Ranking every NBA team by their first-half over/under-performance
The NBA is full of surprises. Before the season, no one expected Draymond Green to put Rudy Gobert in a headlock and then punch Jusuf Nurkic in the face in the span of a month. While he’d be the first overall pick if you had to guess which player would, the odds of either of those events occurring were preposterously small.
However, the soap opera known as the NBA is also chocked full of actual basketball-related surprises. No supercomputer or non-biased prognosticator could have predicted that the Timberwolves and Thunder would be at the top of the Western Conference, and one of the best gauges of a team’s talent level are preseason over/unders.
Due to the nature of the industry, gambling markets are incredibly accurate at predicting how good teams will be in any given season. Preseason over/under win totals aren’t prescient, but when you can lose millions of dollars if you’re over/under model is off by the slightest degree, you make sure that model is reliable, or you go bankrupt.
Determining who has bested their preseason projections the most and least
To determine which teams have over or underperformed their preseason projections the most, I took every team’s preseason over/under, their current total wins, and their expected wins based on point differential. From there, I found their current 82-game win pace based on wins and expected win pace. I then averaged the two numbers for their projected full-season win total and compared that figure to their preseason over/under for wins and ranked accordingly.
(Win pace + Expected win pace) / 2
Even if a team is beating their expected wins, they’ve still banked those wins, but their point differential is still probably a better predictor of future performance. By blending those two figures, you reward teams for how they’ve played, how they project to play, and their ability to eke out close games. These are all 30 teams ranked by how they’ve over or underperformed their preseason expectations.
Note: Records and expected records are as of January 29th
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Preseason Over/Under: 44.5 Wins // Current pace: 57.9 // +13.4 Wins
The youngest team in the NBA is also the one most outperforming its preseason expected win pace. The Thunder are 32-14 with an expected win-loss of 33-13. In about 50 percent of the season, the Thunder have bagged 72 percent of their preseason expectation of 44.5 wins. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the All-NBA first team last season, but few expected Chet Holmgren to be an All-Star caliber player as a rookie and for Jalen Williams to make a borderline All-Star leap in year two.
No one is sleeping on the Thunder now. They’re talented, deep, and young. They look poised to be a 55-win team for the next half-decade at least, and this will be the final season the Thunder blow by their over/under by such a gigantic margin.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
Preseason Over/Under: 44.5 // Current pace: 56.2 // +11.7 Wins
On paper, the Timberwolves outpacing their preseason over/under shouldn’t be too surprising. They have two All-NBA big men, Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, a rising young star, Anthony Edwards, and a steady former All-Star at point guard, Mike Conley. The Wolves top four players are excellent, and they’re supported by Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, and Naz Reid. By sheer talent, the Timberwolves being a better than 45-win team feels patently obvious.
However, after a disastrous 2022-23 season, there were real questions if Gobert and Towns could play together. And if Edwards was ready to be their unquestioned first option. Well, the Wolves are 32-14, with an expected win-loss of 31-15, and on pace for 56.2 wins. Sometimes talent doesn't fit, but usually, talent wins out and wins big.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
Preseason Over/Under: 45.5 // Current pace: 55.9 // Wins +10.4
James Harden made enough preseason noise about his desire to be traded to the Clippers that projecting them as a 45.5-win team feels like a direct shot at the man known as “the beard.” Or, maybe Kawhi Leonard was coming off another knee surgery, and he and Paul George haven’t exactly been a model of health. Whatever the reasoning for the Clippers solidly unspectacular over/under was, they’ve completely blown by it.
The Clippers are 30-14, with an expected win-loss to match, and have been even better than that since they figured out how to integrate Harden into the fold after a hellacious six-game trial period. Unlike the Thunder and Wolves, there’s real meat on the bones for the Clippers to blow further past their preseason over/under. As long as Kawhi, George, and Harden stay relatively healthy, the Clippers have a legitimate shot at hitting 60 wins.
