Sean Payton’s ‘realistic’ draft plan is straight out of fantasy land

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton made his expectations clear when he arrived at Mile High Stadium.

"I'm going to be pissed off if this is not a playoff team," Payton told Jarrett Bell of USA TODAY Sports.

The Broncos finished with an 8-9 record in Payton's first year as head coach. Although it was their best season in seven years, they were not a playoff team. In Payton's wrath, Denver dismantled their roster. Denver cleared $47 million in salary cap space by releasing safety Justin Simmons and tight end Chris Manhertz, restructuring deals with right tackle Mike McGlinchey and wide receiver Tim Patrick, and trading wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns.

Despite all of the departures, one item remains on top of Denver's shopping list: a quarterback who can operate Payton's complex offense.

So far, the Broncos have done little to address the glaring need at the quarterback position. Jarrett Stidham and Ben DeNucci have been in place to serve as Denver's top quarterbacks ever since the team released quarterback Russell Wilson, and the best available quarterbacks have already been signed or traded. As the options continue to dwindle, the Broncos will likely focus on the 2024 NFL Draft to find their next quarterback.

Sean Payton suggests Denver Broncos could trade up in 2024 NFL Draft

At the NFL's annual meeting, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport asked Payton how realistic it was for the Broncos to trade up in the 2024 NFL Draft to select one of the top quarterback prospects.

"Realistic," Payton responded.

While that may excite Broncos fans, it won't be easy for Denver to trade up in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Broncos currently hold the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but they have less draft capital than any other team selecting in the top 15. The Broncos have just six selections in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Broncos don't have a second-round draft pick. They traded that selection to the New Orleans Saints as part of the trade to acquire Payton. Their next selection isn't until the No. 76 overall pick in the third round, a pick that originally belonged to the Saints. After that, they don't pick again until the No. 122 overall pick in the fourth round, which they acquired from the Miami Dolphins as part of the trade for defensive end Bradley Chubb.

The No. 12 overall pick isn't high enough to select one of the top-tier quarterback prospects in this year's draft class. The Chicago Bears are going to select USC's Caleb Willians with the first overall pick. The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots are expected to select LSU's Jayden Daniels and North Carolina's Drake Maye with the second and third picks.

After that, things get interesting. The Arizona Cardinals currently hold the fourth overall pick, and Payton alluded to a potential trade with Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort.

"It's good to be Monti in Arizona today," Payton said.

With such little draft capital, trading up to the fourth overall pick would necessitate trading future first- and second-round picks, or trading a combination of players and draft picks. The San Francisco 49ers made a similar trade to move up to the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and that cost them three first-round picks.

"It's hard to predict what that cost is, and yet I certainly wouldn't say it's unrealistic and we'll pay close attention to it," Payton said about moving up in the draft.

If any team would know the risk of investing too heavily in one quarterback, it's the Broncos. After all, Russell Wilson's acquisition and contract extension will be remembered as one of the worst in league history, and Denver will pay for it for years to come.

Despite the $85 million in dead money from Wilson's release, the Broncos still have roughly $22.5 million in salary cap space.