SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch: Could 6 teams get in?

Without question, one of the best parts about being a fan of an SEC team is that it's truly the best conference in college football. The Big Ten may try to argue, but I will leave them with this: How many Big Ten teams will make the expanded College Football Playoff this year? I think as many as four, but it will likely be closer to three. So what about the SEC?

It's still insanely early in the 2024 college football season, but in every CFP projection I've completed up to this point, I've included at least five SEC teams. Through the first two weeks of the season, I have that number at six. Of course, most of these teams will have to play each other. For now, I don't think a 9-3 team in the Big Ten or SEC wil get in, but if a team were to go 10-2, that feels like a guarantee.

Projected College Football Playoff field

Heading into Week 3, here are the 12 teams I would have in the expanded College Football Playoff.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) (SEC champion)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) (Big Ten champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (2-0) (ACC champion)
4. Utah Utes (2-0) (Big 12 champion)
5. Texas Longhorns (2-0) (SEC runner-up)
6. Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) (SEC at-large)
7. Ole Miss Rebels (2-0) (SEC at-large)
8. USC Trojans (2-0) (Big Ten runner-up)
9. Missouri Tigers (2-0) SEC at-large)
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) (Big Ten at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) (SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (1-1) (Mountain West champion/Group of Five champion)

You'll have your locks—Georgia, Texas, maybe Ole Miss—but what about those teams on the playoff bubble in the SEC? Missouri? Alabama? I've broken the league down into a few categories, and the bubble teams are interesting to say the least.

SEC bubble watch

College Football Playoff Locks

Georgia Bulldogs (2-0)

I may be biased, but my beloved Georgia Bulldogs look to be the most complete team in the country. There is nothing this team cannot do. What does give me some trepidation long-term is the Dawgs have a difficult schedule. They have to play Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas this season. Then again, the Crimson Tide, Rebels, Volunteers and Longhorns also have to play Georgia this year.

Texas Longhorns (2-0)

If I am not allowed to pick Georgia as my projected national champion, then I am going all-in on Texas. Steve Sarkisian is the perfect leader for this program. Texas is no longer incredibly decadent like they once were near the end of Mack Brown's tenure. This is a damn good football team across the board. The defense is better than expected. My only concern for this team is Quinn Ewers' health.

Tennessee Volunteers (2-0)

Did you see what Tennessee did to North Carolina State in Charlotte last week? That was awesome! Nico Iamaleava looks to be special, but is still trying to learn the ropes in his first year as a starter. I would not be shocked if he won the Heisman Trophy next season. The Vols' defense is menacing. I had this team slated to go 11-1. That isn't changing. This is a playoff team, but not yet a champion.

Ole Miss Rebels (2-0)

I messed up, and I regret it. All offseason long, I said Ole Miss was one of seven College Football Playoff locks. I had them going 10-2 to start the season, but a pair of costly losses had them on the outside looking in my final preseason projection. I feel stupid, and this offense is contagious. Here we are now: Entertain us, Rebels. Lane Kiffin is in his bag, and Jaxson Dart could win the Heisman Trophy.

College Football Playoff Bubble Teams

Missouri Tigers (2-0)

As you can see, I have Missouri as the No. 9 seed this week. I love the job Eliah Drinkwitz has done to give this SEC program some serious bite. I had Mizzou going 9-3 and being on the outside looking in at the playoff in the preseason. Should the Tigers get the best of the Boston College Eagles this week, I have a very difficult time seeing them doing any worse than 10-2. That record will get them in.

Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0)

I could be totally wrong in a few weeks should Alabama win decidedly over Georgia in Tuscaloosa. However, I don't think this team has earned the No. 4 overall spot in the latest AP Top 25 Poll. Kalen DeBoer is a fantastic head coach and Jalen Milroe is one of my favorite quarterbacks in college football. I have Alabama in this week as the No. 11 seed, but I don't feel good about it after USF...