4. Houston Rockets
Preseason Over/Under: 31.5 // Current pace: 41 // +9.5 Wins
Now that we’ve gotten three-fourths of the top of the Western Conference out of the way, let’s take a look at a team that is surprisingly fighting for a play-in spot. The Rockets won 22 games last season, which makes their preseason over/under of 31.5 pretty optimistic. It’s clear their offseason additions of Ime Udoka on the sideline and Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks in the starting lineup to supplement an up-and-coming roster made them a good bet to improve dramatically.
However, the Rockets are on pace to win 19 more games than they did last season and 9.5 more than their preseason over/under foretold. VanVleet and Brooks have come in and done exactly as expected, adding defense and organization to one of the league’s most discombobulated teams. If Brooks and VanVleet are responsible for the nine-and-half wins Vegas projected, then the ascent of Alperen Sengun should count for the other nine-and-half. The young Turk has a strong All-Star case and gives the franchise the future star they thought they drafted in 2021 when they selected Jalen Green second overall.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
Preseason Over/Under: 47.5 // Current pace: 55.9 // +8.4 Wins
The Sixers’ lukewarm preseason over/under can be explained pretty simply. James Harden, their second-best player, had called their lead executive, Daryl Morey, “a liar,” on multiple continents. Throw in a new head coach in Nick Nurse, a massive role expansion for Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid being fake traded to the Knicks ad nauseam, and you start to see a team with enough chaos that you forget Embiid is one of the three best players on the planet.
Harden was eventually traded, and the Sixers kept rolling sevens at the craps table, as Nurse proved to be a significant upgrade at head coach, Maxey was more than capable of filling in for Harden, and Embiid decided to morph into death, destroyer of worlds. The Sixers are 29-15, with an expected win-loss of 31-13, and should finish no worse than third in the Eastern Conference.
6. New York Knicks
Preseason Over/Under: 45.5 // Current pace: 53.5 // +8.0 Wins
I like to imagine Tom Thibodeau looking at the Knicks preseason over/under, crumpling it up, setting it ablaze, and then using it to light a comically large cigar. While Thibodeau may not like being a caricature of himself, the Knicks, under his watch, have made a habit of burning their preseason expectations, and this season is no different.
A big boost to the Knicks this season has been Jalen Brunson proving that last season wasn’t a career year but was rather him establishing a new level. With Brunson firmly established as a top-25 player, the Knicks’ combination of depth and grit has carried them to a 29-17 record and an expected win-loss of 31-15. Since they acquired OG Anunoby in a midseason trade, they’ve gone 12-2 with a net rating of plus-15.8. The Knicks are excellent and should make a real run at 55 wins.
7. Boston Celtics
Preseason Over/Under: 54.5 // Current pace: 62.4 // +7.9 Wins
What a charmed life Celtics fans must live. They entered the season with the highest over/under for wins at 54.5 and are now on pace to beat that projection by 7.9 wins. Their league-best 35-11 record is a dead ringer for their expected win-loss total, and they’re currently the only team on pace to hit 60 wins. It is a tired narrative, but it’s true for these Celtics. Anything short of a championship has to be viewed as a disappointment.
The Celtics had the best underlying metrics in the regular season last season, but the additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday have taken them a step higher. Their plus-9.7 net rating is on pace to be the best full-season mark since the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors. Even with a second-half lull, the Celtics should coast to the best record in the league and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
8. Indiana Pacers
Preseason Over/Under: 38.5 // Current pace: 46.2 // +7.7 Wins
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the breakout surprises of the season. If it wasn’t for the Thunder and, to a lesser degree, the Timberwolves, the Pacers breakout would have been championed much louder by the national media.
Guided by Tyrses Haliburton, the Pacers have led the league in offensive rating for almost the entire season. They’re 27-20, with an expected win-loss of 26-21, and that doesn’t even count their success in the In-Season Tournament. While Haliburton was out with a gnarly hamstring strain, the Pacers picked up Pascal Siakam and have gone 3-3 since his debut. Haliburton should be back soon, and we’ll get to see if they can’t make a push for 50 wins.
9. Orlando Magic
Preseason Over/Under: 37.5 // Current pace: 42.8 // +5.3 Wins
If we did this exercise on Dec. 1 when the Magic were 14-5, they’d be far and away in first place. However, the Magic weren’t a true talent 60-win team and have come back to Earth in the weeks since, sitting at 24-22 with an expected win-loss to match. The Magic’s in-season arrow isn’t pointing up, but they’ve weathered a rash of injuries and should be healthier down the stretch.
