has had a disappointing start to his career, but as a shooting guard, he has done the one thing that gets you paid– shoot. Points per game and usage had an almost one-to-one correlation to salary for shooting guards, but you can juice both of those figures, without being any good, by chucking shots. Green can definitely ask for a max, but I think the Rockets will balk at such a commitment. 

Well, this is strange

Cam Thomas - projection average: 22.8% // PPG based projection: 27.7%

Everything I said about Jalen Green applies to Cam Thomas, just on steroids. Thomas’ extension talks will be interesting. He really can score, which generally gets you paid, but he’s also not a good player because he’s bad at everything else. 

Close to a max, but not quite 

Jalen Johnson - projection average: 20.1% // PPG based projection: 22.1%

Jalen Johnson didn’t make much of an impact his first two seasons, but broke out in a big way in his third season, averaging 16 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. He’s one of the more exciting young power forwards and should command a deal just below a max extension. 

Jonathan Kuminga - projection average: 19.6% // PPG based projection: 22.3%

Kuminga was one of the youngest players in the league while trying to break into a Warriors side vying for titles. He finally got an extended run this season and showed the promise he flashed as a prospect. 

Josh Giddey - projection average: 18.4% // PPG based projection: 15.3%

The Bulls' trade for Josh Giddey was largely panned, but even with a down third season, he projects to land a significant deal. As long as the Bulls extend him to a reasonable number, like the ones above, it’ll have been a good trade. Remember, Giddey averaged 16.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game as a 20-year-old. 

Starter money

Santi Aldama - projection average: 16.2% // PPG based projection: 12.3%

The projections love Santi Aldama because advanced metrics love Santi Aldama. Of all the players in this group, I’d expect him to get the least. The Grizzlies have a way of developing excellent role players and then retaining them for cheap. We’ll see if they can keep getting away with it.

Corey Kispert - projection average: 15.2% // PPG based projection: 17.3%

The Wizards were a dumpster fire last season, but Corey Kispert has emerged as a solid starter or an elite bench piece for a playoff team. He can really shoot it and should have a long career earning close to 15 percent of the cap. In a league where the salary cap could hit $200 million in the next decade, that’s a great line of work to be in. 

Moses Moody - projection average: 15.6% // PPG based projection: 7.6%

If Moses Moody hadn’t been on the Warriors, his projections could look a lot different. While Moody’s volume and scoring stats suggest he won’t make much, his advanced metrics tell a different story. With Klay Thompson potentially leaving, the Warriors should lock him up on an extension before a playing time induced points per game boost makes him a more attractive unrestricted free agent. 

Jalen Suggs - projection average: 16.6% // PPG based projection: 13.1%

Jalen Suggs has emerged as one of the best defensive guards in the league, but unfortunately, defense-first guards don’t get paid. The Magic shouldn’t hesitate to lock him up at around 15 percent of the cap because he’ll likely provide more value than that. 

Role players 

Tre Mann - projection average: 14.1% // PPG based projection: 12.0%

Tre Mann projects as a solid backup point guard. He’s a player you like having, but not one where you do what it takes to keep. 

Bones Hyland - projection average: 13.9% // PPG based projection: 8.8%

The NBA’s coolest named player has the potential to be a sparkplug bench scorer and that’s about it. Bones Hyland will have a hard time carving out a large role as long he jacks shots with abandon and treats defense as optional. 

Day’Ron Sharpe - projection average: 13.6% // PPG based projection: 6.0%

Day’Ron Sharpe should have a long career as a bench big who absolutely dominates the boards. He’s a lot like present-day Andre Drummond.

Isaiah Jackson - projection average: 12.9% // PPG based projection: 5.5%

Isaiah Jackson is your classic energy bench big who the fans love but is generally a fungible piece. If the Pacers have the space, they’ll extend him; if they don’t, they won’t fret. 

Davion Mitchell - projection average: 12.3% // PPG based projection: 6.7%

Mitchell is a defense-first point guard without positional size. His role with the Kings has diminished each season, and there's a good chance he isn't in their future plans. Still, he's a solid player who can be a valuable bench piece in bursts.

Quentin Grimes - projection average: 10.1% // PPG based projection: 4.9%

Grimes had a horrible third season and it’s dragging down his projections. There’s a chance he gets more than this, but he’s only had one solid season out of three. He and the Pistons may just want to wait and see.

Bench depth 

Ziaire Williams - projection average: 8.3% // PPG based projection: 7.8%

Ziaire Williams showed some promise early in his career, but his development has stalled. If he wants future financial security, he can probably get it, but it won’t be much. 

Chris Duarte - projection average: 7.9% // PPG based projection: -0.2% 

Duarte is likely playing for his NBA future. He had a promising rookie season but has declined each subsequent year. He’s not young either, so no one is banking on a developmental bounceback.