Oklahoma Sooners (2-0)

Despite being 2-0, I am completely out on Oklahoma this season. Initially, I had the Sooners going 6-6 in their first season as members of the SEC. I thought that was wacky, and made them two wins better at 8-4. After seeing how much they struggled vs. a terrible Houston team, I have concerns. Tulane could beat them this weekend, but for now, OU is a huge brand and Jackson Arnold is a stud!

LSU Tigers (1-1)

The team I had making the College Football Playoff over Ole Miss to start the season was the LSU Tigers. I thought having the head-to-head tiebreaker would get them in over the Rebels. While LSU could still beat Ole Miss later this season, I did not expect for the Bayou Bengals to fall in Las Vegas to USC. That loss could come back to haunt them, but this is Brian Kelly's pop year as their head coach.

Texas A&M Aggies (1-1)

I am not quite ready to cross Texas A&M off entirely, but the home loss to what I thought was a great Notre Dame game looks considerably worse after what happened in South Bend last week. My hope is that Mike Elko will be able to provide the stability necessary to get the most out of Conner Weigman's obvious talent. Then again, at some point, talent has to actually do something. I'm waiting.

Fun to Watch, Not CFP Caliber

South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0)

Admittedly, I may have undersold what this year's South Carolina team could be capable of. I had them going something like 4-8 with their difficult schedule. And even though they are hosting ESPN's College GameDay this week, I will be taking the LSU Tigers to beat them. Shane Beamer may be able to will this team to a bowl game, but South Carolina does not have the talent to make the playoff now.

Vanderbilt Commodores (2-0)

It sounds crazy, but Vanderbilt might actually be a bowl team this year. Diego Pavia is the ultimate gamer at quarterback. I did not see them beating Virginia Tech at home. Now at 2-0, can the 'Dores get four more wins? Frankly, outside of Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas, the rest of their games are fairly winnable. The big question is if Vanderbilt will be ready to play in SEC play this year.

Not a College Football Playoff Team in 2024

Auburn Tigers (1-1)

That was bad... Not that losing at home to Cal is any slight on the Golden Bears and the program Justin Wilcox is overseeing in Berekely, but you have to win that non-conference game at home if you want to be taken seriously in the College Football Playoff picture. Auburn may not be ready to arrive to the party just yet. It may take Hugh Freeze three years to get this Tigers team to his liking.

Arkansas Razorbacks (1-1)

It was fun while it lasted, but I still had the Arkansas Razorbacks going 3-9 this year for a reason. Yes, the offense looks to be much better than I expected with Taylen Green running point for Bobby Petrino, but I feel this team is limited with a true CEO-type head coach at the helm of the program in Sam Pittman. A win over Oklahoma State would have changed my tune, but adapt or die, Razorbacks.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1)

This was always going to be a transitional year for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. While I have a strong feeling that Jeff Lebby will get a few more wins than expected this season with a relatively soft schedule, they might come up a win or two short of a bowl game. Losing to another Power Four bottom-feeder in Arizona State in the non-conference slate means they have no shot at the playoff now.

Florida Gators (1-1)

Florida still has the hardest schedule in the country. While Miami may be the best team in the ACC this year, the regular-season slate is so beyond unforgiving for the Gators, it is ridiculous. They still have to play Florida State and UCF in the non-conference, as well as teams like Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas to finish SEC play. They have Texas A&M up next and Tennessee in a little bit as well.

Kentucky Wildcats (1-1)

If Auburn losing at home to Cal was bad, Kentucky getting its clock cleaned at home by South Carolina was brutal. Those teams may not have been separated by much at the start of the season, but to bench Georgia quarterback Brock Vandagriff before the end of Week 2 suggests it may be time to pack it in, Big Blue Nation, and get ready for basketball season. Mark Stoops is on notice!

One thing I do know is that the SEC College Football Playoff bubble watch will have changed next week.