The incredible start to the season has colored the last quarter negatively, but this is still a team that won 34 games last season and is on track to win 42 games and best their preseason over/under by five games. The Magic haven’t won 42 games since 2018-19, and that was the first time they had hit 40 wins since 2010-11. Remember, this is a young up-and-coming team who are still beating expectations.
10. Utah Jazz
Preseason Over/Under: 35.5 // Current pace: 40.1 // +4.6 Wins
The Utah Jazz have been the anti-Magic. After starting the season 7-16, they’ve raced to a 17-7 record since Dec. 13 and sit at 24-23 with an expected win-loss of 22-25. They’re currently on pace to hit 40.1 wins, which would be a plus-4.6 improvement on their preseason over/under of 35.5 wins.
The Jazz are hard to pin down as a team. They were miserable to start the season but have found the right recipe to make a team with no true point guard work. They’re also barely .500 with a negative net rating. As much fun as their recent run has been, the ever-pragmatic Danny Ainge could always sell off a few players and end this fairy tale with an all too realistic ending.
11. New Orleans Pelicans
Preseason Over/Under: 44.5 // Current pace: 48.1 // +3.6 Wins
The Pelicans beating their preseason over/under was always in the cards, but so was going far and away under. The biggest obstacle to projecting the Pelicans over the past few seasons has been health, and 44.5 wins is a hedge against another rash of injuries or a mostly healthy season. Their big three (if you want to call it that) of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and C.J. McCollum have played 420 minutes this season. In the season and a half prior, the trio had played a total of 172 minutes.
Considering the relative health the Pelicans have experienced, their on-court production hasn’t been mind-blowing, but it shows just how good this team really is if they can just stay healthy. The biggest concern for them going forward is that Williamson, while healthy, hasn’t been nearly as effective as in seasons prior. If this is his new level, the Pelicans will be a good team but ultimately not dangerous in the playoffs.
12. Sacramento Kings
Preseason Over/Under: 44.5 // Current pace: 45.7 // +1.2 Wins
The Sacramento Kings, after ending a 16-year playoff drought, probably feel like they’re having a bit of a down year but are right in line with their preseason expectations. Projected for 44.5 wins, the Kings are on pace to win 45.7 games, only two fewer than their 48 victories last season.
The Kings largely brought back their 2022-23 team and, shockingly, are performing at a similar clip. However, the Kings’ 26-18 record far outpaces their 23-21 expected record, but that’s more a function of the Western Conference being far stronger this season. The Nuggets won the West last season with 53 wins, but three teams, not including the Nuggets, are on pace to eclipse it. The Kings stood pat, and instead of being the three seed, they’ll have to fight to avoid the play-in.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers
Preseason Over/Under: 50.5 // Current pace: 51.5 // +1 Wins
The Cavaliers being on pace to beat their 50.5 preseason over/under by any margin is incredibly impressive. Last season, the Cavaliers won 51 games and had the league’s second-best net rating at plus-5.5, but they got 79 games from Evan Mobley, 69 from Darius Garland, and 68 from Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen.
Unfortunately, this season, they’ve been bitten by the injury bug. Through 43 games, Mobley is at 21 games played, Garland 20, Mitchell 34, and Allen 38. The Mitchell and Allen pairing has been lethal and kept the team afloat, but if you told the Cavaliers’ front office Mobley and Garland would miss a quarter of the season, and they’d still be on pace to win 50 games, they’d be ecstatic.
14. Milwaukee Bucks
Preseason Over/Under: 53.5 // Current pace: 54.4 // +0.9 Wins
The Bucks made waves when they relieved head coach Adrian Griffin of his duties after a 31-13 start, but while their current 32-14 record is sterling, they have an expected win-loss total of 29-17, while facing an easy slate of opponents. Still, the Bucks’ pace of 54.4 wins is right in line with their preseason over/under of 53.5.
