Ranking 5 potential Rockets targets with No. 3 pick

The Houston Rockets own the Brooklyn Nets' pick in the 2024 NBA Draft due to the James Harden trade. In a cruel twist of the knife for Brooklyn, that pick jumped up from No. 9 to No. 3 in the lottery, leaving Houston with a juicy trade chip or, ideally, a productive young player on a team-friendly deal.

With Ime Udoka at the helm, Houston is not far off from contention — or at least fighting for a spot in the playoffs. There is still plenty to figure out with such a young group, but the Rockets have depth at every position, a bona fide All-Star talent in Alperen Sengun, and perhaps another late-blooming young star in Jalen Green.

How Sengun and Green coexist next season will be fascinating to monitor, as Green's late breakout in 2023-24 coincided with Sengun's season-ending injury. Meanwhile, the Rockets need to ramp up the touches for Cam Whitmore and Amen Thompson, who both look special. Thompson spent last season setting screens and catching lobs, but he's also an electric ball-handler capable of some mesmerizing live-dribble passes. Whitmore is a bullish slasher with the quickness and strength to overwhelm most defenders with a head of steam.

We can go on and on about the Rockets' many great prospects. Jabari Smith Jr. took a huge second-year leap. Tari Eason is a defensive pit bull. Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks are the oldheads, but both supply critical connective tissue for this team. The Rockets are a piece or two away from really starting to make noise. Or, perhaps more accurately, Houston is a developmental leap or two away.

That could mean the front office trades this pick for a veteran. Donovan Mitchell is on the radar in Houston, while several other intriguing targets, such as Trae Young, Darius Garland, or Brandon Ingram, could emerge during the course of the offseason.

But, if the Rockets decide to stay put and select a rookie, here are the five best (realistic) options, ranked.

5. Rockets can bet on talent with Nikola Topic

Fred VanVleet won't last forever, so there's logic behind installing a protege. Nikola Topic is 6-foot-6, but he's the quintessential point guard, able to penetrate the defense and create for teammates once the cracks are exposed. He's blessed with arguably the best first step in the draft, as well as a great knack for changing speeds and lulling his defender to sleep before slamming the gas pedal.

Topic's straight-line speed is a true outlier skill, not to mention his deep bag of tricks around the rim. He won't explode vertically, but Topic has the length and creativity to avoid rim protection and finish a variety of shots in the paint. His touch is off the charts — he's able to kiss the ball off the backboard and finesse layups from awkward angles.

The Rockets would need to worry about potential overlap with Amen Thompson, who is another rim-pressure guard without much of a jump shot. Topic's 3-point volume is limited, and he's especially hopeless off the dribble. That should change with time and practice — again, the touch is special — but right now, Topic is going to do the majority of his damage by getting two feet in the paint.

It's fair to wonder how such a hard-wired slasher will fit with Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green, too. Topic doesn't offer a ton of off-ball value and he's a weak defender. There are some uncomfortable edges to the fit in Houston.

And yet, talent wins out for most (smart) front offices. The Rockets land another tall playmaker with the potential to develop into a high-volume creator. Thompson is capable of operating in more of a connective forward role when called upon (the benefit of drafting super tall guards), and Sengun would benefit from Topic's heads-up passing off drives. It's clunky in spots, but there is totally a path to success for Topic in H-Town.

4. Ron Holland gives the Rockets another slashing wing

Frankly, there's a lot of overlap between Ron Holland and Cam Whitmore, and Whitmore is probably the better prospect. If the Rockets are disinclined to engage with Holland as a result, one can't really blame them. He just doesn't address an obvious need.

That said, the NBA is a wing's league, and 6-foot-7 wings that can defend, put pressure on the rim, and score in a varierty of ways tend to find avenues to success. Holland is a notoriously hard worker and a fiery competitor. His draft stock took a hit after a rough season with the G League Ignite, but he was a victim of shoddy team construction. The fact that Holland was able to showcase as much as he did without stable guard play or adequate spacing in a pro league is a mini-miracle, and it speaks to how talented the 19-year-old is.

The 3-point shooting Holland's swing skill. He needs to shoot more efficiently from long range, especially off the catch. NBA defenses are going to pack the paint and force Holland to beat them from distance. If he can't punish lax defense, he could struggle to come across minutes early in his career. The Rockets are a deep and competitive team. Holland won't get a long runway just because he's the No. 3 pick.

That said, Holland is a voracious slasher. He attacks open space, puts pressure on the rim, and shows promise as a pull-up shooter around the elbow. As Holland gets better at mixing speeds and tightening his handle, the creation ability should follow. He's not a savant passer, but Holland reads the floor well enough and fires some impressive dimes on the move. Most of his turnover woes are tied to a loose dribble or driving headlong into traffic without a game plan. If Holland can improve his decision-making, the game will open up for him.

Equipped with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, Holland should be comfortable guarding at least 1-3 most nights. He's going to switch screens on the perimeter, handle tough assignments, and muck up passing lanes. Houston is blessed with several high-level defenders, so Holland would be able to concentrate his energy on winnable matchups in the early going. When he does force a turnover or inhale a rebound, Holland instantly becomes a deadly transition threat. His speed and strength in the open court is a potent combination.

The Rockets don't need Holland, again, but he's too good to overlook.

3. Rockets could pair Alex Sarr with Alperen Sengun in frontcourt

There's a good chance Alex Sarr is off the board at No. 1 or 2, but if he falls to Houston, of course the Rockets will seriously consider him. Houston should stick with Sengun as the full-time center — it's not time to rock the boat based on one month of Jalen Green buckets — but Sarr offers an alternative if the Rockets decide to alter the makeup of their roster down the line.

