Ranking every NFL first-round QB by how likely they are to make the Pro Bowl

Six NFL teams drafted a quarterback in the first round last spring with the hopes of them becoming franchise players one day. While Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are expected to start games day one, the four non-Heisman Trophy winners of Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix may have to wait their turn for their chances to lead their teams. All were drafted to be the guy, right?

The last time we had six quarterbacks go in the first round was during the 1983 NFL Draft. Three became Pro Football Hall of Famers in John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino. Ken O'Brien went to a pair of Pro Bowls with the New York Jets. Tony Eason quarterbacked the New England Patriots to their first Super Bowl appearance. At least Todd Blackledge is one helluva college football game analyst...

So what I want to do today is to rank all six first-round quarterbacks taken in the 2024 NFL Draft based on the chances I think they have of making it to at least one Pro Bowl in their career. The best part in this is I could be totally wrong. Look at the 2018 NFL Draft. Lamar Jackson is a hall of famer. Josh Allen is on his way. Baker Mayfield is very good, too. Sam Darnold is a guy. Josh Rosen stunk...

Let's start with a guy with a low ceiling in a bad situation I don't think any of these guys would thrive in.

6. Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix

To be fair, I like all six of these quarterbacks to some degree. There is upside to be had with all of them. However, I haven't liked what the Denver Broncos have been about ever since Peyton Manning retired. Nobody else would go on record to say they had a first-round grade on former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix other than Denver. Man, do they love this guy. I'm afraid he'll be fed to the wolves.

It is the combination of Sean Payton being one of the most overrated head coaches in NFL history, George Paton resembling Frightened Inmate No. 2 more than an NFL general manager, and above all else, Nix not seeming to be one for the spotlight. I thought he loved playing in big games at Auburn. He actually hated them. Nix shined against middling Pac-12 teams at Oregon in a favorable offense.

I think he'll beat out Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson to be decent, but I don't see a Pro Bowl for him.

5. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye

I would love to see Drake Maye make a Pro Bowl as the star quarterback of the New England Patriots, but I'm not so sure. One of my favorite players growing up was Drew Bledsoe. He was so awesome playing for Bill Parcells before he got hurt and Tom Brady took over. The rest is history, but I think the depth of the AFC at the quarterback position, as well as where the Patriots fit into it hurts Maye a ton.

His talent is absolutely tremendous, but I felt where he landed absolutely mattered. I may love Alex Van Pelt as the Patriots' new offensive coordinator, but it remains to be seen if Jerod Mayo is a good head coach, as well as what Eliot Wolf can do in an elevated front-office role. I am not ruling out Maye ever making it to a Pro Bowl, but he could get rag dolled in New England like Jim Plunkett once did...

If Maye went to Washington instead of Jayden Daniels, he would be higher than only fifth on this list.

4. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

We have arrived at my team's franchise quarterback of the future in Michael Penix Jr. This is hard to judge because I love Penix's talent and leadership traits, but the Atlanta Falcons' starting quarterback for the next two years will be Kirk Cousins at the very least. Atlanta may be a playoff-caliber team over the next few seasons, but Penix will be pushing 30 by the time it is his chance to play for them.

While I think the roster around him is much better already than what Bo Nix has in Denver and what Drake Maye inherited in New England, I really wonder if time and opportunity will be on Penix's side. Then again, Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young, and I guess technically, Jordan Love, all had to wait their turn to be Pro Bowlers. Love is still waiting for his, but the Green Bay Packers' blueprint is Atlanta's.

This could go either way, but I remain skeptical about this given Atlanta's inherent dysfunction.

3. Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy

I went back and forth between Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy for the third most likely rookie quarterback to make a Pro Bowl in their career. The reason I went with the Minnesota Vikings quarterback is because I think he will be thrust into action far sooner than will Penix. It may be a baptism by fire for McCarthy as a rookie, but he does have many great receivers to throw the ball to.

To me, McCarthy feels like a more talented version of Brock Purdy, who will remain a perennial Pro Bowl candidate with the San Francisco 49ers as long as Kyle Shanahan is their head coach. I trust Kevin O'Connell to coach McCarthy up, but I cannot say the same for my belief in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to surround him with enough talent. For poise reasons, I sense McCarthy gets one or two.

Of the six quarterbacks taken in the first round way back in 1983, McCarthy is the Ken O'Brien.

2. Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams

There are only three ways Caleb Williams doesn't make a Pro Bowl in his professional career. Either he gets hurt, the Chicago Bears ruin him or he is the 21st century version of Jeff George. Since I think he is closer to being Cam Newton, I'd say he gets to at least three during his first decade as an NFL quarterback. He may not be as successful as he was in college, but the talent is simply undeniable.

Besides Newton, I would say Williams may compare favorable to Matthew Stafford. All three were former No. 1 overall picks out of traditional powers. Newton and Stafford had to overcome adversity during their first few years in the league before breaking through. The same will be tasked with Williams. The wins may not come easily, but he is going to put up numbers with Chicago.

It would not shock me if Williams was a Pro Bowler as a rookie after leading Chicago to the playoffs.

1. Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels

I am sticking my neck out there by saying Jayden Daniels will win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and be a first-time Pro Bowler this season with the Washington Commanders. I don't know if this is a playoff team, but I am buying all the Commanders stuck I can get my hands on before it is too late. Daniels is a dual-threat playmaker playing in a Kliff Kingsbury offense for Dan Quinn. This is fantastic!

Kingsbury is not Kyle Shanahan, but Daniels may be more talented than peak Matt Ryan who won NFL MVP with my Atlanta Falcons. The Commanders may be a year away, but I would not be shocked if Washington or Kingsbury's former team are in the playoffs come 2025. If anyone goes worst-to-first this season, it might be the Commanders. Daniels is about to be a superstar in the nation's capital.

My comp for Daniels was some variation of Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson. Both are Pro Bowlers.