When teams are in championship or bust mode, simply hitting your preseason expectations is not enough. The Bucks likely viewed their team as being closer to a 60-win team than Vegas did, but if it’s true that the house always wins, maybe the odds makers were onto something.
15. Denver Nuggets
Preseason Over/Under: 52.5 // Current pace: 53.2 // +0.7 Wins
The reigning champion Denver Nuggets were pegged to win 52.5 games and are on pace to win 53.2 this season. While that win total isn’t incredible for a defending champion, the Nuggets are built better for the playoffs than the regular season.
All of the Nuggets starters have on-off net ratings of at least plus-6.0, with Nikola Jokic leading the team at plus-18.3. In the regular season, the Nuggets aren’t going to ride their starters to push for 60 wins, but come the playoffs, they can ramp up the unit’s minutes and go from a good team to a great team.
16. Chicago Bulls
Preseason Over/Under: 37.5 // Current pace: 37.5 // +0 Wins
The Chicago Bulls are the only team to be exactly on pace for their preseason over/under, but since teams can’t record a half victory, it’s anyone’s guess if they’ll hit the over or under. They’re 22-25 on the season with an expected win-loss of 21-26.
The Bulls have let it be known they’re willing to move Zach LaVine, but they haven’t postured as if they’ll trade anyone else. For a veteran team stuck in the middle, that’s a mistake, but it seems like they’re dead set on being as close to their 37.5 preseason win projection as possible.
17. Dallas Mavericks
Preseason Over/Under: 43.5 // Current pace: 42.8 // -0.7 Wins
The Dallas Mavericks are 25-21, but their expected win-loss of 23-23 drags down their win pace a tad. The Mavericks, even with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, were expected to be just marginally better than .500 with a preseason over/under of 43.5, and that’s exactly how they’ve performed.
Equipped with the ninth-ranked offense, the Mavericks have room to improve if they can figure out how to drag their defense out of 23rd. This is the second consecutive season the Mavericks have been exceedingly mediocre despite employing Luka Doncic. If things don’t change soon, a Luka Doncic trade request could be coming.
18. Brooklyn Nets
Preseason Over/Under: 37.5 // Current pace: 34.6 // -2.9 Wins
18 teams in, and we’re just now getting to legitimately disappointing teams if preseason over/unders are to be taken seriously. The Nets were projected for 37.5 wins, but their current 18-27 record and expected win-loss of 20-25 has them on pace to fall 2.9 wins short at 34.6.
The Nets actually had a very promising start to the season, going 12-9 over their first 21 games, but have been absolutely brutal since, posting a 6-18 record. If they can’t regain some of their early season form, they could blow by the under in a hurry, but chances are they’ll stabilize as just a regular bad team.
19. Miami Heat
Preseason Over/Under: 44.5 // Current pace: 40.1 // -4.4 Wins
Apparently, Heat culture doesn’t work in the regular season. 44.5 wins is not a tall ask for a defending Eastern Conference champion, but the Heat are on pace to win just 40.1 games. Even more concerning is the Heat’s 24-22 record far exceeds their 21-25 expected win-loss.
The Heat aren’t miserably bad, but they’ve played like a team that should hover just below .500. The addition of Terry Rozier, who has had an excellent season, should help their 21st-ranked offense, but he won’t help their 14th-ranked defense. The Heat look like a play-in team right now, which worked out great for them last season.
20. Toronto Raptors
Preseason Over/Under: 36.5 // Current pace: 32.1 // -4.4 Wins
The Raptors are entering the first stages of a much-needed remodeling. They traded OG Anunoby to the Knicks and then sent Pascal Siakam to the Pacers for picks and players. With both of them in town, they were pegged for 36.5 wins but are on pace to go under that figure by 4.4 with 32.1 wins.
The Raptors owe a pick to the San Antonio Spurs this season, but they appear to have no intention of intentionally tanking. Yes, they trade two of their best players, but Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are starting-caliber NBA players, so the bottom shouldn’t fall out.