In the meantime, Sarr can probably share the floor with Sengun. Spacing is a potential issue, but Sarr is plenty confident launching 3s off the catch. He was a regular participant in pick-and-pop actions for Perth in Australia's NBL, and he has the ball-handling coordination to attack closeouts and score on straight-line drives. Sengun, meanwhile, has shooting touch of his own.

The root appeal with Sarr is defense. He's an absurdly gifted athlete, listed at seven feet in shoes with a 7-foot-4 wingspan. He's a proper five-position defender, with the length to protect the rim in drop coverage and guard centers, as well as the lateral speed to hang with guards on an island. The Rockets will plant Sengun in the paint, so Sarr can roam the perimeter, muck up passing lanes, and provide shot-blocking on the weak side.

How Sarr progresses offensively will determine his success in Houston. The Rockets already have plenty of length and help-side shot-blocking from Smith and Eason, so that's not a pressing need. Sengun is a legit staple at the five spot. There are corners of the Rockets fandom that wavered after the injury, but 7-footers with Sengun's blend of strength, touch, and passing vision are difficult to come by.

Sarr makes some eye-popping highlights spinning into mid-range jumpers and whirling around defenders for difficult finishes inside, but he also shies away from physicality and sets weak screens. If the 3s don't fall at a prodigious rate, it's fair to wonder how much value Sarr can actually offer on offense as a rookie.

Upside and raw talent are the big selling points with Sarr, who offers outlier physical gifts in a weak draft class. The Rockets can operate patiently due to their roster, allowing Sarr to develop at his own speed. He might not be the most impactful option as a rookie, but he gives Houston a lottery ticket for the future.

2. Rockets can opt for immediate contributions from Reed Sheppard

The Rockets are probably the best landing spot for Reed Sheppard. He is small, listed a shade under 6-foot-2 without shoes, but he also posted one of the highest vertical leaps at the Combine. More importantly, Sheppard was the best freshman in college basketball, putting together a historic offensive campaign as John Calipari's super-sixth man at Kentucky.

Sheppard hit 52.1 percent of his 3s for an entire season, offering one elite and immediately translatable NBA skill. He is going to snipe open looks from deep and stretch defenses thin, demanding constant attention beyond the arc. In addition to the spot-up shooting, Sheppard flashed real on-ball juice. He beat closeouts, ran the occasional pick-and-roll, and made several advanced passing reads off a live dribble.

It's hard to endorse 6-foot-2 guards that don't profile as lead ball-handlers. Size is so important in today's game and off-guards generally need to defend taller wings. But, Sheppard is an outlier shooter with a viable path to point guard utility. He processes the game at a high level, makes quick decisions in the flow of the offense, and has the shooter's touch to develop into a dangerous pull-up threat.

Kentucky limited Sheppard's on-ball reps, especially early in the season, but Houston is in the rare position to focus almost entirely on Sheppard's strengths. VanVleet is a great table-setter, Thompson and Green can pressure the rim, and Sengun is a savant passer in the post. Sheppard can come along slowly as a "point guard" while contributing immediately with his shooting, decision-making, and defense.

Sheppard isn't going to stop the ball very well at the next level, but he's a brilliant team defender whose head is always on a swivel. His ability to invade passing lanes and create events with sheer effort is borderline unmatched in the lottery range, despite his size and athletic limitations. Houston can surround Shepped with plenty of length, so it's a great environment for him on both ends.

1. Rob Dillingham could take the Rockets' offense to the next level

How about another small Kentucky guard to round things out. This might be the best landing spot for Rob Dillingham — frankly, several upper-lotto prospects should want to land in Houston — and it feels distinctly possible provided the Rockets' unique focus on win-now talent, rather than building for the future.

Dillingham measured 6-foot-1 without shoes and 164 pounds at the Combine. That number is going to rightfully scare a lot of teams. Trae Young is the obvious point of comparison physically, but Young's outlier passing and deep 3-point range made him special. Dillingham is a ridiculous shot-maker with a versatile skill set and a sharp basketball mind, but he's not on Young's level as a prospect.

The defense is a major concern, but as is the case with his aforementioned teammate, Dilly would be well-insulated in the Rockets' backcourt. Thompson, Brooks, Smith, and Eason are going to plug a lot of holes and clean up messes. On the other end, Dillingham offers the widest range of immediate possible outcomes for Houston. He is the most well-rounded offensive guard on the board.

In addition to elite 3-point shooting — both spotting up and pulling up — Dillingham has the quickness and twitchiness to roast defenders off the bounce. He expertly mixes speeds with a live dribble and regularly dusts his man with a killer first step. There will be lingering questions about Dillingham's ability to finish at the rim against NBA length and physicality, but his touch and creativity around the basket are easy to bet on.

Dillingham should have no trouble coming into scoring opportunities, likely deployed as the Rockets' spark-plug sixth man out of the gate. Where he made unexpected progress at Kentucky is as a passer. Dillingham was known as a bit of a shot-chucker in Overtime Elite, but he emerged as a bona fide point guard option for the Wildcats. He can still get a bit sloppy, but Dillingham makes advanced reads and puts plenty of zip on his passes. With time and patience, he could develop into the logical VanVleet successor for Houston.

There isn't a prospect who offers more to the Rockets from day one than Dillingham, and there's plenty of upside tied to his skill level and shot-making. Small guards are an inherently risky bet these days, but Dillingham has all the necessary talent and the confidence to back it up.