21. Washington Wizards
Preseason Over/Under: 23.5 // Current pace: 18.2 // -5.3 Wins
It’s not a good sign if you’re projected for the fewest wins in the league, and you’re underperforming even those expectations. The Wizards entered the season with an over/under of 23.5 and are on pace to win 18.2 games. A big reason they’ve fallen so short is their 8-37 record is far worse than their expected win-loss of 12-33.
The Wizards will likely trade Tyus Jones, and other veterans should follow. In the first year of a rebuild, the current talent on the roster hasn’t yet been converted into future assets, which means the Wizards could tumble even farther down from their already pitiful win pace.
22. Portland Trail Blazers
Preseason Over/Under: 27.5 // Current pace: 21.4 // -6.1 Wins
No one expected the Portland Trail Blazers to fight for the play-in in 2023-24, but their current win pace of 21.4 is a far cry from their over/under of 27.5. Injuries and lineup decisions have really cost the Blazers this season. Anfernee Simons tore the UCL in his thumb and missed a chunk of time, Robert Williams III suffered another knee injury and is out for the year, and Scoot Henderson has been overwhelmed in his rookie season.
When a team is rebuilding, it behooves them to hit the under, but the Blazers, if they wanted to, could probably be closer to their preseason over/under than they currently are. Until Malcolm Brogdon is traded, the Blazers won't be an automatic victory, but it shouldn’t be too long before he’s moved.
23. Phoenix Suns
Preseason Over/Under: 52.5 // Current pace: 46.3 // -6.2 Wins
The Phoenix Suns preseason over/under of 52.5 was tied with the Denver Nuggets for the second-highest total, making them the de facto co-title favorite in the West. Needless to say, things haven’t gone according to plan. Bradley Beal missed most of the first quarter of the season, and as a result, the Suns sit at 26-20 with a matching expected win-loss and are only on pace for 46.3 wins.
Since Beal returned on Dec. 29, the Suns are 12-5 with a net rating of plus-5.2. That’s solid, but still not all impressive for a team supposedly built to challenge for a championship. The Suns, barring injury, should slowly up their win pace, but they have a ton of ground to cover if they want to beat their preseason over/under, and snagging a top-four seed already looks out of the picture.
24. Los Angeles Lakers
Preseason Over/Under: 46.5 // Current pace: 40.1 // -6.4 Wins
Is it persistent Lakers' exceptionalism or optimism that dooms them to underperform their preseason expectations? The Lakers were pegged to win 46.5 games after bringing back a team that won 43 games, and their big offseason additions were Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, Taurean Prince, and Cam Reddish.
While the 2022-23 Lakers did finish the season on an 18-8 tear after trading Russell Westbrook on Feb. 9, they had a good bit of 3-point fortune fueling their sudden rise. They had a 117.2 offensive rating and 112.3 defensive rating over that span, but their opponents only hit 33.8 percent of their threes, and they saw their 3-point shooting improve to 36.1 percent, up from 33.9 percent. Maybe you could trick yourself into believing that the offense was for real, but the defense was clearly bound to regress.
Still, the Lakers being on pace for 40.1 wins when Anthony Davis and LeBron James have been healthy and highly effective is a shock. What has undone excellent seasons from the Lakers’ top two is a poor roster around them, and Darvin Ham hasn’t exactly made lemonade out of lemons unless we’re talking about Panera. A year later, Rob Pelinka needs another mid-season trade to save another ill-fitting roster that he built.
25. Atlanta Hawks
Preseason Over/Under: 42.5 // Current pace: 33.9 // -8.6 Wins
When you fancy yourself as a playoff contender, you don’t want to be on pace to win 8.6 fewer games than a preseason projection that sees you as barely above .500. With a current win pace of 33.9 and an over/under of 42.5, the Hawks have been inexplicably the most disappointing team in the league.
Most teams in their situation would have an injury to point to, but all the Hawks can do is point at themselves. Trae Young used to guarantee a top-ten offense, but they only rank 12th this season. Still, it’s good to know that Young hasn’t lost his ability to guarantee a bottom-five defense, as they currently rank 29th in defensive rating. The Hawks need an overhaul, and they know it. However, trading Dejounte Murray won’t see them suddenly become a good team, even if it allows them to build a better-fitting roster in the seasons ahead.
26. San Antonio Spurs
Preseason Over/Under: 28.5 // Current pace: 19.6 // -8.9 Wins
The Spurs worked fast and furiously to make sure they hit the under on their 28.5 preseason win projection. They started the season with Victor Wembanyama at power forward and decided running Jeremy Sochan at point guard was a good idea. While I like both moves for developmental and experimentation purposes, it was always going to be painful basketball to watch.
Since moving Wembanyama to center on December 8th, the Spurs have gone 7-20, which is still only a 21-win pace but is significantly better than their 12-win pace beforehand. The good news for the Spurs is that Wembanyama is the generational prospect he was purported to be. He’s already an All-Defensive team quality center, and his offensive game is far better than his efficiency suggests.
27. Golden State Warriors
Preseason Over/Under: 47.5 // Current pace: 38.1 // -9.4 Wins
The Warriors have to be considered the most disappointing team of 2023-24. Their 47.5 preseason over/under was tied for the sixth-highest win total, but they’re currently 12th in the Western Conference at 19-24, although their expected win-loss of 21-22 is a bit kinder.
Why have the Warriors fallen on hard times? For starters, Draymond Green has missed massive chunks of the season due to suspension, Andrew Wiggins went from an integral role player to maybe the least valuable player in the league, Klay Thompson is clearly in decline, Chris Paul suffered another hand injury, and Stephen Curry, while still excellent, is showing his 35 years of age.
Everything that could go wrong, outside of a Curry injury, has gone wrong for the Warriors. Their 47.5 over/under was a backward-looking projection, as old teams have more downside than upside. From two timelines to light years ahead, all of the Warriors’ self-proclaimed exceptionalism has come crashing down at the hands of the endlessly churning and brutal wheel of time.
28. Detroit Pistons
Preseason Over/Under: 27.5 // Current pace: 15.2 // -12.3 Wins
The Pistons’ 6-40 record is far worse than their expected win-loss of 11-35, but their expected win pace still has them under 20 wins. The primary storyline for the Pistons this season was their 28-game losing streak, but even if you remove that from their record, they’d still only be on pace to win 27.3 games.
It has been a season to forget for the Pistons, and a major front-office shakeup should be coming. They entered the season with an ill-fitting roster that has given their young players the worst confines in the league to grow. Everyone not named Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Marcus Sasser, and Ausar Thompson should be available, but with how this front office has operated, don’t count on a selloff.
29. Charlotte Hornets
Preseason Over/Under: 31.5 // Current pace: 17.7 // -13.8 Wins
The Hornets have had their fair share of injury misfortune as LaMelo Ball has only played in 22 games, but they’re 7-15 in games he has started. Overall, the Hornets are 10-34 with an expected win-loss of 9-35, and they just traded away Terry Rozier, who has been excellent this season.
With the reign of Michael Jordan coming to an end, the Hornets will hopefully assemble a modern front office and actually build a functional team. The bones of a 31.5-win team are in place in Charlotte. Ball, when healthy, is a good place to start, Brandon Miller has been solid as a rookie, and Mark Williams projects as a solid starting center. The future isn’t bright per se, but it’s not nearly as dark as it looks right now.
30. Memphis Grizzlies
Preseason Over/Under: 45.5 // Current pace: 30.3 // -15.2 Wins
The most disappointing team of the first half of the 2023-24 season is none other than the Memphis Grizzlies. Even with a 25-game suspension to start the season for Ja Morant built in, Vegas projected the Grizzlies to hit 45.5 wins. Unfortunately, Steven Adams needed season-ending knee surgery, absolutely neutering their offensive rebounding, Morant lasted all of nine games before being shut down for the season with a labrum tear, and this is their current injury report.
Yikes. The Grizzlies have endured one of the most snakebitten seasons in recent memory. If you’re into silver linings, the rash of injuries has allowed Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane to get valuable on-ball opportunities that should help them down the line, and Jackson has been forced to play center where he projects best long-term if he can ever figure out how to grab a rebound. The Grizzlies are on pace to hit 30.3 wins, which is kind of impressive considering their injury report is a stone-cold lock for the playoffs.